Replies

Stood down for a day to take the oldest grandkid XC skiing. Then all heck starts to break out globally.

Globalism / Great Reset –

On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) released an update to the list of medicines that should be stockpiled in case of what it called “radiological and nuclear emergencies.” According to the report, almost half of the organization’s member nations were unequipped for such an emergency, and the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have highlighted the need to ensure that people have access to necessary medications and supplies. The document supersedes a 2007 report and lists the medications that should be stockpiled and how to store and manage them.

OBSERVATION – As a prepper, review of my supplies status is a key item to identify outdated materials and shortfalls. The question some in the interwebs are asking is the WHO telegraphing an impeding event?

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The Minnesota House passed legislation after seven hours of debate late Thursday night that would require the state’s electricity grid to be 100% carbon-free in 17 years.

OBSERVATION – The WEF advances its agenda bit by bit, using its useful idiots on the left to carry the water.

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The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) issued an alert to taxpayers on Tuesday, reminding them that they must report all digital asset-related income and answer a new digital asset question on their 2022 federal income tax return or face consequences such as delayed refunds or even penalties.

OBSERVATION – I fully expect an increased ‘squeeze’ on the crypto currencies over the course of the rest of this year, especially as the govt likely prepares for the roll out of CBDCs, designed to further govt oversight and control of American spending.

Wuhan virus –

Following the release of Pfizer big wig Jordon Trishton Walker secretly-recorded admission that Pfizer is mutating COVID-19 to create vaccines, James O’Keefe, confronted him and hilarity ensued.

Walker, who was described in the video as a Director of Research and Development, becomes combative with a physical confrontation eventually breaking out.

Pfizer released a late-Friday press release regarding the incident. In a lengthy statement, the pharmaceutical company claims it does not perform gain-of-function research. However it is clear that the company delves into a boatload of doublespeak and redefining terms to otherwise accept credit for essentially conducting gain of function research.

OBSERVATION - This is obfuscatory and confusing at best, and given Pfizer’s history of misleading the public (costing them billions in fines), there’s no reason to take the company’s word for anything.

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California’s controversial COVID-19 misinformation law, which bars doctors from providing “misinformation” or “disinformation” related to COVID-19, is an unprecedented effort by those in power to block doctors from sharing their views on COVID-19 topics, including on vaccines, with their patients, an attorney says. And lawmakers had pivoted the initial bill from its true, intended purpose to be able to pass it.

A judge granted a preliminary injunction (pdf) late Wednesday, temporarily blocking the law from being enforced pending further litigation in two lawsuits. Jaffe is involved in one of the cases—Hoang v. Bonta. The other case is Hoeg v. Newsom. Both had argued, in part, that AB 2098 is unconstitutional under the First and Fourteenth Amendments of the U.S. Constitution.

OBSERVATION – kalifornia doubles down on the wuhan insanity, proving once again the plandemic is only a vehicle to exercise more power and silence real scientific debate and inquiry.

Economy –

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has declared a regional emergency in eight states due to a shortage of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel caused by the combination of low production and high demand. The agency, a component of the Department of Transportation responsible for regulating the trucking industry, made the declaration in response to the closure of a refinery in Colorado and the exceptionally severe winter weather that is causing demand for fuel to surge.

On Dec. 24, the Suncor Refinery in Commerce City, Colorado, unexpectedly shut down due to “extreme and record-setting weather,” according to the company’s press release. Suncor claimed the refinery isn’t expected to resume full operations until late into the first quarter of 2023.

OBSERVATION – No significant expansion of our refinery capability/capacity has been added in decades as any growth has been hamstrung by increasingly restrictive environmental laws and the volatile nature of the oil industry. Plus it has been cheaper to import gasoline/diesel from sources less hamstrung. So the loss of just one refinery can create serious ripples across the supply sector.
BTW – see Misc below – another arctic blast is targeting the country.

Invasion of Illegals –

Border Patrol agents in the Swanton Sector, which includes all of Vermont, in the first three months of fiscal 2023 apprehended more foreign nationals entering the country illegally than they did in the past two fiscal years combined, according to sector chief Robert Garcia.

