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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


Globalism / Great Reset –

Bill Gates issued a warning during his visit to Australia about the impending threat of another pandemic, one that could be much more devastating than Covid and could be man-made, Daily Mail reported.
On Monday, Microsoft founder Bill Gates discussed global health, pandemic preparedness, food security, and ‘climate change’ in an in-depth interview with Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr. Michael Fullilove.
Gates urged that world leaders must put aside their differences and work together to prepare for the next epidemic.

OBSERVATION - Telegraphing the next global disaster. Note from Davos of a lot of emphasis of a global response (read more medical tyranny) to pandemics.

**
A man from Southampton, U.K., has been fined for praying near an abortion facility in Bournemouth.
Adam Smith-Connor, a British army veteran, stood still and silent on Ophir Road, a public street, for a few minutes before being approached by “community safety accredited officers,” according to an article at adf.uk, the U.K. office of Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), which is supporting the physiotherapist.
Smith-Connor had been praying outside a British Pregnancy Advisory Service (BPAS) clinic with his back to the facility in order to be mindful of the privacy of staff and attendees of the abortion center, according to ADF.

He recorded his conversation with the officers and shared footage with ADF UK. After repeatedly being asked what the nature of his prayer was, Smith-Connor told authorities he was praying for his son who died by abortion 22 years ago, a decision that still haunts him to this day.

The officers warned him he was in an area under a Public Spaces Protection Order (PSPO), which establishes a “safe zone” around abortion clinics and prohibits “engaging in any act of approval/disapproval,” including praying. The abortion clinic in Bournemouth is the fifth one in the country to have this type of censorship zone, according to local news reports.

OBSERVATION – Global thought crimes/censorship is growing in the UK as well as other parts of the globe. Silent protests are a threat as the mind is one place they cannot control outright. This is a sinister trend, following the widespread calls in the recent Davos meeting for greater censorship of “misinformation” and the like. One can read in similar goals for here in the US from the statements by many leftist mouthpieces.

**
German Environment Minister Steffi Lemke will send proposals to the cabinet to remove Germany from crop-based biofuel production.

OBSERVATION – Biofuels once were described as the way to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. It wasn’t rocket science to realize that the amount of energy needed to produce it exceeds its benefits. It is only sustainable here in the US with a lot of govt assistance and $$$.

**
Kinda old new now, but on Tuesday morning, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists — a nonprofit media organization — announced just how close it considers the world to be to “Doomsday” from man-made catastrophes such as nuclear war, “climate change,” or a deadly pandemic. For the past 75 years, the Bulletin has used a depiction of an analog clock to indicate how much time remains until midnight — the theoretical Doomsday.

OBSERVATION – Just 90 seconds. Well that fits well in the WEF / globalists cry for a unified global govt. Create a crisis and then present the “solution”.


Economy –

Rising U.S. consumer demand, combined with a rise in the price of crude oil, has led to an increase in gas prices at the pump.
The national average price for a regular gallon of gas was at $3.46 on Jan. 24, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).
The auto association attributed much of the increase in prices to good weather and strong consumer demand in an economy still struggling with high inflation.

IN RELATED - According to industry officials, twice the usual number of US oil refineries will temporarily close this spring due to maintenance and upgrades. U.S. refineries will drop total processing capacity by 1.4 million barrels per day by February. Planned projects will last from two to 11 weeks.

OBSERVATION - Market experts continue to forecast national average prices to go above $4/gal this summer. And that doesn’t include any impacts due to global crisis or China getting over its wuhan blues and getting production cranked back up. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, prices have jumped 20 cents/gal in just the last two weeks.


Invasion of Illegals –

Two left-wing nonprofits have combined to rake in hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer-backed government contracts since President Biden took office, with a vast majority of the money going towards efforts to keep illegal immigrants in the United States, records reviewed by Fox News Digital shows.
The Vera Institute of Justice, a New York-based group that views immigration enforcement agencies as a “threat” to civil liberties, has been the primary breadwinner in the past two years, collecting around $350 million from government contracts for immigration services. The Acacia Center for Justice, a newer nonprofit linked to the Vera Institute and another left-wing immigration group, has also pocketed tens of millions of dollars in recent federal contracts.
The progressive groups have landed the contracts amid the escalating border crisis, which recently saw a quarter of a million migrant encounters at the southern border in December, a new high for the Biden-era as the crisis enters its third year.

