Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
Well, maybe the truth i s too extreme to be understood. But I do understand it. Too many “oopsies” for it not to be a plan
All the way from depriving people for off label drugs that cured COvid 19 to suppressing truth about the so called vaccine on Twitter etc.
Anyone who tales the jab for the 5th or 6th time is courting sudden death or prolonged illness and a reduced quality of life.
THats why FLCCC Alliance have treatment protocol for mRNA inoculatopn indiced illness.The effect of the jab can be reversed in most people .
Please read this , you will be glad you did.YIOu are not current.
See here:
https://covid19criticalcare.com/reducing-cardiac-risk-after-covid-19-vaccination/
No post tomorrow as I’m taking a day off.
Globalism / Great Reset -
Many are looking into the tea leaves trying to figure what will come out of Davos next week. Here’s my 2 cents –
I expect that a dramatic, almost tyrannical push to get the climate change ‘reset’ back on track. The Ukraine threw those efforts off, but as warmer months approach you can expect the party line will be brought back. With the “crisis” over, countries may even begin to implement the climate change “emergency” orders similar to those issued for wuhan.
Second, I think there will be maneuvering to bring on the global economic collapse. The bipolar nature of the expectations for a global recession will be on line in a few months. Combined with national debts the season will be ripe for their ‘solution’ to the problem they have created.
Finally, a more aggressive push for CBDC and digital IDs (with increasing push for the addition of ESG data).
RELATED - Kalifornia is acting as a beta test for digitial identification. The project is aimed at creating a single digital identifier that can be used to provide proof of identity and obtain access to state services.
The California Department of Motor Vehicles said the rollout to pilot a secure mobile driver’s license or mDL, could come as early as late spring for a limited number of participants. The DMV said it is working with popular mobile wallet providers, including Apple and Android, to place the mDLs into their devices.
The DMV is also developing an open-source app to test alongside the mDLs. All of these pilot products will utilize the security capabilities already built into smartphones, including biometric readings or a PIN code...
Just like the test run by many banks of the Fed inspired CBDC that was started late last year, these many smaller rollouts are designed to fly under the radar as much as possible while working out the bugs for usability and deployability.
The increasing control of peoples lives are highlighted in the recent push for the “15 Minute City” concept. Fifteen-minute cities are popping up everywhere, and the World Economic Forum is wildly enthusiastic about them. Last year it was announced that Paris, France, would become a 15-minute city, and now the British city of Oxford is next.
The “15-minute city” concept is crucial in the United Nations Agenda 2030 and their Net Zero green agenda. The World Economic Forum is also pushing this new concept. Oxford, which has declared a ‘climate emergency,’ is hoping their 15-minute cities will help achieve the Council’s ‘Net Zero carbon Oxford’ vision by 2040.”
As early as 2024, Oxford plans to impose “climate lockdowns” on residents to help achieve the Council’s ‘Net Zero carbon Oxford’ vision by 2040.” The “15-minute city” concept is also crucial for the United Nations Agenda 2030. And not surprisingly, the World Economic Forum is also pushing the idea.
Oxford will be divided into six zones ‘to save the planet’ from “global warming.” Electronic fences are placed on access roads to ensure residents remain within their own zone.
Residents are allowed to leave their 15-minute city a maximum of 100 times a year, but then they must first register their car, which is tracked throughout the city via smart cameras.
OBSERVATION – I’ve touched on this in earlier posts. This dystopic plan would in the Before Years be considered totally unreasonable and controlling. Today it is becoming a reality. The globalists believe that they can achieve this because of the overwhelming success they had with the wuhan ‘emergency’ and all the restrictive actions they got away with.
RELATED - In an article published in the Guardian, Rebecca Solnit wrote –
To change our relationship to the physical world – to end an era of profligate consumption by the few that has consequences for the many – means changing how we think about pretty much everyting: wealth, power, joy, time, space, nature, value, what constitutes a good life, what matters, how change itself happens. …”
OBSERVATION – Again, using climate change as a lever to force economic change.
Many are tracking the actions of the WHO as they draft changes to the global treaty that would empower them to dictate ‘health’ standard to all member nations, changes that would avoid the treaty having to come back to the US for Senater approval. These changes were slammed last year when they first came out and the WHO publicly walked them back, but apparently the work has continued behind closed doors.
Given the reported gelatinous nature of the amendments, they could declare just about anything as a public health threat – and use that to go after the 2d Amendment rights of Americans, trumping the constitution. These changes are reportedly set to be presented later this year at its meeting of member states.
Wuhan virus –
See China for their report of wuhan deaths below.
The CDC just put out a safety warning about the Pfizer COVID bivalent booster. It appears that it may be causing strokes.
OBSERVATION – IDK if this is due to the incoming Republican investigations into the CDC and its response to the wuhan plandemic or not. But it seem warnings about the jabs are coming out more frequently – possibly in an effort to separate their collusion with Pfizer/Moderna.