The sector leads the northern border in illicit border crossings, whose agents continue to see a record number of foreign nationals illegally entering upstate New York, Vermont and New Hampshire after flying to Canada from at least 19 countries.

From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2022, Swanton Sector agents saw a 743% increase in apprehensions and encounters compared to the same period last year, Garcia said. Combined apprehensions and encounters in the first three months of fiscal 2023 have already surpassed those of the entire fiscal 2022.
In December, Border Patrol agents apprehended more people than ever before, 441, according to data obtained by The Center Square from a Border Patrol agent. Agents also reported 14 who turned back to Canada and 135 who evaded capture and entered the U.S. illegally. Law enforcement doesn’t know who or where they are.

https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/vermont-border-patrol-apprehensions-first-3-months-fiscal-2023

OBSERVATION – Most eyes have been on the southern border, but the Canadian border is far less guarded based on the assumption that Canada will more strongly protect itself against these transient illegals, thus reducing our need to crossing checkpoints.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Memphis PD on Friday released the body cam footage from the police stop of Tyre Nichols, who died three days after the incident. Protests / riots broke out in varying degrees in about a couple dozen major cities with the worst centered in Memphis TN. NYC, LA, Seattle and Portland saw higher levels of violence.

Five black policemen have been charged for murder. However, that didn’t stop MSM outlets like CNN from claiming that this was a ‘racist’ and “white supremacy,” based attack.

OBSERVATION – The attempt to tie ‘racism’ and ‘white supremacy’ into the mix given the police officers AND the chief of police are black seems to be a desperation attempt to throw gas on the fire. This incident has hit the leftist mantra of elimination of police forces though. Antifa has quickly joined the mix as one of their key elements is the elimination of police as well.

However, the absence of white/non-black police officers in the mix may work to cool off protests. Another mitigating factor is that the ‘national’ leadership of BLM is still hit with its own scandal – inhibiting national coordination.

I’m certain that if that were the case, given the short fuse Antifa seems to be working on combined with BLM involvement could result in more substantial riots. Additionally, this may begin a restructure of the national level BLM movement to new leadership.

One last note – arctic weather enroute to the eastern half of the nation (with serious sub-zero temps and even colder wind chills) may serve to deter prolonged protests.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

AT&T’s DirecTV de-platformed NewsMax, over alleged contract renewal disputes. Conservatives have noted that after stripping its systems of two (OAN being the other) of the three conservative news channels, DirecTV continues to carry 22 liberal news channels, many with low ratings and all getting hefty license fees.

OBSERVATION – Shaping of the 2024 information battlefield has clearly begun and this is just one of the many battlegrounds – access to the TV media.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Republican National Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel won re-election Friday after months of contentious fighting within the party from conservatives who argued that she was a Republican in name only. She also announced that this would be her last term.

OBSERVATION - RNC throws itself into a death spiral even more willingly. This will give her and the eGOP a fourth election to totally muddle up and continue to lose key conflicts between now and then – while she spends lavishly on herself.

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The Pelosi officer cam video has been released, including video of the break in to the residence. Though it answers some questions, it has raised others.

China –

Standing down from the war watch as there just isn’t enough activity that I’ve seen to suggest that China will institute an initial blockade to ‘sway’ Taiwan to the negotiating table.

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In an internal memorandum that first emerged on social media on Friday, and was later confirmed as genuine by the Pentagon, the head of the Air Mobility Command, General Mike Minihan, said the main goal should be to deter “and, if required, defeat” China.

“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan said.
Laying out his reasoning, Minihan said Taiwan’s presidential elections next year would offer Chinese President Xi Jinping an excuse for military aggression, while the United States would be distracted by its own contest for the White House.

OBSERVATION - The logic is sound and even though China didn’t initiate a blockade of sorts now, that option is still the most likely of the intial gambits China could use to try to get Taiwan to surrender without a war. A blockade to choke off Taiwan during their election plus chaos in the US during our election cycle is very plausible.

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Wang Huning is expected to become the deputy director of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, the party’s top decision-making body on China’s Taiwan policy. The top director is Xi.

One source knowledgeable of China-Taiwan relations noted that Wang will be tasked with writing a theoretical unification strategy fit for the Xi era.

