Ah, tee shirt and shorts weather - +3 degrees
Wuhan virus –
Pfizer’s bivalent shot for Covid has shown a potential link to stroke in people 65 and older. Bloomberg
**
On Monday, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the pandemic is not yet over.
“As you know, on Friday, the emergency committee met to consider whether that remains the case. The committee has advised me that, in its view, COVID-19 remains a global health emergency. And I agree,” Tedros said during the 152nd WHO Executive Board meeting.
IN RELATED - Biden is expected to end the Covid-19 Emergency Declarations on May 11th.
OBSERVATION – The globalists recognize that the ‘emergency’ powers they got from the plandemic are being eroded in many countries and these globalist overlords don’t want to have to reinvent the wheel for the next crisis.
Economy –
Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarty (R-CA) are scheduled to meet Wednesday to discuss raising the debt ceiling. Biden said he would not negotiate spending cuts with McCarthy, claiming that House Republicans want to raise prices on everyday Americans.
OBSERVATION – Here comes the train wreck – playing chicken with the American economy.
**
The national average price of retail gasoline rose for the fifth straight week Sunday, according to data compiled by GasBuddy, with higher oil prices and lower refinery utilization being driving factors. The national average is up to $3.49 per gallon, a 33.3-cent rise from a month ago.
OBSERVATION – Not good news as this will be further reflected in continued high inflation.
**
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce its eighth consecutive rate hike at this week’s policy meeting. This time it is believed that, Fed officials likely will approve a 0.25 percentage point increase as inflation starts to ease, a more modest pace compared with earlier super-size moves in 2022.
OBSERVATION – will this slowdown prevent the recession that so many other economists and businesses are expecting? We’ll have to see what their cooked numbers come out to.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Biden’s Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is considering declaring a public health emergency to promote abortion access, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra told Axios Monday.
The HHS believes it has the authority to declare a public emergency, but it is only one of many options on the table, according to Becerra, who argued there was an ongoing “reproductive health crisis” since Roe v. Wade was overturned. The agency has not completed a full assessment on a declaration, its conditions and whether it’s merited, he told Axios.
“There are discussions on a wide range of measures … that we can take to try to protect people’s rights,” he said. “There are certain criteria that you look for to be able to declare a public health emergency. That’s typically done by scientists and those that are professionals in those fields who will tell us whether we are in a state of emergency and based on that, I have the ability to make a declaration.”
OBSERVATION – This is another example of the lawlessness of the biden regime, and a slap to the face of the USSC. Such a declaration will generate violence, rest assured and pro-life states will be forced to stand up against the fed grab for power.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
T he U.S. military is poised to secure expanded access to key bases in the Philippines on the heels of a significant revamp of U.S. force posture in Japan — developments that reflect the allies’ concern with an increasingly fraught security environment in the region and a desire to deepen alliances with the United States, according to U.S. and Philippine officials.
While negotiations are still ongoing, an announcement is expected as soon as this week when Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets in Manila with his counterpart, Carlito Galvez, acting secretary of National Defense, and then with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
The expansion involves access to Philippine military bases, likely including two on the northern island of Luzon — which, analysts said, could give U.S. forces a strategic position from which to mount operations in the event of a conflict in Taiwan or the South China Sea. They will also facilitate cooperation on a range of security concerns, including more rapid responses to natural disasters and climate-related events.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/01/us-military-poised-to-secure-new-access-to-key-philippine-bases/
OBSERVATION – Pieces continue to be moved into position for the inevitable confrontation with China.
China –
Speaker McCarthy is planning a trip to Taiwan this spring and the Chinese government is not happy about that. China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning is delivering a message to McCarthy – don’t come.
“We urge certain individuals in the U.S. to earnestly abide by the one-China principle,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said in a Monday briefing, adding that the U.S. should “stop doing anything that violates the basic norms in international relations.”
