Nice, brisk -23 here in my corner of the Redoubt and likely to go a little lower before sunrise. This is still a lot better than the -36 experienced just before Christmas last month.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Supreme Court of Vermont ruled Friday that noncitizens in the state’s capital city of Montpellier will be allowed to vote in local elections. The court ruled that noncitizens voting in municipal elections does not violate the state’s constitution, stating that citizenship requirements only apply to federal elections.
“The statute allowing noncitizens to vote in local Montpelier elections does not violate Chapter II, § 42 because that constitutional provision does not apply to local elections,” the New Hampshire Supreme Court wrote in its ruling.
At the federal level, House Democrats have pushed for an amendment that would remove citizenship requirements for voting in U.S. elections.
OBSERVATION – Dilution of citizens rights and the move for a ‘global’ citizenry. Starts small. Already been efforts on the left coast for similar. The WEF et al seek to eliminate all national sovernty and that includes voting rights.
Wuhan virus –
Multiple nations now are ceasing administering the jab to the 20 – 50 year range, citing the association of the mRNA ‘vaccine’ to the increased health risks and excessive death rates.
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Pfizer still being covered by the MSM over its latest scandal publicized by Project Veritas.
Economy –
A December report showing the massive drop in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion last year and is the second-largest drop since 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression has drawn concern by economists.
Heritage economist E.J. Antoni said.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gdp-report-reveals-ominous-great-depression-warning-sign-1932
“To keep up with inflation, consumers are depleting their savings and burning through the “stimulus” checks they received during 2020 and 2021. Credit card debt continues growing, while savings plummeted $1.6 trillion last year, falling below 2009 levels.”.
OBSERVATION - The general consensus seems to be that with depleted savings and credit availability, any recession will become exceptionally hard as those individual resources won’t be available for use.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Protests / riots continued in varying degrees in about a couple dozen major cities with the worst centered in Memphis TN. Once again, NYC, LA, Seattle and Portland saw higher levels of violence. In LA particularly, the police were ordered to stand down.
OBSERVATION – Antifa is taking the lead in many of these cities – particularly their stronghold blues. Elimination of the police is one of their cardinal doctrines and this plays into it well. Black racists are still trying to spin the killing into some sort of white supremecy bleat, although all the officers involved were black, predominantly black city council and a black police chief.
LA’s police standdown likely cost businesses millions as ‘protestors’ broke windows and looted without police intervention. Bad precident.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The dry docks, three at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard & Intermediate Maintenance Facility in Bremerton, Wash., and the delta pier at the Trident Refit Facility in Bangor, Wash., are still certified to overhaul nuclear submarines, but the Navy has decided to keep the dry docks empty pending further investigation.
“The seismic assessment and expert validation enhances the Navy’s knowledge of the potential issues associated with a large earthquake occurring during a submarine maintenance availability,” reads a statement from the service.
“With this new knowledge, the Navy determined that it needs to remediate specific vulnerabilities to ensure the safety of the shipyard workforce, sailors, the local public, the environment and the submarines.”
OBSERVATION – This will have a significant impact on the necessary maintenance of our submarine force and it will be in effect for a long time if any retrofitting is deemed necessary.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperature remain around freezing with an increase in snow. For the soils to properly freeze up, subfreezing temperature need to be sustained for a longer period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Status quo remains along the eastern front with very little changes to who controls what territory. Reports out that Russia is cycling out Wagner Group forces and replacing them with regular Russian forces at Bahkmut.
OUTLOOK ——
Battles will continue in the same areas, with no significant changes. The battle for Bahkmut may be changing in Ukraine’s favor with the swapping out of Wagner Group for regular Russian elements. FWIW, though brutal, Wagner had a better leadership core. The regular troops will be having less experienced and competent leaders and likely more strained vertical communications. All this means that continued attacks to seize Bahkmut will likely be less effective.
Israel –
Blamed for the attack overnight on Iran, see below
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In response to rising terror attacks/shootings by Palestinians in east Jerusalem, Police there have called on citizens with firearm license to carry their weapons. One terror attack recently that resulted in the wounding of two Israelis was stopped by another armed Israeli.
Iran –
What the heck happened in Iran overnight? This much I’ve been able to piece together. There were apparently several (by some counts a dozen) explosions at Iranian ammunition, petroleum and other sites. The confusion exploded as the interwebs started to see OLD videos of things that happened years ago in Iran being posted as just happening.