“One may assume that a threat of China using force to unify Taiwan is imminent, but this is not the case. The first step is to launch a new theory that will replace Deng’s one country, two systems. Then pressure will be put on Taiwan based on it,” the source explained.

The source expects this theory to become a yardstick with which to measure progress and to decide if a military operation is necessary.

Xi wants to chalk up an achievement in regard to Taiwan at any cost over the next five years, which would help his quest to seek a fourth term as head of the party in 2027.

OBSERVATION – The tea leaves are not becoming any clearer, but China can play the long game, especially to avoid a costly and risky military action. A 2025-2027 window is plausible (see other note above) but global crises (like Ukraine) may allow China to accelerate its plans.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin & former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia against the backdrop of Russian military failures in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION – Maneuvering to replace putin and pin the massive Ukrainian failure on him. Dangerous business continuing to simmer.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Though largely RUMINT, there are persistent reports that a mobilization of drug addicts was included in the recent mobilization. According to some sources, drug use has continued even while on the front lines.

- Persistent rumors that Putin is prepared to order a second wave of Russian mobilization which includes the coerced recruitment of convicts and not-yet-citizens in addition to the drug addicts. In addition to this recruitment strategy is the expansion of eligibility requirements. Ukrainian intelligence officials predict that Russia may announce a plan to mobilize an additional 500,000 soldiers “in the coming days.”

- The Wagner Group is facing difficulties finding new recruits after suffering huge casualties in eastern Ukraine, according to reports. It’s said to be trying to find recruits in Central Asian prisons and possibly even merging with Ruslan Kadyrov’s Chechen forces. Wagner reportedly has attempted to recruit more inmates without much success. The prisoners are well aware of the use of their fellow convicts as cannon fodder and now mostly refuse to go.

- A cemetery used to bury Wagner fighters has been mapped via commercial satellite imagery and has grown nearly 10 fold over the past few months. According to Reuters, there were around 200 graves at the site on the outskirts of Bakinskaya village in Krasnodar region when Reuters visited in late January. Videos and photographs of the graves first appeared on social media channels in the Krasnodar region in December. Reuters geolocated these images to the Bakinskaya cemetery and reviewed satellite imagery of the site from Maxar Technologies and Capella Space. Satellite pictures show that the Wagner plot was empty in the summer, had three rows of graves by the end of November and was three-quarters full by early January. Virtually the entire plot was used by Jan. 24. Analysis suggests that Bakinskaya cemetery seen in satellite pictures, as well as a nearby secondary location in the nearby town of Goryachy Klyuch, may hold around 1,000 dead Wagner soldiers.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Status quo remains along the eastern front with very little changes to who controls what territory. There has been a lot of noise from the Russian milbloggers about massive breakthroughs, but there is no evidence to support their claims and are most likely propaganda for the homeland.

OUTLOOK ——
Both sides are essentially in a operational ‘pause’ as they scramble to get forces and equipment into positions for expected offensives/counteroffensives.

Smaller level fighting along the LOC in eastern Ukraine is to be expected to continue.

Israel –

A quick recap - Nine Palestinians were killed during heavy clashes between gunmen and Israeli troops in Jenin. This resulted in the PIJ launching a couple of rockets towards Israel that were easily intercepted. IAF responded by pounding the snot out of some Hamas underground facilities.

Then things escalated - Five men, aged 20, 25, 30, 50, and 60, and two women, aged 60 and 70, killed in the shooting attack in a Jerusalem synagogue. Wounded victims include 15 y/o boy, 24 y/o man, and 60 y/o woman. Israeli police killed the culprit as he tried to escape and the pali contingent in Jenin broke out in massive celebrations over the murders.

To make matters worse (for Israel) the synagogue shooting happened on Holocaust Memorial Day, which commemorates the six million Jews and other victims who were killed in the Holocaust by the Nazi regime in Germany.

In an initial response, Israel swept into the Jenin community and arrested at least 45 suspected terrorists.

OBSERVATION – Rest assured that a stronger Israeli response is in the works.
NOTE – The airstrikes hit Hamas facilities, not PIJ. Hamas did not crack down on Islamic Jihad to stop them from launching rockets and as the defacto rulers of Gaza, Israel holds them accountable for any action by other terror groups..