Economy –
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress Friday that the nation would reach the statutory debt limit in January 19th – requiring ‘extraordinary measures’ that can only last for a finite period with a political clash looming this summer.
‘Once the limit is reached, Treasury will need to start taking certain extraordinary measures to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations,’ Yellen said in a letter to congressional leaders.
‘While Treasury is not currently able to provide an estimate of how long extraordinary measures will enable us to continue to pay the government’s obligations, it is unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted before early June,’ she wrote.
Battlelines are being drawn up in Congress. Members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus have said that spending cuts should match the amount of any debt limit increase.
Democrats are advocating a clean debt limit increase before the deadline, setting up a showdown between the parties.
“Congress must act on legislation to prevent a disastrous default, meet our obligations and protect the full faith and credit of the United States,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a statement on Friday. “A default forced by extreme MAGA Republicans could plunge the country into a deep recession and lead to even higher costs for America’s working families on everything from mortgages and car loans to credit card interest rates.
The White House says that it will not participate in any negotiations, but back the ‘clean’ increase plan.
OBSERVATION – One elephant in the room that I haven’t addressed much is the incredibly massive amount of debt this country currently has. One day it will have to account for it. The debt limit was at one time the tool used to reign in spending, now it is all too easy just to raise the limit.
Enter stage right the WEF and the Global Reset – a nearly every other country in the world is facing similar, massive debt.
Invasion of Illegals –
Townhall reports - The Department of Homeland Security announced new measures that would help illegal migrants avoid deportation if they agree to report U.S. labor violations.
The DHS claimed that using deferred action, the notion of protecting noncitizens from the threat of being deported, will make it easier for the agency to investigate violations of labor laws put in place by “exploitive employers.”
“Unscrupulous employers who prey on the vulnerability of noncitizen workers harm all workers and disadvantage businesses who play by the rules,” DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said. “We will hold these predatory actors accountable by encouraging all workers to assert their rights, report violations they have suffered or observed, and cooperate in labor standards investigations.”
OBSERVATION – Use of illegals for labor is one of the sore spots in our economy, and one that attempts have been made to counter over the years. Now govt is rewarding illegals for ratting on employers. I wonder just how long these employers will continue to have illegals in their work pools and facing potential blackmail for their employment matters.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Victor Davis Hanson has a hands down excellent review of the current racial divides in the nation today. Rwanda example is being played out in our cities today.
https://amgreatness.com/2023/01/08/a-rendezvous-with-rwanda/
SEE WHO above under Globalism / Great Reset above. If the reported efforts to modify the WHO treaty, some are saying that there will be major resistance to any declaration to supersede constitutional rights starting on a state by state basis.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group began operating in the South China Sea on Thursday, the Navy announced, amid heightened tensions with Beijing, which claims much of the body of water as its sovereign territory.
Two Chinese ships are already tailing the US group, a defense official told CNN, which consists of an aircraft carrier, a guided missile cruiser, and three guided missile destroyers.
The Nimitz CSG, entered the South China Sea for the first time as part of its current deployment.
OBSERVATION – China has been operating its carrier in ways that expose how it could threaten US/Japanese ability to counter strike in the event of a Taiwan invasion. This is just a reminder to the Chinese that we have a bigger club.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
China on Saturday reported nearly 60,000 deaths in people who had COVID-19 since early December following complaints the government was failing to release data about the status of the pandemic.
The death toll included 5,503 deaths due to respiratory failure caused by COVID-19 and 54,435 fatalities from other ailments combined with COVID-19. The National Health Commission said those deaths occurred in hospitals, which left open the possibility more people also might have died at home.
OBSERVATION – As always, one must hold China’s reported information at arms length. Interesting distinction made here between cause solely by wuhan and those with other ailments. Dispite the numbers, there seems to be little here to permit the branch covidians in the US to reinstitute their tyranny – though they’ve been trying. However the primary effect has been to further the industrial production chaos the previous lockdown and now apparently much wider spread infections have caused.
One thought – this has occurred following China’s relaxation of the zero-covid tyranny. One would think the Chinese hierarchy is allowing this to punish the population for its rejections of the policy and create a base for a resumption of the strict restrictions.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
Western intelligence indicates that Putin could announce a fresh mobilization soon. If a decision is taken within weeks, as many as 500,000 extra Russians could be trained and sent to the front by April
NOTE - These new mobilization plans have been bouncing around for many weeks now. Some of these conscripts could see the front within week of mobilization – as did many of the last mobilization. The question is – will Russia continue the human wave / cannon fodder attacks or actually provide more training that will be necessary for a successful offensive operation.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Russia launched a very large, ballistic missile attacks Kyiv as well as other major cities. It appears that they are following this attack up with cruise missile barrage(s). This follows a pause of nearly two weeks since the last such attack and is the first using significant numbers of ballistic missiles in an even longer period. Ukraine air defense is being hampered by fog in many locations.