Multiple Middle Eastern media sources tonight are reporting that Israel has launched a Military Operation against Iran but so far nothing has been officially announced by the Israeli Government or Military. The weapons have been referred to as “micro” drones, drones and possibly cruise missiles (a type of drone). Iran claimed it shot them all down, but the explosions speak otherwise. Iran also reportedly deployed fighters over Tehran and there were reports of some AA gunfire.
Below is the best list of locations hit that I’ve been able to put together. All reportedly happened in a relatively close proximity time wise.
1. Isfahan at an ammunition factory facility (confirmed by the Iranian govt – a Shahed drone plant is also located near there, though reportedly not hit)
2. Azarshahr in East Azerbaijan Province (massive fire)
3. Karaj and Tehran (footage circulating, unclear)
4. Khoy West Azerbaijan Province – earthquake (confirmed - magnitude 5.9 ) caused exploding transformers ?
5. Hamedan & Dezful (unconfirmed)
As noted above, the middle eastern media has immediately pinned the blame on Israel. However, many have noted that though these strikes appear to have been well planned and executed, the TARGET SET is un-Israeli, given recent statements by Israeli govt. If Israel were to launch a strike on Iran, they would be targeting facilities of immediate danger to Israel such as nuclear facilities, missile bases, govt command and control, etc. and not the targets being reported. Israel would have one opportunity for a first strike and would make every bomb count.
As I noted on Saturday’s post, the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran was attacked with one killed and two wounded. Azerbaijan has blamed Iranian Republican guards for the assault and reportedly is in the process of evacuation its personnel out of Iran. The two countries have been engaged in some pretty nasty verbal exchanges most recently surrounding the Azeri attack on Armenia and how Iranian commerce was blocked from Armenia. Iran accused the Azeri’s of being Israeli – friendly as Israel is one of the leading suppliers of military material.
However, an attack on an embassy is next to declaring war, and the Azeri’s may have seen it as such. They have a lot of experience and technical expertise gained from the Turks and Israel to pull off such an attack. Many have noted that some of the targets are very close to the Azerbaijan border. The target set would be more suitable for a country like Azerbaijan to attack, making them the most likely culprit.
Also remember – the appearance of strength is critical in the arab mindset. If the Azeri’s pulled this off, Iran now looks very weak and could trigger escalation, though they may be using it to raise stakes with Israel.
Nice, brisk -28 here at the Redoubt. This should be the last supercold night for the rest of the season if long range forecasts are halfway correct.
Globalism / Great Reset –
North Korea, fraud, and financial losses are some of the dangers emanating from the cryptocurrency industry, according to a White Houseblog published on Jan. 27. It argued for enhanced oversight of cryptocurrencies more broadly, requesting help from financial regulatory bodies and Congressional lawmakers.
The blog—co-written by national security adviser Jake Sullivan, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Arati Prabhakar, and Council of Economic Advisors Chair Cecilia Rouse—outlined the administration’s strategy for mitigating the risks associated with cryptocurrencies.
“Privacy coins”—cryptocurrencies that algorithmically “wash” transactions to obfuscate their ownership history—appear to be in the sights of the Biden administration as well. The briefing linked to a 2022 report (pdf) that listed privacy coins under the “Malicious Acts” section of the report, mentioning that such tokens are the preferred medium of exchange for criminals and bad actors.
Proponents of the popular privacy coin Monero view the ability to transact with anonymity as one of the core tenets underpinning the crypto movement.
OBSERVATION – World govt must get rid of cryptos in order to seize control of all financial transactions for monitoring under the ESG. The privacy aspect of such exchanges currently stymies that effort. Here is an effort by the US – and similar taking place around the world – to generate justification for govt oversight and elimination of any anonymity as a step to enforce the CBDC efforts.
Economy –
The US Interior Department blocked Antofagasta’s Twin Metals mining project in northeast Minnesota, withdrawing 225,504 acres in Superior National Forest from leasing to mining companies through 2043. The Twin Metals project was expected to be a major source of copper and nickel. The only existing U.S. nickel mine is scheduled to close in 2025.