OBSERVATION – A visit will likely trigger the same kind of numerous ‘exercises’ around Taiwan that followed pelosi’s visit. This will raise tensions between the US and China. However, China knows full well that any overt attempt to prevent the visit could cause things to go out of their control.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Putin ordered to search vehicles for weapons and explosives in regions with “yellow threat”. These areas are along the border opposite of Kharkiv.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing with an increase in snow. For the soils to properly freeze up, subfreezing temperature need to be sustained for a longer period.
RUMINT –
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant changes on the ground. Russia appears to be gaining the advantage around Bahkmut following the addition of Russian Airborne and regular units to the fight. Also appears to be an increase in Russian artillery strikes in the east as well.
Ukraine is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 450 tanks since Russia began its invasion of the country on February 24. To compensate for these losses, Ukraine has received 450 MBTs from NATO and is set to receive at least 100 more. Ukraine has also captured 546 MBTs.
NOTE – Russia continues to be the leading tank supplier to Ukraine.
OUTLOOK ——
Discussions now focusing on a Spring offensive by both. Monitoring to see who gets there with the mostest first.
IMHO, Russia has a lot of hurdles to overcome in order to get a reasonable offensive together. It lost most (nearly all”?) of its higher quality forces and equipment over the course of the war.
1. Mobilized conscripts with just a few months training along with a skeleton officer corps makes coordination of such an offensive even more difficult than the failed initial invasion.
2. Equipment - Russia is scraping the bottom of the bucket for tanks, armor and truck. Recent reports I’ve seen indicate that they are stealing from tanks purchased by other countries and sending them to the front. As noted above - Ukraine is in the net plus column on tanks alone from Russia.
3. Skilled operators are lacking for these tanks that Russia has been able to scrap together - a spinoff of #1 above.
4. Ukraine still has home field advantage
5. Wagner and Chechen forces are becoming increasing ineffective and political infighting with the MoD is shortening them for supplies. Word has gotten out regarding Wagner tactics of human wave attacks, reducing the pool of potential ‘recruits’ who don’t want to go into their meat grinder.
6. Logistics in general. Ukraine has this figured out, while Russia has been forced to more widely disperse its supply depots - increasing the transportation burden
7. Worn out artillery - though Russia still has an advantage in total tubes, combat is quickly wearing them out.
8. Russia continues to fail to establish air superiority.
9. The amphibious assault threat is still neutered as remaining ships are stuck shuttling supplies formerly carried over the Kerch Bridge.
Inspire of the obstacles, any russian spring offensive will be ugly.
NATO sees Russia preparing for a new offensive, with the aim of capturing all of Ukraine - Stoltenberg
“We see that the Russians are preparing for a new offensive, that they are mobilizing more soldiers, more than 200,000 people, and possibly even more.
Middle East / N. Africa General -
Yemen: Reports of a US drone strike earlier today in a Wadi in Marib targeting several senior Al-Qaeda. Reports a vehicle was targeted with an R9X missile killing three.
OBSERVATION – The R9X is the ‘ninja’ missile that slices, dices and makes julian fries out of its target.
Israel –
In a statement condemning the suspected Israeli drone attack in Iran, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
“We strongly condemn any provocative actions potentially capable of provoking an uncontrolled escalation of tension in an already far from calm region. Such destructive actions may have unpredictable consequences for peace and stability in the Middle East,”
OBSERVATION – Could well be considered a veiled threat towards Israel.
**
Israeli defense force has raised its readiness level in anticipation of an Iranian response to the Isfahan attack. Forces are looking at the possibility of missile or drone strikes launched from Yemen or Syria.
OBSERVATION – A drone strike from Syria may face resistance from Assad who doesn’t want his military in the Israeli crosshairs. Yemen, striking via southern Israel is more plausible. However, Iran has to be very careful not to poke the bear.
Iran –
Azerbaijani media report that the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan conducted a special operation in the editorial office of SalamNews and Interaz TV channel. 6 people detained, they are accused of propagating Iranian policy
Syria -
Syrian Iraq. Reports IRGC backed militias are on high alert for further airstrikes and have evacuated a number of command buildings and moved assets from a number of compounds in the border regions.