The extensive use of ballistic missiles – many thought to have been launched from Belarus - raises a couple questions.
1) Were these missiles recently produced (Iskanders) or
2) do they represent the first of ballistic missiles Russia has been working to procure from Iran.
Many of these missiles struck residential and other civilian areas.
Contrary to Russian announcements, Soledar is still not under Russian control and fighting continues to be fierce in the town. Russia has also increased operations south of Bakhmut to try to form a pincer in that direction.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have reached the edge of Kreminna and are pushing Russian forces back.
Russian artillery was active along the LOC from the border area north of Kharkiv southward towards Donetsk.
OUTLOOK ——
One outcome of the recent missile attacks on apartments and other civilian targets is growing pressure to supply longer range weapons systems. Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian strategic bomber bases resulted in Russia pulling bombers further east out of range. Those redeployed bombers were involved in the overnight attacks – it just took them longer to reach their designated cruise missile launching areas.
It has become hard for Russia to hide the preparations for these attacks. As noted in a recent post, Russia deployed many missile capable subs and surface vessels in days prior and SIGNINT announced the bombers in route over established HF strategic comms networks. As long as Russia can strike Ukraine with these weapons, the balance of power will be on their side as they prepare for their ‘offensive’. Thus the pressure to arm Ukraine with ATACAMS and similar long range systems.
NEAR TERM assessment is that Russia will once again pause to assemble the missiles necessary for the next barrage – one to two weeks max. If Russia is able to get their hands on Iranian ballistic missiles things will get ugly as Russian has shown no restraint in targeting apartments, markets, power grid and other civilian areas with these weapons.
Belarus -
Observers in Belarus note that there has been decrease in the intensity of movements of the Russian Armed Forces by rail may potentially indicating the completion of rotation of part of the Russian contingent, which was trained at the training grounds of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The rotation of the Russian military indicates that in the near future we should not expect an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of Belarus. The function of Belarus in this case is to serve as a training base for the mobilized Russians.
OBSERVATION – Though these are the reports from covert observers in Belarus and relaying in party by Ukrainian intelligence one must still be vigilant. Yet no solid indicators of an impending Russian or Russian/Belarus invasion are present.
Increased push to get modern, western tanks and APC/IFVs into Ukraine as soon as possible for both their offensive as well as countering the expected Russian offensive.
Iran –
UK imposes sanctions on Iran prosecutor general over the execution of former deputy Defense Minister Akbari. Akbari held dual British/Iranian citizenship.
Black Swans -
A severe weather outbreak in the Southeast United States on Thursday, January 12, 2023, has left at least seven people dead, several injured, and extensive damage in its wake. A series of tornadoes in central Alabama killed at least six people and in Georgia, a passenger in a vehicle was killed when a tree fell on the car during a severe storm.
OBSERVATION – The nation has been hit with almost generational level storms, starting with the Christmas time blast of arctic air and snow that hit the northern plains and buried Buffalo under record snow. Now the almost non-stop deluge of Kalifornia combined with the breakout of tornados as those storms progress to the east. Tornados in December/January time frame are rare because the combination of warm moist air colliding with cold air masses doesn’t usually exist in the winter.
For being the third La Nina winter – things haven’t acted out as usual or as they have the previous two winters.
I’ve also followed extreme weather events hitting other parts of the planet. In many of those cases it is simply information bias that interjects. OTOH, rare rain/hail/snow events in parts of the world that haven’t seen these storms in over a generation do poke above the noise.
As I’ve noted in many previous posts, one cannot predict weather related disasters, but can estimate their effects on the current global economy/food chain. At this stage, my gut is that on a basis of weather, we will continue to see near biblical levels of major storms. How and where they will hit remains to be seen.
So, basically, an open-air prison.
Yep, you’ll own nothing, have no freedom and like it.
Yes, a compact society is much more easily controlled by limiting transportation to within a specific geographic location.
Dictators and unelected bureaucrats can decide who shall prosper, and who will die from neglect or hunger. It's the ultimate control !
The electronic digital biometric identity assures conformity, control over your finances, or we'll starve you out
"I'm from the government and I'm here to help"... Right ? /s
Globalism / Great Reset -
The WEF Davos shin dig kicks off officially today - there will be a lot of stuff (mostly brown and stinky) flowing out as reports over this week.
United States Embassy in Switzerland released the list of the 2023 U.S. delegation attending the World Economic Forum (WEF), which includes 11 current members of Congress.
The 2023 delegation includes the following three senators:
– Senator Chris Coons (D-Del.);
– Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.);
– Senator Joe Manchin (D-W. Va,).