Iran –

Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to build “several” nuclear weapons if it chooses, according to a United Nations’ top nuclear official. For months, nonproliferation experts have suggested Iran had enough uranium enriched up to 60% to build at least one nuclear weapon.

OBSERVATION – For a nuclear weapon, purity has to reach 90%+ levels, so the “enough” statement must refer to having enough 60% to make the final jump to 90%.

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Azerbaijani security sources claim Iranian special services are behind the terrorist attack against the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran. Employees of the Azerbaijani embassy in Iran are ‘leaving the country’ following today’s attack against the embassy, diplomatic sources tell Haqqin

OBSERVATION – Iran has been looking to pick a fight with Azeris for a number of years now and that has increased with the recent Azeri/Armenian fight. One of Iran’s word curses is that Azeri is a puppet of Israel – who is the second largest supplier of military hardware to the country. However, coordinating an attack on an official embassy is really looking to step over the escalation line.

Misc of Note –

An arctic blast looming this weekend has the potential to be the most significant winter cooldown for the northern tier of the country since December.
The FOX Forecast Center said highs will be 25 to 40 degrees below average Saturday and Sunday for much of the central and northern Plains and Midwest, with highs more than 30 degrees below average from Montana to western Kansas on Sunday. This will correspond to temperatures staying in the teens and single digits.

OBSERVATION – Bracing here in the Redoubt as temps have dropped over 10 degrees in the past hour. Hopefully people learned from the December arctic blast and are better prepared.

Nice, brisk -23 here in my corner of the Redoubt and likely to go a little lower before sunrise. This is still a lot better than the -36 experienced just before Christmas last month.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The Supreme Court of Vermont ruled Friday that noncitizens in the state’s capital city of Montpellier will be allowed to vote in local elections. The court ruled that noncitizens voting in municipal elections does not violate the state’s constitution, stating that citizenship requirements only apply to federal elections.

“The statute allowing noncitizens to vote in local Montpelier elections does not violate Chapter II, § 42 because that constitutional provision does not apply to local elections,” the New Hampshire Supreme Court wrote in its ruling.

At the federal level, House Democrats have pushed for an amendment that would remove citizenship requirements for voting in U.S. elections.

OBSERVATION – Dilution of citizens rights and the move for a ‘global’ citizenry. Starts small. Already been efforts on the left coast for similar. The WEF et al seek to eliminate all national sovernty and that includes voting rights.

Wuhan virus –

Multiple nations now are ceasing administering the jab to the 20 – 50 year range, citing the association of the mRNA ‘vaccine’ to the increased health risks and excessive death rates.

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Pfizer still being covered by the MSM over its latest scandal publicized by Project Veritas.

Economy –

A December report showing the massive drop in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion last year and is the second-largest drop since 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression has drawn concern by economists.

Heritage economist E.J. Antoni said.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gdp-report-reveals-ominous-great-depression-warning-sign-1932

“To keep up with inflation, consumers are depleting their savings and burning through the “stimulus” checks they received during 2020 and 2021. Credit card debt continues growing, while savings plummeted $1.6 trillion last year, falling below 2009 levels.”.

OBSERVATION - The general consensus seems to be that with depleted savings and credit availability, any recession will become exceptionally hard as those individual resources won’t be available for use.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Protests / riots continued in varying degrees in about a couple dozen major cities with the worst centered in Memphis TN. Once again, NYC, LA, Seattle and Portland saw higher levels of violence. In LA particularly, the police were ordered to stand down.

OBSERVATION – Antifa is taking the lead in many of these cities – particularly their stronghold blues. Elimination of the police is one of their cardinal doctrines and this plays into it well. Black racists are still trying to spin the killing into some sort of white supremecy bleat, although all the officers involved were black, predominantly black city council and a black police chief.

LA’s police standdown likely cost businesses millions as ‘protestors’ broke windows and looted without police intervention. Bad precident.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The dry docks, three at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard & Intermediate Maintenance Facility in Bremerton, Wash., and the delta pier at the Trident Refit Facility in Bangor, Wash., are still certified to overhaul nuclear submarines, but the Navy has decided to keep the dry docks empty pending further investigation.