OBSERVATIION – I think they realize Israel is in target acquisition mode and unafraid to execute on solid intelligence. The best defense being a good offense.
Central / South America General-
Peruvian President Dina Boluarte announced on Sunday that she would soon present two proposals: to hold presidential elections this year, rather than in 2026 as planned, and “total” constitutional reform.
Boluarte vowed to make the changes if the nation’s Congress failed to pass the measures. The latter, a core demand of far-left rioters whose violence has resulted in 58 deaths and counting, would essentially result in a complete overhaul of Peru’s constitution. Leftists have been rioting in the country for nearly two months, erecting roadblocks to cut food supplies and burning down historic buildings, following the impeachment and arrest of unpopular communist former President Pedro Castillo.
OBSERVATION - Peru could be facing serious consequences if they support an overhaul of its constitution. Leftist violence will soon shift to voter suppression in order to get its way.
We must yield to our ChiCom overlords ,
until we all become BORG (StarTrek, SciFi reference)
The WHO (World Health Organization) is wedded to the WEF (World Economic Forum) and ChiComs system of "The Great RESET"
with a never-ending series of crises to overcome national sovereignty and human dignity and human rights.
Sorry, had to take a down day yesterday because, well I was feeling pretty down and wore out. My posting here is just my sharing my own global monitoring of events that can eventually effect my family. The onslaught of what honestly has to be demonically inspired chaos can be pretty hard to track after these years.
So today’s post is a little longer than normal.
Globalism / Great Reset –
EU Commission President says the “fight against climate change is a must” before announcing the “Green Deal Industrial Plan” for the European Union.
**
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commissioner Mark T. Uyeda says that establishing formal standards for rating companies’ adherence to liberal environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals and ideology could have Orwellian consequences.
In a speech last Thursday, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) commissioner shared his personal opinions regarding the Labor Department’s new rule on ESG investing by retirement account managers under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA).
“The emerging system has more in common with a George Orwell novel than what anyone would consider an accepted financial analysis tool,” Uyeda concluded.
OBSERVATION - ESG is a component that is designed to crash our present economic system.
Wuhan virus –
People are wondering what is so special about May 11 for biden to choose that day to lift the ‘emergency’.
Economy –
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate for an eighth straight time by a quarter percentage point and gave little indication it is nearing the end of this hiking cycle.
The post-meeting statement noted that inflation “has eased somewhat but remains elevated,” a tweak on previous language.
“Inflation data received over the past three months show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting news conference. “And while recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path.”
Markets, however, were looking to this week’s meeting for signs that the Fed would be ending the rate increases soon. But the statement provided no such signals.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/fed-rate-decision-february-2023-quarter-point-hike.html
OBSERVATION – Very sparse on the current impacts to the economy that the rate increases have inflicted. As noted elsewhere today, food price pressures still indicate more inflation, higher rates are beginning to devastate the housing and bank lending markets, and global instabilities are continuing to inflame petroleum prices.
**
S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2022 show that home prices declined across the United States.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 9.2% annual gain in November, down from 10.7% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 8.0%, down from 9.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 8.6% year-over-year gain, down from 10.4% in the previous month.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.6% month-over-month decrease in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.7% and -0.8%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.5%. In November, all 20 cities reported declines before seasonal adjustments. After seasonal adjustments, 19 cities reported declines, with only Detroit increasing 0.1%.
ANALYSIS
“November 2022 marked the fifth consecutive month of declining home prices in the U.S.,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index fell -0.6% for the month, reflecting a -3.6% decline since the market peaked in June 2022. We saw comparable patterns in our 10- and 20-City Composites, both of which stand more than -5.0% below their June peaks. These declines, of course, came after very strong price increases in late 2021 and the first half of 2022. Despite its recent weakness, on a year-over-year basis the National Composite gained 7.7%, which is in the 74th percentile of historical performance levels.”
OBSERVATION – Bottom line is the prices combined with the interest rates of mortgages still have housing priced outside of most people’s capabilities to buy.