OBSERVATION – Just like with petroleum/fossil fuels, biden is trying to kill off the mining industry. Someone should tell him copper and nickel are critical for all the EVs he wants to see on the roads in our future. The actions can also be seen as another form of economic redistribution – causing us to rely on third world sources (with their hideous track record of environmental protection) and our $$ going there rather than develop resources here. We saw how foolhardy outsourcing critical supplies to other countries is when wuhan hit - this will be just another critical supply hit eventually as well.
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On Saturday, Connecticut-based Hillendale Farms egg farm burned down. Unconfirmed reports claim over 100,000 chickens died. The cause of the fire is unknown at this time.
OBSERVATION – Facility was the largest egg producers for Hillendale Farms and will impact the already stressed egg market further. Remember – eggs go into a lot of items, so the prices for a dozen eggs will also be reflected in food requiring the use of eggs as well. Some are looking at this as just another in a line of suspicious destructions of food processing and production facilities. I am wary of confirmation bias pushing these claims, but the reality is this is a major loss that will take a lot of time to rebuild and replace.
CW2/Domestic violence –
There were a few more protests overnight, but not as large as earlier. The leftists appear to be having problems spinning up the racist angle on the death. Police in Philadelphia turned out in greater numbers for the “celebration” of the Eagles’ win than they did the BLM/Antifa riots.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Robert Gates, former President Barack Obama’s Secretary of Defense, slammed politicians’ handling of classified information during an interview over the weekend where he also took a shot at President Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Ukraine.
When asked about recent classified document scandals that have engulfed Trump, Biden, and former Vice President Mike Pence, Gates said that the problem is that the people who are handling the documents are negligent.
“You have a legacy, I think, in Washington of sort of being a guy that sort of fixes sort of dumb problems. Meaning Like stuff — you’re like, “Why isn’t this fixed?” Todd continued. “So how would you [fix] this classified document situation that our politics finds itself in, is this something that the bureaucracy should fix? Or is there something more nefarious?”
“Well, I think – I think it’s about people being more responsible,” Gates responded. “I think there’s an element of carelessness. In some cases there may be intent to take the documents. I think maybe we ought to look at the way transitions take place, so that there’s a more orderly process for these classified documents.”
Gates warned back in 2019 that Biden had been “wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”
https://www.dailywire.com/news/obamas-secretary-of-defense-slams-biden-over-classified-doc-scandal-handling-of-ukraine-war
OBSERVATION - Gates makes a good point on people being more ‘responsible’ in their handling of classified materials. But he didn’t give biden an out on it either, questioning if it was an accident or on purpose. Gates has been a biden critic, but that the MSM is letting him out to speak against the classified scandal is just another indicator that the swamp may be in the mode to jettison biden and get a “better” canidate in line for 2024.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
All evidence indicates Russia is trying to initiate its offensive prior to Ukraine getting the western tanks up and into its formations.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing with an increase in snow. For the soils to properly freeze up, subfreezing temperature need to be sustained for a longer period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia has managed to capture some terrain north of Bahkmut and northwest of Soldar. This is the closest to a Russian breakout that they’ve had for a very long time. Advances could result in an encirclement of Bahkmut.
Otherwise, pretty much status quo along the LOC
OUTLOOK ——
Russia has gained a degree of initiative around Bahkmut but at a high cost to Russian forces. The continued bleeding of Russian recruits is going to compound its efforts to pull together an invasion force large enough to seize the Donbas.
Belarus -
Training areas continue to be active in the central and western regions of Belarus. Covert observers do not note activity that would indicate any thing other than training. No buildup on the southern Belarus border.
Israel –
Iranian drone attack – see update under Iran.
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Ongoing clashes in Al Issawiyah neighborhood E of Jerusalem City; Molotov Cocktails and firecrackers hurled at ISF. The escalation in Palestinian terrorism in recent days may create the necessity for sarge-scale Israeli military operations in the West Bank later this year a former defense official says.
Col. (res.) David Hacham, a senior research associate at the MirYam Institute and a former Arab relations adviser to seven Israeli defense ministers notes that “Terrorists are portrayed in Palestinian society as martyrs and heroes and are embraced as a symbol of the Palestinian struggle against Israel, while their families receive financial assistance from the Palestinian Authority. Palestinian society glorifies the dead terrorists, which encourages other young people to follow in their footsteps and join the cycle of terrorism against Israeli targets.”
Hacham also linked the latest escalation to events in Judea and Samaria, where on Thursday, Israeli security forces shot dead nine Palestinians—eight of them gunmen—in a firefight in Jenin as they broke up a Palestinian Islamic Jihad cell preparing large-scale, imminent terror attacks.