“The seismic assessment and expert validation enhances the Navy’s knowledge of the potential issues associated with a large earthquake occurring during a submarine maintenance availability,” reads a statement from the service.
“With this new knowledge, the Navy determined that it needs to remediate specific vulnerabilities to ensure the safety of the shipyard workforce, sailors, the local public, the environment and the submarines.”

OBSERVATION – This will have a significant impact on the necessary maintenance of our submarine force and it will be in effect for a long time if any retrofitting is deemed necessary.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperature remain around freezing with an increase in snow. For the soils to properly freeze up, subfreezing temperature need to be sustained for a longer period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Status quo remains along the eastern front with very little changes to who controls what territory. Reports out that Russia is cycling out Wagner Group forces and replacing them with regular Russian forces at Bahkmut.

OUTLOOK ——
Battles will continue in the same areas, with no significant changes. The battle for Bahkmut may be changing in Ukraine’s favor with the swapping out of Wagner Group for regular Russian elements. FWIW, though brutal, Wagner had a better leadership core. The regular troops will be having less experienced and competent leaders and likely more strained vertical communications. All this means that continued attacks to seize Bahkmut will likely be less effective.

Israel –

Blamed for the attack overnight on Iran, see below

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In response to rising terror attacks/shootings by Palestinians in east Jerusalem, Police there have called on citizens with firearm license to carry their weapons. One terror attack recently that resulted in the wounding of two Israelis was stopped by another armed Israeli.

Iran –

What the heck happened in Iran overnight? This much I’ve been able to piece together. There were apparently several (by some counts a dozen) explosions at Iranian ammunition, petroleum and other sites. The confusion exploded as the interwebs started to see OLD videos of things that happened years ago in Iran being posted as just happening.

Multiple Middle Eastern media sources tonight are reporting that Israel has launched a Military Operation against Iran but so far nothing has been officially announced by the Israeli Government or Military. The weapons have been referred to as “micro” drones, drones and possibly cruise missiles (a type of drone). Iran claimed it shot them all down, but the explosions speak otherwise. Iran also reportedly deployed fighters over Tehran and there were reports of some AA gunfire.

Below is the best list of locations hit that I’ve been able to put together. All reportedly happened in a relatively close proximity time wise.

1. Isfahan at an ammunition factory facility (confirmed by the Iranian govt – a Shahed drone plant is also located near there, though reportedly not hit)
2. Azarshahr in East Azerbaijan Province (massive fire)
3. Karaj and Tehran (footage circulating, unclear)
4. Khoy West Azerbaijan Province – earthquake (confirmed - magnitude 5.9 ) caused exploding transformers ?
5. Hamedan & Dezful (unconfirmed)

As noted above, the middle eastern media has immediately pinned the blame on Israel. However, many have noted that though these strikes appear to have been well planned and executed, the TARGET SET is un-Israeli, given recent statements by Israeli govt. If Israel were to launch a strike on Iran, they would be targeting facilities of immediate danger to Israel such as nuclear facilities, missile bases, govt command and control, etc. and not the targets being reported. Israel would have one opportunity for a first strike and would make every bomb count.

As I noted on Saturday’s post, the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran was attacked with one killed and two wounded. Azerbaijan has blamed Iranian Republican guards for the assault and reportedly is in the process of evacuation its personnel out of Iran. The two countries have been engaged in some pretty nasty verbal exchanges most recently surrounding the Azeri attack on Armenia and how Iranian commerce was blocked from Armenia. Iran accused the Azeri’s of being Israeli – friendly as Israel is one of the leading suppliers of military material.

However, an attack on an embassy is next to declaring war, and the Azeri’s may have seen it as such. They have a lot of experience and technical expertise gained from the Turks and Israel to pull off such an attack. Many have noted that some of the targets are very close to the Azerbaijan border. The target set would be more suitable for a country like Azerbaijan to attack, making them the most likely culprit.

Also remember – the appearance of strength is critical in the arab mindset. If the Azeri’s pulled this off, Iran now looks very weak and could trigger escalation, though they may be using it to raise stakes with Israel.