**
The U.S. cattle population dropped to just over 28 million head, the lowest level since 1962. According to one ag economist, “Even though feeder cattle prices are quite high, it’s the uncertainty around feed supply and drought conditions. It’s hard to make the investment, if you’re not sure how weather is going to play out or if you’re going to have the grass available to support those heifers.”
RELATED
High fertilizer prices and drought in 2022 handed hay production in the United States its biggest decline in 11 years with stocks at their lowest level since data collection began, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
The stats were part of the Jan. 12 Crop Production Summary from NASS, which is part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The report includes information about all U.S. crops, their production, acreage, and yield. NASS places hay in two categories, alfalfa and “other hay,” the latter being relevant to the Southeastern U.S.
According to the summary, May 1 hay stocks were tight, totaling 16.77 million tons or 7 percent lower year over year.
“May 1 stocks, combined with lower 2022 hay production, put hay supplies at the lowest level on record since the data began in 1974,” said James Mitchell, extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “The previous record low in hay supplies was in 2021.”
OBSERVATION – BLUF- continued high beef prices for the foreseeable future. It will take several years for herds to return to pre-drought levels. A wetter winter so far makes the outlook for hay this year far better but it too will take a couple years to make up the losses.
Biden / Harris watch –
CBS News reports that the FBI conducted its own search of the Penn Biden Center in mid-November after Biden’s attorneys found the data stored illegally there. Their sources claim that Biden and his team cooperated and that a search warrant didn’t get issued, but that late revelation once again raises the question of what else the White House hasn’t disclosed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-documents-fbi-search-penn-biden-center/
OBSERVATION - This appears to be more maneuvering in the news sphere preparing the final push to have biden step back from a 2024 run. Remember, the past two years the MSM has carried the water for him, now appears to be turning on him.
**
Biden classified document timeline -
92 days ago: Docs found at Penn Biden Center
44 days ago: Docs found in Biden’s garage
21 days ago: Docs found in Biden’s home
Yesterday DoJ finally searched Joe Biden’s beach house
**
Harris gushed with joy over her love for school busses Monday.
“These are gonna remain yellow school buses, because who doesn’t love a yellow school bus? They will remain yellow but their heart will be green!”
OBSERVATION - This is the nightmare that awaits democrats if for any reason biden cannot finish his term in office.
Speaking of which - Via New York Post:
“Some Democrats are questioning whether Vice President Kamala Harris has the political chops to carry the party’s mantle after President Biden, citing her low profile in the administration, her well-publicized stumbles with the media, and the rough-and-tumble political environment, according to a report.
“Every fiber in my body wants her to be president; everything I’ve ever fought for is for someone like her to be president,” a South Carolina Democratic strategist told the Washington Post.”
Yep, the knives are out for Harris as well.
**
At a Democrat fundraiser in New York on Tuesday, Biden described a threat worse than nuclear war — and that is climate change.
“We’re finding ourselves in a situation where you talk about this party (Republicans) denying the existence of climate change, that (it’s) not true,” Biden said.
OBSERVATION – Climate change has been ongoing throughout the history of earth. Only more govt can prevent it /sarc.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Much of the anger over the death of Tyre Nichols has faded and few protests continue. This is due largely to the fact that it was Black officers involved and not whites.
However, observers of the violent leftists indicate that the Nichols riots ignited a desire and planning to go further in their anti-police efforts in the future – and are looking for a suitable catalyst event.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Once upon a time the contents of Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop were deemed akin to Russian “disinformation” by former law enforcement and national security authorities, candidate Joe Biden, and the media regurgitating the party line on Biden’s behalf. Anyone with an ounce of sense could see the party line a fairy tale, to put it kindly.