OBSERVATION - The deliberate actions by the regime to subvert the country no longer surprise me. This is just the latest in a long line of gravy train funding for ‘progressive’ organizations. I’ll bet that these organizations have potentially laundered some of these funds back into the democrat party.


Biden / Harris watch –

Jeff Zients, incoming White House chief of staff for President Joe Biden, reportedly met with the president’s son multiple times in 2016.
A report from Fox News Digital claims that Zients met with Hunter Biden and then-Vice President Joe Biden twice in February 2016 at the U.S. Naval Observatory and once in May 2016, according to emails obtained by the outlet from Hunter Biden’s infamous laptop.

OBSERVATION – Birds of a feather, so they say.


CW2/Domestic violence –

See coments on Peru below in Central / S America.

**
The Department of Justice has indicted two Florida residents on charges of a civil rights conspiracy for spray-painting threats on reproductive health services and for violating the FACE Act. If convicted, the two could face up to 12 years in prison, three years of supervised release, and up to $350,000 in fines.

“2 Members of #Miami #Antifa indicted by the feds for a string of Jane’s Revenge related vandalism targeting pro life pregnancy centers in 2022 Caleb Freestone and Amber Smith-Stewart are both charged with Civil Rights Conspiracy and violating the FACE act,” Antifa watch reported.

OBSERVATION – These charges are but a drop in the bucket compared to the dozens of charges facing pro-life protestors who clearly were non-violent in their protests. These are also the only ones arrested and charged (to my knowledge) for the dozens of the episodes of vandalism against pro-life facilities and churches since the overturning of Roe. The DoJ’s lack of response to those acts of violence has continued to confirm to many the two – tiered nature of the DoJ so called law enforcement.

**
A good observation on the response from the left on the recent attacks on Asians
“A sentiment on the far-left is that white supremacy is still to blame in Asian on Asian violence. In their pseudo-religious worldview, white supremacy is the root of all wickedness in past, present and future. “ - Andy Ngo


Cyber Warfare –

Korean media is reporting that Chinese hackers gained access to at least 12 and up to 70 South Korean government and educational institutions. The attack is not being blamed directly on the Chinese government but on a Chinese nationalist group.

OBSERVATION - Attacks by non-govt groups that can also serve as front groups for govt action will be increasingly used in the future for battlefield preparation of the cyber frontiers in future conflicts. In this case, you can be sure that the Chinese govt not only approved of the action, but could have provided technical support for the effort.


China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

We are now in that window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch. I will continue the watch through the end of the weekend, though it appears that action is not forthcoming.


North/South Korea –

North Korea has announced a five-day lockdown in the capital due to rising cases of an unspecified “respiratory illness,” according to Seoul-based NK News. This is the first city-wide lockdown since North Korea declared itself COVID-free in August last year.

According to a government notice cited by NK News, residents in Pyongyang have been told to stay indoors from Wednesday to Sunday. They are also required to submit to multiple temperature checks each day.
The government notice did not mention COVID-19 but said the symptoms of the “respiratory illness” include common cold, according to the Seoul-based website.

OBSERVATION – NK has kept its response to the wuhan plandemic very secret. Can’t say for sure then if this is wuhan, because overall health of NK civilians is iffy because of poor nutrition and preventative medical services. My also be a spill over from China’s current wuhan woes were upwards of 80% of the population may be infected by the current variant.


Japan –

Japan and India on Jan. 12 launched their first joint air combat drill in a move to bolster their military alliance amid the security challenges posed by the Chinese communist regime in the Indo-Pacific region.


Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

RUMINT-
There are reportedly signs Putin that is weighing making a “big move” in the next several weeks to regain the initiative in the war, officials familiar with the intelligence tells CNN.

Part of this “big move” is another troop mobilization of as many as 200,000 men, US and Western officials familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

OBSERVATION – It appears Russian is rushing to take some kind of action before the tanks supplied by NATO and the west arrive in Ukraine. Most still think it will be an offensive.


Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The slug fest continues in eastern Ukraine, with Ukraine making minor gains in the Savatoe -Kreminna line and Russia making minor gains around Bahkmut.

Ukrainian defense officials said their military forces conducted a tactical withdrawal ahead of advancing Russian forces near the eastern Ukraine towns of Soledar and Bakhmut. The Ukraine military units reportedly withdrew to prepare defensive positions in an effort to protect ground lines of communication from Bakhmut into central Ukraine.

Germany opened the door for NATO nations to start supplying Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as well as announcing they will be contributing as well. Some have wondered just how Ukraine will integrate the various modern NATO tanks- forgetting that Ukraine has already integrated hundreds of T-62,T-64, T-72, T-80 and T-90 (plus their numerous variants) over the past 11 months.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the resignation of five government officials and the removal of five regional governors amid corruption accusations.

OBSERVATION – Likely in response to western criticism of corruption in the Ukrainian govt.

OUTLOOK ——
No change in the slugfest in the east. Now continuing to monitor for another Russian missile barrage. However there is some RUMINT that the strategic attacks on the Ukrainian power grid and infrastructure didn’t obtain the desired results and Gerasimov has ended them in order to preserve the ever dwindling stockpile – a wise move if Russia is going to try to go back on a serious offensive.


Iran –

The Iranian flotilla, comprised of Dena and Makran warships, set sail from the south of Iran in early autumn with the purpose of circumnavigating the world, according to a Tasnim report.

The trip to Brazil appears to be part of a mission to the Panama Canal.
Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani said nearly two weeks ago that Iran is planning to extend its area of operation to the Panama Canal that divides South and North America.

“So far, we have been present in all the strategic straits of the world and we have not been present in only two straits, in one of which we will be present this year and we are planning to be present in the Panama Canal,” Irani said, according to Fars News.

The top military official also said Iran has established command centers for the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

OBSERVATION – Mostly PR for domestic consumption. Iran doesn’t have the capability to project force globally, but these moves do allow a glimpse of their thought on how they could asymmetrically project power in key areas. The Panama Canal is on such area where they could subtly threaten global shipping while at the same time secure trade deals selling Iranian made arms to leftist countries aligned against the US. This would allow them to grow their presence, protected by the host country.


Central / South America General-

Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Peru’s capital and were met with volleys of tear gas and pellets amid clashes with security forces just hours after President Dina Boluarte called for a “truce” in almost two months of protests.
The anti-government protest on Tuesday was the largest – and most violent – since last Thursday, when large groups of people, many from remote Andean regions, descended on the capital to demand Boluarte’s resignation, immediate elections and the dissolution of Congress.

Before last week, most of the large anti-government protests that followed the removal of President Pedro Castillo took place in remote regions of Peru, largely in the country’s south, exposing deep division between residents of the capital and the long-neglected countryside.

The crisis that has sparked Peru’s worst political violence in more than two decades began when Castillo, Peru’s first leader from a rural Andean background, tried to short-circuit the third impeachment proceeding of his young administration by ordering Congress dissolved on December 7.

OBSERVATION – Latin American communist support has traditionally been cultivated in the poorer, often rural areas of the region. There they gain sympatric support and have effectively built upon that support via actions towards ‘bettering’ their lives as well as portraying the urban areas and govt leadership as corrupt and uncaring. With that base extablished, the communists will turn their efforts on the urban areas, with a combination of political and military/terror attacks that eventally weaken it and opens a window for them to take control.

Here in America there is a parallel effort taking place. Antifa holds many ‘community support’ events for homeless and economically disadvantaged in their blue strongholds. These people then may become general foot soldiers for actions or provide the means for Antifa members to go to ground following actions. I look at this though as they have in some part put the cart before the horse - violence before establishing popular support. Time will tell if they can reverse course.

Meanwhile, I expect more violence in Peru and wouldn’t plan on visiting Machu Picu any time soon.


Misc of Note –

California State Assemblymember Lori Wilson (D) introduced Assembly Bill 228, which will require the California Department of Health (CDOH) to establish an infant formula stockpile for the state. Wilson said the CDOH already maintains a stockpile of key medications, and her bill simply expands the directive to include formula.