Additionally, the following eight Members of the House of Representatives have been selected to be part of the U.S. delegation:
– Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Tex.);
– Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Penn.);
– Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.);
– Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.);
– Rep. Seth Moutlon (D-Mass.);
– Rep. Maria Salazar (R-Fla.);
– Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.);
– Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif).
While she is not listed as part of the delegation, Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is slated to speak at an event entitled “America (Un)Bound” during the conference. Other speakers include members of Congress from the U.S. Delegation, as well as Governors Brian Kemp of Georgia and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois.
OBSERVATION - Participation noted.
Japan is building a futuristic 175-acre ‘smart city,’ much to the delight of the World Economic Forum, which recently made a video highlighting the Globalist creation. Artificial intelligence, self-driving cars, futuristic food, and robots will be found in the government-monitored “Woven City,” created by Toyota.
OBSERVATION - This is the Japanese version of the “15 minute” city. While it doesn’t appear to have the same draconian measures for leaving the city as the European versions do, it does advance a Chinese-styled social credit system.
With much of wuhan behind us, the WEF/GGR tyranny it created is still very present and virulent in places. Recently, German authorities want to put a celebrated Jewish composer and Holocaust survivor in a psychiatric institution and force her to take the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine.
Inna Zhvanetskaya, 85, a Ukrainian-born Jew who survived the Holocaust and is a resident of Stuttgart in southern Germany, was charged by a German court with admission into a psychiatric institution where she will be forcefully injected with the COVID-19 vaccine twice.
The court order authorizing her forceful transfer to a psychiatric institution and her forced vaccination stated that this is “for her own good.” (Related: Holocaust survivor warns COVID-19 measures similar to Nazi Germany’s subjugation policies.)
Furthermore, the German court has officially appointed a professional guardian for Zhvanetskaya, despite her being of sound mind and this being against her wishes. The court order stated that Zhvanetskaya has been diagnosed with several mental illnesses, including dementia, delusional disorder, narcissistic “grandeur self-image” and egocentrism. The court also claimed that Zhvanetskaya suffers from heart disease and severe obesity.
OBSERVATION – Same calls rained out here in the US to force the jab. Germany is one of the more closely aligned test beds (as I call them) for the WEF model of global governance – everything from a (failed) green energy push, social credit and wuhan compliance. It will eventually come to America.
In a preview of the demands for more taxation being brought before the Davos conference, OXFAM is demanding that food companies should pay windfall taxes to help tackle global inequality.
The organization asserted that food companies — like energy companies — have used climate change, the surging cost of living, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to increase prices for consumers.
Oxfam said the world’s top 1% gained nearly twice as much wealth as the remaining 99% combined. Meanwhile, 1.7 billion workers live in countries where inflation is outpacing wage growth.
The organization also analyzed 95 companies that posted windfall profits and found that most pass on these profits to shareholders while charging consumers higher prices.
Oxfam executive director Gabriela Bucher told the AP, “The number of billionaires is growing, and they’re getting richer, and also very large food and energy companies are making excessive profits,”
“What we’re calling for is windfall taxes, not only on energy companies but also on food companies to end this crisis profiteering,” she added.
At least one country has already implemented a windfall tax similar to what Oxfam has proposed.
For the whole of 2023, Portugal has introduced a 33% tax on food and energy companies that record profits 20% higher than the average of the last four years.
Revenue raised from this windfall tax will go towards welfare programs and to help smaller food retailers.
OBSERVATION – First the Oxfam claim “Oxfam said the world’s top 1% gained nearly twice as much wealth as the remaining 99% combined.” Well, I guess they are in the right place where these 1%rs are meeting to plan their Orwellian take over of the world eh?
This is but an outgrowth of the whole GGR/WEF redistribution of wealth play and displays a total ignorance of the whole of the economics necessary to get food on the table.
Invasion of Illegals –
The mayor of New York traveled to the Mexican border city of El Paso on Sunday and declared that “there is no room in New York” for busloads of migrants being sent to America’s most populous city.
OBSERVATION – The hypocrisy is over whelming here. El Paso is a fraction of the size of NYC, yet is having to deal with orders of magnitude more illegals that ‘sanctuary city’ NYC.
Biden / Harris watch –
On Sunday, Joe Biden gave a speech at the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr where he repeated false claims about his supposed involvement in the civil rights movement and protesting apartheid in South Africa.
“I’ve two political heroes. My entire life. When I started off as a 22-year-old on the east side of the civil rights movement,” Biden said. “I got elected to the United States Senate when I was 29 and wasn’t old enough to take office.”
In 2020, Biden repeated a story for weeks that he was arrested in South Africa while trying to meet with Nelson Mandela. He later admitted the story was not true.
This all on top of more and more classified documents being found lying around Biden offices and residences.
CW2/Domestic violence –
As our Marxist swamp govt continues to try to disarm the country in advance of attempting to complete the subjugation of the nation – the Second Amendment has become a major front. A federal appeals court on Friday struck down a ban on bump stocks, while the ATF just published its new rules that outlaws arm supports for AR base pistols. Due to be hit in court soon as it is fraught with illegalities.