Now lawyers representing Hunter Biden seek criminal investigations of those involved in the dissemination of the materials for “making public restricted private information; accessing and disseminating stolen property; and making false statements to Congress[,]” as the Washington Post puts it in its story on the new Biden campaign. One of the letters quoted by the Post acknowledges the contents of the laptop as Hunter Biden’s. “This failed dirty political trick directly resulted in the exposure, exploitation, and manipulation of Mr. Biden’s private and personal information,” the letter says.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/02/battle-of-the-bulge-biden-style.php
OBSERVATION – Basically they are admitting that 1) the laptop is real and not a “Russian” fabrication, 2) the content found on the laptop is real and not a fabrication. Can’t really see that this will end well for the bidens
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Marine Corps recruiters are sending out texts to former members who left active or reserve duty over the COVID-19 vaccine mandate asking if they would like to rejoin now that the secretary of defense has overturned the mandate, screenshots of the texts obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation show. “No direct authorization was given for these messages,” Jim Edwards, deputy director of communications at Marine Corps Recruiting Command, told the DCNF. “It was individual Marines taking initiative to share information that former Marines may not have been aware of.”
OBSERVATION – As an Army veteran, I cannot see any serviceman/woman in ANY branch accepting such an offer. The govt has proven itself not to value the military and has used the men and women serving as pawns in a political and medical tyrannical scheme to reduce the morale and combat effectiveness of the military. The leadership at nearly ALL levels deliberately screwed the people – those who sought exemptions to those who got the jab (wonder what the ‘suddenly’ stats are for the military run?).
China –
China’s military conducted mock missile strikes on Taiwan and practiced antisubmarine warfare in the Taiwan straits on Wednesday. Taiwan’s defense ministry said 34 Chinese aircraft and nine warships participated in the drills, of which 20 Chinese warplanes crossed the median line in the straits. Taiwan responded by scrambling fighter jets, activating its missile batteries, and placing its navy on alert.
OBSERVATION – China intrudes into Taiwan’s ADZ on a daily basis – so the fact that I don’t report on a daily basis is not evidence of absence of Chinese actions. This latest round was interpreted as a mock strike operation based on the mix of aircraft and coordination with surface vessels. These actions are going to get more frequent and likely larger the closer China gets to launching any kind of action against Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. would increase deployments of advanced weapons to the Korean peninsula in response to the growing nuclear threat from North Korea. Secretary Austin and South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup agreed to expand combined military exercises, including the resumption of live-fire exercises.
RELATED
North Korea has stated that they will Forcefully Respond to any further moves by the U.S or Allies in the Region, they further started that the Response could include a “Overwhelming Nuclear Retaliation”. North Korea says the situation has reached an extreme red-line due to the reckless military moves by US and it’s allies – KCNA
MORE RELATED - US Air Force B-1B Lancers and F-22 Raptors conduct air drills with South Korean F-35A Lightning IIs over Yellow Sea on Feb. 1.
OBSERVATION – NK defining additional SK-US military exercises as the ‘red line’. This latest actions by the US to deploy more advanced weapons to SK would apparently fall close to NK red lines as well. The question is does NK currently have the will to commit to such an act?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The State Department said Russia is violating the New START Treaty by refusing to allow on-site inspections of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. A State Department official said there is a clear path to re-compliance with the treaty, but Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said it was difficult to address U.S. concerns due to the extremely hostile line taken towards Russia.
RUMINT-
Some are saying that Russia has amassed 300,000-500,000 troops in the Ukraine area of operations set to kick off an offensive on Feb 24th -the anniversary of the start of the ‘special operation’ . Much speculation as to strategic objectives beyond the capture of the Donbas. Some say a renewed push in northeast Ukraine in the Sumy Oblast towards Kyiv. Others say northward into Zaporizhzhia Oblast from the south.
These numbers appear to be related to claims of a ‘stealth’ conscript mobilization beyond the one putin called for last year. That mobilization was fraught with confusion and equipping issues. It is hard to see an additional mobilization (again as big as the known one) with out similar issues.
I suspect that Russia’s numbers are inflated by Ukrainian intel as a propaganda move to get western arms and munitions in country sooner, rather than later. This would represent an army at least twice the size of the forces that invaded nearly a year ago. There is no way the armor/tanks for such a beast could be hidden as well.