OBSERVATION – More a political move than a practical one. Yes, a stockpile of baby formula would be a good idea - if the state of kalifornia could prove it has the capability of managing such a stockpile in a cost effective manner. However, just about everything kalifornia sticks their noses into devolves into a dumpster fire.

Baby formula has a limited shelf life. For most products I don’t worry about the “best by” date (this is NOT an expiration date, but a date by which the taste and nutritional quality of the product is guaranteed by the company), but in the case of dairy related products and expecially baby formula (with components designed to break down quickly in the infant’s digestive tract) the expiration date is critical. There is no apparent plan for stockage rotation and what to do with the expiring formula. Most likely will just end up in a land fill being wasted.


62 posted on 01/25/2023 8:20:37 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla
Kinda old new now, but on Tuesday morning, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists — a nonprofit media organization — announced just how close it considers the world to be to “Doomsday” from man-made catastrophes such as nuclear war, “climate change,” or a deadly pandemic.

When I was young everyone knew the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists was a commie front group.

63 posted on 01/25/2023 8:43:09 AM PST by GOPJ ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muw22wTePqQ Gumballs: Immigrants by the numbers.)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Much of today will be spent pre-stockpiling split fire wood and checking stored water in anticipation of the incoming winter/arctic storm and freeze. Likely the last major cold blast of the season with the lowest temps forecast in the -26 to -28 range. But actual weather is pretty fickle here in the mountains, so we may see more or less snow. But the cold will hit.


Globalism / Great Reset –

See Pfizer spilling the beans below under Wuhan.


Wuhan virus –

Wow, did Project Veritas rattle the hornet’s nest overnight. Their latest release nails Pfizer for exploring “Mutating” COVID-19 virus for new vaccines. Jordon Trishton Walker, Pfizer Director of R&D for mRNA Scientific Planning admits they’re exploring “mutating viruses” in a lab to tailor a vaccine to sell to the public.

“Don’t tell anyone this...There is a risk...have to be very controlled to make sure this virus you mutate doesn’t create something...the way that the virus started in Wuhan, to be honest.”

Cover up begins - Daily Mail has removed its article about Project Veritas’ latest footage on Pfizer. Google search has it buried as well.

OBSERVATION – If one considers that the whole Pfizer/Moderna vaccine scam was designed and endorsed by the globalist to reduce the global population, this guy’s statement becomes even more credible and dangerous. We also must remember Pfizer has a history of getting hammered in the courts for their products. Its bad enough that govt labs with reportedly high degree of protections to keep these mutations contained, but a private company with probably just a fraction of the protective measures considering playing the same game. . . . .


Biden / Harris watch –

VP Harris has been eerily quiet about President Joe Biden’s classified document scandal, causing at least some Republicans to believe Harris could be angling to push Biden out of the way for a shot at the Oval Office.

OBSERVATION – It may well be more likely that she is lying low and searching out any classified she’s drug home over the past couple years, perhaps knowing full well that the powers that be may be trying to stop a biden reelection bid and toss him under the bus – and that she will be included with him.


CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Joy Reid became visibly giddy on air at the prospect of jailing rival journalists for White Supremacy hate speech. Reid interviewed Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) about a bill she introduced, HR 61, dubbed the “Leading Against White Supremacy Act of 2023.” According to the New York Post, HR 61 “aims ‘to prevent and prosecute white supremacy inspired hate crime and conspiracy to commit white supremacy inspired hate crime.’”

In effect, the bill would mean that “people who use hate speech online could face criminal charges under the legislation even if they don’t act on their threats.” This includes “material advancing white supremacy, white supremacist ideology, antagonism based on ‘replacement theory,’ or hate speech that vilifies or is otherwise directed against any non-white person or group.”

OBSERVATION – If there is one thing we should have learned about the Marxist/progressive left by now is that they think the world revolves around them and that they are endowed to define terms and conditions any way they choose to support their cause. They absolutely want to completely censor conservative views and will do what ever it takes to do so. Fortunately Lee’s bill is essentially DOA but you can bet it will do a zombie act if the dems retain the WH and control both houses again.

**
Meta just announced that they will be allowing President Trump to return to Facebook and Instagram after a 2-year bid in the gulag.