IN RELATED - At least 80 county sheriffs and prosecutors have vowed not to enforce the new Illinois gun control law that bans 170 kinds of semi-automatic rifles and places limits on ammunition magazines.
OBSERVATION – Sheriffs are understood to be the highest duly elected law authority and their stance against Pritzker is going to get hot. Pritzker threatened them with removal and told them to ‘uphold the law’ whereas he forgot their oath was to uphold the constitution first. The Illinois gun ban will be facing a hard time given recent USSC decisions and expect the lawsuits to follow as well. This could be the first hard case of sheriffs vs swamp we’ve seen yet.
Antifa has stepped up its support of the radical Trans movement and so called ‘family friendly’ drag shows. Most recently Antifa showed up in bloc and bearing AR-15s to protect one such ‘show’ in Texas.
OBSERVATION - We on the right must take these hard core elements of Antifa very seriously if things go sideways. They’ve invested a lot of selective recruitment, training and equipping for these components and I have no doubt that they have the potential to be extremely dangerous tactically - not like the dumb **** who’ve showed up at times in the past.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Despite the Department of Defense rescinding the COVID-19 vaccine mandate, unvaccinated military members are still facing repercussions, including denied benefits, ineligibility for promotion, being non-deployable, and potentially diminished employment prospects for those already discharged.
Service members won’t “be separated solely on the basis of their refusal to receive the COVID-19 vaccination if they sought an accommodation on religious, administrative, or medical grounds,” according to the memo. Additionally, records of military members will be updated with the removal of “any adverse actions solely associated with denials of” COVID vaccine exemptions, “including letters of reprimand,” and reviews of members seeking exemptions will end.
Military branch commanders may, however, consider a service member’s vaccination status “in making deployment, assignment, and other operational decisions, including when vaccination is required for travel to, or entry into, a foreign nation.”
Air Force Second Lt. Addie Hulet and 10 other officers who refused to get the vaccine have been in an ongoing legal and financial battle with the government. The NDAA “does not prevent the Department of Defense or anyone else from putting on mandates on service members, once again,” she told the “Just the News, No Noise” TV show on Monday.
OBSERVATION – As the failed and deadly history of the jab has demonstrated, there is no readiness argument for the DoD to rely upon as even the Sec Def has gotten it after four jabs. This is nothing more than the continued effort to purge the services of otherwise very well motivated military and damage the morale and readiness of the services. Woke syncopaths in the General officer corps and defense bureaucracy have totally lost all credibility in my eyes and it is reflected in the significant missing of recruitment goals. Those remaining in the service who will benefit from this reversal of DoD policy will still face the historical record of adverse performance reports that cannot be reversed like the discharges.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Quickly approaching the Chinese New Year and nothing significant to note either way on the potential for China to attempt an initial move on Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
A former ally of the Russian President talked about the possibility that Putin might retire soon, rather then potentially getting killed in a coup.
A source who was close to Putin once claimed that “the president will nominate his chosen heir already this year, instead of risking his downfall,” the British Daily Mail reported on Friday. This comes after the Russian president’s popularity is reportedly in a freefall because of repeated military failures in the war in Ukraine.
According to his former ally, Putin will want to transfer the power to his chosen successor and retire to his palace near the black sea, rather than risk a coup against him, similar to what happened to Qaddafi and other dictators.
Furthermore, he claimed Putin will seek to give up power, negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and also not be part of the elections which are planned for 2024.
Putin got flustered by the rise of Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of the owners of the Wagner mercenary group. Since the start of the war, Prigozhin has been fighting for more power and resources, which shows his desire to push Putin to the side.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
RUMINT –
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant changes on the ground. The death count from the Russian missile strike that hit Dnipro city increased to 40, 3 children among them. The missile was reportedly an cold war vintage anti-ship cruise missile carrying 950Kg of explosives.
Some minor advances by Russian forces in Soledar while Ukrainian troops are reportedly in the outskirts of Kreminna
Pretty much the standard Russian artillery strikes along the LOC with additional ground attacks from Donetsk.
OUTLOOK ——
There is a lot of discussion in the various OSINT communities as well as other analysts of just what form or goals the Russian offensive will take. The most likely assumptions are an increased effort to secure the Donbas (and with it Kherson and Donetsk oblasts still under Ukraine control) - that was the war’s stated goals from the start. Other objectives, include Russian just trying to brace for the Ukrainian offensive to the most dangerous course of action – a second attempt to seize Kyiv. These are pretty general at the moment as the Russian tactical situation on the ground is evaluated. None of them look particularly good for Russia and will require a substantially larger and equipped military to accomplish. Much of the recent mobilization’s forces have been squandered in the meat grinder attacks in the east and Russian failed to supply them with even the most basic of equipment. Now if the rumored much larger mobilization occurs, there is very little evidence that the Russian logistics machine will be able to do it any better. Even Wagner Group is reluctantly reporting that many of the recent prisoner conscripts have been killed or wounded in their attacks around Bahkmut.