Logistics –
Russia reported that they had 2,600 tanks available at the time of February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. There was visible evidence that nearly 1,600 were lost during the first few months of the invasion. While 924 were destroyed, another 664 were damaged and abandoned. Most of these tanks were undamaged and captured intact after their crews abandoned them. On both sides, many of these tanks eventually became unusable because they did not have replacement parts for them.
Because of the heavy losses, Russia began to use its tanks in more a direct fire artillery manner. Firing HE is less accurate the farther away the target is. That means a 125mm HE shell fired at a maximum range will land up to sixty meters from where it was aimed. The 125mm accuracy problem was confirmed in 2018. That was when the Russian army conducted tests to measure the effectiveness of HE shells fired from the smooth bore 125mm guns tanks are equipped with. The test results recommend against tanks using HE shells. The ones on hand were not discarded but no new ones were manufactured.
Russian tanks in Ukraine appear to have used about 100,000 of these shells and in doing so discovered another problem. These shells caused barrel wear on the 125mm tank gun liners. These liners are common in tank guns and tube artillery. It’s cheaper to replace a worn-out liner than to replace the entire barrel and attached loading mechanism. Tube artillery barrel liners are good for 5,000 to 6,000 shells fired.
On Russian tanks Russian tanks can have their liners replaced but it happens so infrequently that the process is not simple. It involves removing the turret from the tank to replace the liner. This can only be done in one special facility and that means putting the entire tank on a train flat car and shipping it to the facility and then shipping it back. This meant that most of the Russian tanks with worn barrel liners were useless except as machine gun-armed vehicles. the liner wears out after about a thousand shells are fired.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20230202.aspx
NOTE- This has become a critical issue for Russian tube artillery because the quality of the steel is so poor that they are wearing out at a faster rate than would normally be expected. In addition to poor accuracy, catastrophic failures of the gun increase.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing with an increase in snow. Long term temperature forecasts suggest that the ground may be starting to achieve temperatures to maintain frozen state for longer periods.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia is throwing ‘fresh’ troops into the fight around Bahkmut and forcing Ukraine to grudgingly give up terrain. Most recent Russian assaults are on a line northward from Bahkmut towards Svatove with the center of mass in the Kreminna area.
Some OSINT and other analysts are reporting that there are indicators of a large Russian offensive set to kickoff in the Kreminna region. Artillery cover and air activity increased with Russian SOF and the 76th Air Assault units on the move. This however has long been in the pipeline and is likely a localized offensive. I’ve noted that this area has seen a gradual build up of Russian forces since putin initiated the latest mobilization. The Kreminna – Svatove line is critical for Russia because key logistics lines pass thru it towards the northern flank of their attempted Donbas campaign.
“Ukrainian intel estimates Russia now has more than 320,000 soldiers in the country — roughly twice the size of Moscow’s initial invasion force. Western officials and military analysts have said that Moscow also has 150,000 to 250,000 soldiers in reserve”
OUTLOOK ——
Trying to digest the many cups with tea leaves out there. I find it hard to accept that Russia has pulled that many soldiers into active duty and stealthily placed them into position. I can’t believe that they managed to equip them with the thousands of tanks and armored vehicles given the shortages the forces have been facing over the past few months – and adequately trained them to use them.
I do see and agree with some OSINT analysts that the Russian tactics of the past few month of trying to overwhelm Ukrainian positions through human wave attacks that bear similarity to Russian tactics from WW2 may well be in their plans for their upcoming offensive. They have very little time remaining to train their forces to be capable of combined arms warfare, thus forcing them to resort to brute force.
Timing and focus of the offensive will be critical as well. I still think it is not probable that they will make another run towards Kyiv either via Suma Oblast or Belarus. The focus will likely be the front from Svatove southward to Donetsk, with the biggest pushes in the Kreminna, Bahkmut and Donetsk regions. There may be a supporting attack out of the south, but one has to remember that Russia is paranoid about losing Crimea.