“As a general rule, we don’t want to get in the way of open, public and democratic debate on Meta’s platforms – especially in the context of elections in democratic societies like the United States,” Nick Clegg, Meta’s president of global affairs, wrote. “The public should be able to hear what their politicians are saying – the good, the bad and the ugly – so that they can make informed choices at the ballot box.”

OBSERVATION – For those of us who’ve been put in FB jail over the years over similar, “meta’s” statement rings pretty hollow in their endorsement of “open, public and democratic debate”.


POLITICAL FRONT –

A San Francisco judge has granted a motion to release dramatic police bodycam footage from the night former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, was attacked by an assailant with a hammer at their home.
The motion was granted on Wednesday, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, with Judge Stephen Murphy siding with a coalition of news organizations who sought access to evidence against David DePape, the man charged in the October attack.

The media argued back in December that the footage should be presented in court and accessible to the public since they had been submitted in open court and admitted into evidence.

OBSERVATION – This should be interesting. It should clear up a lot of the speculation surrounding the incident.
BTW – Pelosi claims to have had a priest execute an ‘exorcism’ of the property following the incident, the Catholic diocese denies the claim. I believe the diocese because Pelosi still can come to her home. . . . .

Speaking of Pelosi – the pelosi’s sold off 3 million in stocks in Google about a month prior to the DoJ filing a lawsuit against it. Insider trading anyone?

**
Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), and Ilhan Omar(D-Minn.) vowed to “stick together” on Jan. 25 in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) refusal to allow them assignments on House committees.

OBSERVATION – What goes around, comes around and I’m sure McCarthy is just quaking in his bunny slippers over their threats. As he strongly inferred to a very stupid reporter the other day in a classic slap down, he has the goods on them. In Omar’s bleat, she some how forgets she voted to do the EXACT SAME THING to republicans under the Pelosi regime.

**
Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel’s salary has more than doubled since she began her tenure six years ago, now far exceeding the pay of any of her predecessors.
She is facing calls to step down after losing the House of Representatives in 2018, both chambers of Congress and the White House in 2020, and far underperforming expectations by winning only a slim majority in the House while failing to regain the Senate in 2022.
McDaniel has touted her leadership in building party infrastructure, as 4 million more GOP voters than Democrats turned out nationwide during the 2022 midterms.

OBSERVATION – She is a major part of the problem at the RNC – there only on the basis of her uncle – Mitt. The RNC did very little to increase more GOP voters – that credit has to go to Trump. She is a liability to the RNC – but then that’s just what the eGOP elements want.


China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

We are now in the window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch. I will continue the watch through the end of the weekend, though it appears that action is not forthcoming.


North/South Korea –

More evidence of Russia and China ignoring sanctions on NK. In particular NK’s delivery of munitions to Russia (Wagner Group the current benefactors).


Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

The kremlin and Russian nationalist mouthpieces are angry over the recent announcements of the west supplying modern tanks to Ukraine. Some calling the actions an open declaration of war against Russia and calling military strikes against Germany in particular.

Logistics –
GUR published a short intercepted call indicating that Russians issues an order to strictly conserve their ammunition “at all positions”. Unfortunately, no additional context is provided. Reduced rate of Russian fire is a continuing topic of military analysis.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Two Germans have been captured in Bakhmut, where they were fighting for the Russian mercenary Wagner Group


Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Russian strategic bomber nets went hot overnight and Russia released its latest missile barrage after about a two week pause. Ukrainian air defense shot down 47 of 55 missiles launched by Russia this morning. Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-47, Kinzhal, Kaliber, Kh-59 cruise missiles, launched by Tu-95, Su-35, Mig-31K and naval vessels from Black Sea. Iranian Shaheds drones were also in the mix. A couple missile got through at Kyiv (explosions may possibly be debris as Kyiv authorities claim all 20 of the missiles that targeted the city were shot down), and the Zaporizhzhia region Odesa and Kherson were also targeted but were shot down.

NOTE – though operating through code words, Russian Air Force strategic aviation voice net operated on 4694 Kilohertz USB, 2016 UTC using structured messages that are well documented as being active commands for launch preparation and execution. Russian naval has similar nets and programmed scripts for their launches as well. This gives Ukraine warning of an impending attack and can make sure its ADA assets are wound up and ready.