Logistics has put Russia into a further bind. Even the most recent missile/cruise missile attack on Ukraine last week featured obsolete KH-22 anti-ship cruise missiles and not its more modern Kaliber.
Last couple of months, the talk was Russia kicking off its offensive by the end of January 2023. We have now pushed past the half way mark and there is no evidence of a build up necessary to execute such an attack. In part due to the wasting of forces as noted above as well as the continued relatively warm weather that has not permitted the ground to freeze up sufficiently to permit greater maneuvers. Talk is now focusing on a Spring offensive and given what I’ve seen that is a better bet. However, Russia will lose a window of opportunity with frozen ground and will face the mud once again like their initial attacks in 2022.
Ukraine OTOH is calling for more armor from the west. The earliest these new western tanks would be available in any tactically significant numbers will be in the spring. Ukraine does have the capability to execute offensive operations once the ground freezes as it is better equipped and trained. Most likely the main attack will hit in the northern Luhansk Oblast region (Svatove - Kreminna line) as this would cripple logistical resupply to Russia’s Donbas efforts and permit Ukraine to swing southward behind current Russian defenses.
The Ukrainian threat towards Crimea will continue to freeze Russian forces there, making them unavailable for any defensive actions further east. This threat is more viable than Russia’s threat of a second attack southward towards Kyiv or western Ukraine.
Still a lot of speculation with a lot of wild cards
1) Russia getting their hands on more Iranian drones and ballistic missiles
2) The political infighting and threats to both putin’s health and position.
Indicators for both sides are pretty cloudy and poorly defined at the moment. This always leaves room for sudden developments.
Belarus -
The Belarusian MoD announced the beginning of the joint tactical exercises of aviation units of the Belarusian and Russian Armed Forces included in the aviation component of the regional group of troops. The exercises are expected to be held from January 16 to February 1.
Also, observers have noted many loaded Russian troop trains departing as other arrive. This lends credibility to the observation that the Belarus military is training many of the new conscripts and not building up forces for an attack into Ukraine.
What is concerning are the number of training exercises taking place in the southwestern corner of Belarus – a potential alternative invasion route that could target the western Ukrainian city of Kviv and logistical routes in from Poland. This would also be a very dangerous assault as it could bring Poland and a large chunk of the Baltic countries into the fight.
Great deal of discussion of supplying Ukraine with more modern western weapon systems such as tanks, attack helicopters, and infantry fighting vehicles.
Israel –
The Biden administration condemned Israel for giving $39 million in Palestinian Authority tax revenues to the victims of terrorism instead of the terrorists.
“It is morally just and important for the war against terror. There is no greater justice than using the funds for the victims of terror,” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said of the move.
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price condemned Israel’s actions as a “unilateral response” that will “exacerbate tensions,” and warned that the administration will raise the issue with Israel.
Price did not address whether the P.A. spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year to finance terrorist attacks against Israelis through its “Pay-to-Slay” program raises any tensions. The ruling PLO body spending millions to kill Jews is not unilateral, but Israel refusing to finance the murder of its own citizens is a dangerous move that will make peace difficult.
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh claims that if Israel doesn’t give it $39 million, that “will promptly lead to its collapse.”
OBSERVATION – Billions have gone to the ‘Palestinians’ with most of it syphoned off by terror groups and corrupt officials. The biden emphasis of keeping the money flow to terrorists works towards its goal of trying to leverage Israel into a two state solution – as THE solution for ending the ongoing strife. US (and other anti-Israel govts) create the problem and then try to impose the ‘solution’.
Meanwhile, ousted former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has called for Israelis to become involved in street battles to oust Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In an article published by Yedioth Ahronoth on Wednesday, Barak asserted: “This is an elected government. It is legitimate, but its actions and plans revolve around a coup. This makes it illegitimate.”
He added: “Therefore, it is the duty of every citizen to join the fight for the sake of the country, its security and its safety, as well as for the sake of the values of the Declaration of Independence, for the sake of equality, for the sake of human fraternity, dignity, rights and freedom.”
The article, published only in Hebrew, also stated that the: “Struggle will be resolved through demonstrations in the streets, squares, workplaces and the spaces of high education as millions are slated to take to the streets. This wicked government will collapse.”
OBSERVATION – While recent elections show the nation is split politically, it is questionable if Israeli’s want a civil war to break out.
Central / South America General-
Peru - Peru’s capital Lima was under a state of emergency Sunday, along with three other regions, as the government responded to weeks-long protests against President Dina Boluarte that have seen at least 42 people killed.