How soon will Russia try to kick it off? Some say end of the month – in collusion with the 1 year anniversary of the war. Others note that putin has put a March 31st deadline on the capture of the Donbas. If Russia waits too far into the spring, they will seemingly run into the same problems they had during the initial invasion – contrary soil conditions for cross country maneuver. With Ukraine’s much improved capability to strike logistics lines and Russia’s reluctance to lead with armored units, foot soldiers become the only alternative.
So if Russia has been able to mass that many soldiers and sustain them (again a continuing problem) even lacking armor, they would be a significant threat but one that at this stage may not be capable of securing the Donbas before any preemptive Ukraianian offensive or counter offensive.
On the Ukrainian side of the ledger, they need longer range weapon systems and a heck of a lot more artillery systems and ammo. Even with all the Russian losses, Russia still has an advantage in tubes and can mass fire in specific locations. By many counts, Ukraine has more tanks now than what they began the war with, important because it is many months before western tanks can reach combat in numbers with trained crews to effect the battle. Ukraine will face similar terrain issues as Russia, but they are playing on their home field and likely have better knowledge of the terrain than Russian forces.
Indicators will be everything – much like it was last year and the next few weeks will be critical to solidly identify these indicators from behind the smokescreen of propaganda and misdirection by both sides.
Belarus -
Russian activity continues to be that of training in central and western Belarus with no indicators of any kind of build up on the Ukrainian border as there was last year before the start of the war.
Czechia president-elect General_Pavel: Ukraine “morally and practically” ready to join NATO once war is over. Sending planes to Ukraine is “not taboo”, but prob not helpful in time it would take to do it. Putin “could end war today”. But “no sign” Russia wants peace.
Also - Czechia has reduced its Russia gas imports from 97 % to just 4 % in 2022
**
Austria is expelling four Russian diplomats for behaving in a “manner inconsistent with international agreements”
**
Austria and Hungary have agreed not to send weapons to Ukraine, Austrian Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner and her Hungarian counterpart Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky said on Jan. 30, cited by Euractiv.
Israel –
Russia has warned Israel against supplying weapons to Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – This warning comes along with other warnings on Israeli actions in Syria against Russia’s new BFF Iran. Russia and Israel have had a kind of under the table agreement to make sure Russian elements are not targeted in Israeli airstrikes and that included Russia forcefully if necessary keeping Iranian/Hezbollah assets and facilities far enough away from Russian positions so they would not inadvertently get hit. That agreement appears to be increasingly coming unraveled.
**
In response to the rocket launch from Gaza into Israel earlier today, IDF fighter jets struck a production site for raw chemical material production, along with a weapon manufacturing site belonging to the Hamas Terrorist Organization.
OBSERVATION - The IDF holds Hamas responsible for all terrorism activity emanating from Gaza because they are the defacto rulers of the territory.
Lebanon -
Country is facing a 90% depreciation of its currency in the coming days. This will only further the economic woes and civil unrest.
Saudi Arabia –
Syria -
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Turkey -
Turkey’s President Erdogan threatened to make the US pay a price for what he claimed unfulfilled promises on fighter jets, vowed to make an alliance with Russia, Iran, and Syria to bring peace in the region.
OBSERVATION – NATO’s bad boy, Turkey may well be pushing to have itself sidelined by NATO. Only reliable as a partner nation when it sees fit. And for Bible prophecy watchers, Turkey’s alliance with “Russia, Iran, and Syria to bring peace in the region” has strong connections to Ezekiel 38.
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Turkey: The UK and a number of other European Embassies are reportedly suspending consulate activities due to intelligence of terrorist attacks. Precautions and vigilance required.
OBSERVATION – No specific culprit identified, but highly likely Iran given how it has been hit on several sides recently.
Black Swans
Been monitoring reports that chicken feed may have been contaminated in a way that has stopped chickens from laying eggs. A lot of subjective views, but short of actual chemical analysis of the feed to confirm this. With everything that is going on today, such an attack is no longer unthinkable, but needs real investigation and not just repeating of rumors.
A related – the burning down of a major egg producing center has raised the idea of a deliberate assault on our food supply. One must note that this is about the 96th event in the past couple years projected upon tens of thousands of food supply/processing facilities across the nation.