“These incidents are occurring against the backdrop of the P.A.’s [the Palestinian Authority’s] obvious weakness. The P.A. is struggling to control territory. It does not control Jenin, where its security forces are barred from entering. Similarly, P.A. control in Nablus and Hebron has been eroded to varying degrees. Under these conditions, the IDF operates in areas from which the P.A. is absent, and this further weakens its posture and authority and reveals its fragility,” he assessed.
Hacham also called attention to the fact that P.A. Chairman Mahmoud Abbas did not denounce the synagogue attack in Jerusalem in even the mildest terms. This lack of condemnation reflects the fierce anti-Israeli environment that prevails on the Palestinian street today, in which any condemnation “would be perceived negatively by Palestinians,” Hacham said.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=5867
OBSERVATION – I’ve noted that the increase in terror by groups like the PIJ reflect issues with weakness seen in Abbas and the PA. Netanyahu has already announced the Israeli govt is looking into stronger actions against these terrorists in the west bank and more specifically, those operating in east Jerusalem. Things could get explosive as any military move into the West Bank will likely trigger another rocket war from Gaza towards Israel.
Iran –
Actual facts surrounding the weekend attacks in Iran are still muddled in the smoke and haze of propaganda on both sides. What has been clarified so far –
1. Israel appears to have been behind an overnight drone attack on a military factory in the Iranian city of Isfahan, a US official tells Reuters
2. At least four, large multirotor drones hit the facility.
Still under question – the extent of damages at Isfahan and the causes of the multiple other explosions/fires in other areas of Iran that occurred at nearly the same time.
Iran is downplaying any damage, saying the drones didn’t penetrate the metal ‘fence’ (like a chain-link fence) that covered the facility hit, placed there for protection from drones (similar defense if being employed by Ukraine against Russian lancet suicide drones). Iran showed a photo of the alledged target, with some evidence of scorch marks identifying the impact site – as well as drone fragments. Their defense ministry said the explosion caused only minor damage and no casualties. The extent of the damage could not be independently confirmed.
Despite Iranian claims, the Israeli drone attack on Iran at Isfahan was a tremendous success, according to a mix of Western intelligence sources and foreign sources, The Jerusalem Post initially reported on Sunday morning.
So far, commercial satellite imagery of the facility supports Iran’s claims.
The short range of the drones indicates that they would have had to been launched within Iran and it is believed the Mossad is the element responsible.
OBSERVATION – With a couple more days worth of analysis, my thoughts that it was Azerbaijan were quickly dashed. What shocked me was just how QUICKLY the US intelligence “sources” toss Israel under the bus as the source of the attacks.
My second surprise was that the Mossad apparently didn’t note the chain-link fence style protection over the facility. Not like them to make that kind of a mistake. Well, they learned something.
Still wondering about the other explosions/fires that hit about 8 – 10 cities all within the same time frame. Some may be legit related to the earthquake in one incidence and other reasons, but the timing is still highly coincidental. Perhaps Iranian fixation on the Isfahan attack is being used to misdirect analysis/evaluation of these other sites.
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On top of the drone strikes and hit on IRGC / militias at the Syrian border, protests got violent over the weekend in one location. Iranian revolutionaries also got involved in a protest in Javanrod and intense shooting battle broke out. It is reported that police stations and IRGC bases were attacked.
Iraq -
See Israeli airstrike at the Syrian/Iraqi border below.
Syria -
Unidentified (probable Israeli) aircraft targeted Iranian militia sites near Al-Bukamal on the Syrian-Iraqi border. it appears the airstrikes targeted HQs belonging to the Iranian militias. Other reports indicate that the airstrikes also hit a gathering of Iranian militia trucks. The convoy was reportedly en-route to Al-Bukamal and was likely carrying weapons resupplies.
There are rumors that a high ranking Iranian IRGC commander and two of his guards were killed by the air strike.
OBSERVATION – Almost standard fare, if it wasn’t for the events of the drone strikes in Iran this weekend.
OTOH, if I were Iran, I’d be pretty concerned about this stike. Israel probably used its F-35s for their stealth capability and they flew across Syria without any detection. Iran doesn’t have any better radar capabilities, so this strike shows Israel can penetrate hostile airspace to do what it wants.