Russia has attacked a transport ship in the Port of Kherson sailing under a Turkish flag but appears to be owned by another country. Video posted on social media shows the commander’s bridge on fire. No response from Turkey yet.

OUTLOOK ——
No change in the slugfest in the east. Russian force tactics may be changing to that of engaging in limited spoiling attacks across most of the frontline in Ukraine in order to disperse and distract Ukrainian forces and set conditions to launch a decisive offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast.

Analysts are sharpening their pencils and trying to analyze what Russia’s plans for their offensive may be. Some note that the array of conventional forces across the Luhansk Obl. frontline suggests that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort in this sector, likely offensive, supported by limited spoiling attacks elsewhere on the frontline to distract and disperse Ukrainian forces.

The according to some, the most probable course of a Russian offensive action in Luhansk Oblast would be premised on launching an attack along the Svatove-Kreminna line, supported by critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run into major logistics hubs in Luhansk City and Starobilsk in order to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative border and complete the capture of the remaining part of Luhansk Oblast that is still Ukrainian-controlled. I’ve noted reports of Russian build up in the Svatove-Kreminna, some of which were to bolster the defenses.

Russian forces may hope to recapture critical ground in northern Donetsk Oblast around Lyman and use the Svatove-Kreminna line to launch further attacks into western Kharkiv and/or northern Donetsk Oblasts.
This axis of attack is similar to what the Russians attempted in their Izium push last spring. That push came out of the north at that time from the Kharkiv sector following parallel N/S lines of drift and roads. That effort stalled out and all the territory was recaptured by Ukraine this past summer. Russia will be forced to deal with numerous river crossings (that they failed to use to their advantage during the Ukraine’s offensive that cleared out a lot of eastern Ukraine.

Logistics appear to be a critical issue for Russia, given the order to conserve ammo (See Russia above) as well as other, more strategic weapons, reflected in their ballistic/cruise missile and drone attacks. The overnight missile attacks were substantially smaller than previous ones and may reflect the increasing shortage of those munitions. The attack had very little effect on the Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian ADA continues to improve its defenses. When Russia launches its offensive, it will need all the missiles and drones it can get its hands on to hit deep targets in Ukrainian defenses and not waste them flailing against strengthening defenses. Same goes for ammunition, which Ukraine will continue to strike logistics points, forcing Russian to disperse even more and strain their transportation assets further.

As Russia continues its preparations for their effort to regain the momentum, its troop deployments will begin to tell a better story of their intents.

Right now Russia and Ukraine are racing to get their forces ready for action. The old adage of “He who gets there with the most-est the first-ist will be the winner” is in play.


Pakistan –

The recent large power outage that struck the nation this week has resulted in the revelation that the country is in serious economic trouble, with very little cash reserve to purchase fuel for power plants, let alone other essentials such as food. This will trigger even more political instability and embolden Taliban elements to increase their efforts to control more remote stronghold areas as well as to start expanding into adjacent one. A nuclear power and the threat of those bombs getting into the wrong hands could result in serious consequences. IMHO I think this gives Saudi Arabia a chance to purchase their own nuclear arsenal.


Israel –

Nine Palestinians were killed during heavy clashes between gunmen and Israeli troops in Jenin on Thursday morning, according to Israeli media reports. The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement that troops were engaged while attempting to detain Palestinian Islamic Jihad members planning a major terrorist attack.

OBSERVATION – These kinds of clashes between IDF and PIJ terrorists have developed into almost a daily occurrence. A significant part of this is the leadership crisis in the Palestinian authority that PIJ and Hamas are trying to exploit to push Abbas out and insert their own in his place. Their actions are gaining some support by those disaffected by Abbas’ rule.


Central / South America General-

Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva said that he favors a broad trade agreement between the Mercosur South American trade bloc and China. Lula was in Uruguay to dissuade its government from making a solo trade deal with China.

OBSERVATION – China is making deals of the century in order to gain inroads into Central and South America in part to secure strategic minerals and oil sources and secondly to increasingly isolate the US in the hemisphere. Where Russia/Cuba failed, China is currently succeeding.



64 posted on 01/26/2023 8:19:05 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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