The state of emergency, in force for 30 days, authorizes the army to intervene to maintain order and suspends several constitutional rights such as freedom of movement and assembly, according to a decree published in the official gazette.
It covers Lima and the regions of Cusco and Puno, as well as the port of Callao adjacent to the capital.
Supporters of ousted president Pedro Castillo have taken to the streets and blocked roads across the South American country since December, demanding fresh elections and the removal of Boluarte, who has refused to step down.
The mass anti-government demonstrations first broke out in early December, after Castillo was ousted from office for attempting to dissolve Congress and rule by decree, seeking to prevent an impeachment vote against him.
OBSERVATION – Leftist violence in S. America. Peru is a critical copper supplier (about 10% of global production) and any disruptions would cause serious ripples across the globe.
Increasing instability in S America in general as there is more tension in Brazil as well.
What a roundup you do. Great work.
Just realized, over half way into January
Globalism / Great Reset –
Yesterday a rumor went rampant that Schuab, Soros and Gates, along with 50% of the listed attendees to the Davos confab bailed. Schuab later appeared to welcome attendees as well as join them for dinner.
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) said this week that every person should have a limit of three tonnes of C02 emissions per year and those who exceed their limit should be forced to pay for the pleasure.
In comments reported by Taagesschau, Schellnhuber said that there were are two competing property rights issues at hand, namely the right to spend one’s money on high emissions activities and the rights of the rest of the population to “have an environment worth living [in]”.
In a carbon credit style scheme, those who emit over the three-tonne limit by the middle of the century would need to privately purchase credits from those who are under the limit, he suggested: “Every person gets three tons of CO2 per year, but if you need more, you just have to buy it.”
OBSERVATION – The ESG component being developed along with a CBDC has long been noted as a means to control excess carbon used – programmable to prevent things like filling up one’s gas tank, etc.
Economy –
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the U.S. Treasury is expected to hit the debt ceiling on Thursday, 19 January 2023. The Treasury Department is prepared to take extraordinary measures to prevent a debt default, including suspending federal employee retirement fund investments, which could delay a debt default until June.
OBSERVATION – Running it right down to the wire. It doesn’t appear the republicans have a functional proposal to negotiate with biden, so the threat of at least a partial govt shutdown is growing by the minute.
Eggs have gone outrageously expensive and now are disappearing from store shelves. Costco and Walmart across the country are displaying empty shelves. In my corner of the Redoubt, Wally world’s egg shelves are barely half full, reflecting the situation. Most attribute this to the ongoing fight against avian flu that has caused tens of millions of chickens to be culled as the pandemic is in its second winter.
Invasion of Illegals –
A new law signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom — gives extraordinary policing powers to non-citizens in California. According to the Washington Examiner, SB 960, which takes effect this year, allows non-citizens to become police officers in the state of California.
OBSERVATION – This creates a plethora of legal and constitutional problems. Most of these ‘illegals’ will then apply the ‘law’ as they know it from what ever third world socialist utopia they came from. End result is the expansion of lawlessness.
Biden / Harris watch –
At a MLK memorial biden decided to threaten to carpet bomb right-wingers again. Also threatened to eliminate the 2d Amendment because the US has F-15s.
He had a bunch of other cringeworthy statements as well.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Reparations), who has just introduced a bill in the House, the “Leading Against White Supremacy Act of 2023.” The bill is designed to “prevent and prosecute white supremacy inspired hate crime and conspiracy to commit white supremacy inspired hate crime and to amend title 18, United States Code, to expand the scope of hate crimes.” The framers of the bill were thoughtful enough to provide a helpful explanation: “A person engages in a white supremacy inspired hate crime when white supremacy ideology has motivated the planning, development, preparation, or perpetration of actions that constituted a crime or were undertaken in furtherance of activity that, if effectuated, would have constituted a crime.”
If it became law, it could quite easily become the pretext for the persecution of people who expressed views that the ruling party disliked? The dissidents would be claimed to be operating according to the “white supremacy ideology” and prosecuted accordingly.
OBSERVATION – Once again, the left is attempting to criminalize any opposing view point. They failed to it legislatively when they controlled the house, but then dumb as a box of rocks Lee wont let that stop her.
Senate Joint Memorial 2, also known as the Greater Idaho bill, was introduced on the floor of the Oregon legislature by Republican state Senator Dennis Linthicum of Klamath Falls on Jan. 10.
The bill requests “discussion between Oregon and Idaho governments regarding relocation of Oregon and Idaho border,” according to the bill text.
Voters in 11 eastern Oregon counties have already approved ballot measures indicating their support for joining the State of Idaho.
“Eastern Oregon is culturally, politically, economically much more similar to Idaho than it is to western Oregon,” said Matt McCaw, a Grater Idaho Movement spokesperson. “Our movement is about self-determination and matching people to government that they want and that matches their values. In Oregon, we’ve had this urban-rural divide for a very long time.”
OBSERVATION – The split between red and blue will face a test with this one. I predict that the leftists in the Oregon State Legislature will kill the bill - they will see this secession as a loss of power.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
More Twitter file releases, but these have lost a lot of their notoriety the initial ones have. Simply more and more corrupt and illegal actions by the govt and private businesses to get opposing views silenced by any means.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Indicators –
China’s state-backed media reported that the Chinese navy carried out “confrontational drills” in the South China Sea over the weekend. The military exercises, carried out by China’s Shandong carrier strike group, included simulated air strikes and intercepts with J-15 fighter jets as well as attack and defense maneuvers with its guided missile destroyers, cruisers, and submarines. The exercises were aimed at preventing foreign incursions into Chinese waters.
China’s population fell last year for the first time in six decades. The historic downturn signals a much-discussed demographic challenge for the rising global power. The country’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop of roughly 850,000 people for a population of 1.41175 billion in 2022, marking the first decline since 1961, the last year of China’s Great Famine. India now becomes the world’s most populous nation at 1.412 billion people.
OBSERVATION - A decline like that is but a drop in the 1.4 billion people bucket. The trend does hold problems for China’s long term as fewer people means that cheap labor will gradually become scarce. But this is down the road aways.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
Russian media say that Putin will make an important announcement tomorrow about the war. This has triggered a lot of rumors and discussions surrounding putin’s speech tomorrow regarding the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine. Coming off of pro-russian telegram channels that have been relatively accurate over the past year regarding the Ukraine war comes the indicators that putin is going to announce the end of the special operation. Other recognize that with all the propaganda to date – especially the anticipation of another major mobilization for what now appears to be a spring offensive – that putin will officially declare war against Ukraine and that he will order a national mobilization.
So in light of the special speech tomorrow and the leadership shuffle. Declaration of war and full mobilization may be on the agenda in a major way.
OBSERVATION - Ukraine has turned into a quagmire for putin. It too a lot of Russia’s remaining resources to capture the small town (had only a 10,000 population before the war) after over 5 month and some estimate at tens of thousands of casualities. His health and perhaps increasing concerns around his ability to remain in power may generate a desperate move. Already rumored that Putin has given General Gerasimov until early March to capture the Donbas Region, there is growing pressure that something has to break for Russia and soon.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
RUMINT –
Ukrainian Intelligence is reporting that Russian President Putin has given General Gerasimov until early March to capture the Donbas Region of Eastern Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Pretty clear now that Russian forces have secured the town of Soldar, north of Bahkmut and are trying to push further to the west. Russian now appears to be focusing attacking Ukrainian forces in the town of Klishchiivka, just southwest of Bakhmut,in what appears to be an attempt to encircle Bakhmut.
More Russian attacks along the LOC from Kreminna to the Donetsk region, with associated artillery.
In Kreminna, Ukraine forces have gained a foot hold on the outskirts and it is noted that Russia has been bringing artillery fire into the main portion of the town.
Other than this, no significant tactical changes on the battlefield.
OUTLOOK ——
With the fight for Soledar wrapping up, I expect the focus to shift to Bakhmut. Initial analysis of the Soledar fight indicates that Russia reclaimed a tactic it used successfully early last summer, that being Russian armored units advancing behind large artillery and rocket barrages before dismounting and fighting house-to-house. Though heavily depleted, Russia still has the capability to mass planned fire on a relatively small front.
Looming on the radar – noted under Russia – RUMINT and Ukraine RUMINT above is the actions Russia may take to swing the war in their favor. Key indictors I’ll be looking for –
1. Does putin officially declare war, ending the ‘special operation’
2. What level of new mobilization is he willing to institute to get the man power necessary to press a new offensive.
3. Is putin looking to reduce the scope of any operation to just the Donbas or is he still looking for total conquest of Ukraine (his current operational goal)
4. Putin’s health status changes
5. What sources will Russia try to mobilize to equip this new mobilization.
Tomorrow will be the start of a set of new clues that will eventually display themselves in a slew of new operational movements.
Belarus -
The trial in absentia of Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya opened in Minsk on Tuesday, state news agency Belta said.
According to Belta, Tsikhanouskaya faces charges including high treason, “conspiracy to seize power” and creating and leading an extremist organization.
Tsikhanouskaya ran for president in 2020. Although the electoral commission in Minsk announced the victory of longstanding strongman Alexander Lukashenko, Tsikhanouskaya and her supporters allege that the results were fraudulent.
Following the election, she fled to the Lithuanian capital Vilnius and became the head of the opposition in exile.
On Monday, Tsikhanouskaya told the Reuters news agency, “In Belarus there are no honest trials. We live in absolute lawlessness in our country so tomorrow’s trial will be a farce and a show but not real justice.”
OBSERVATION - This is why Belarus military has been strongly opposing getting involved in a deep way with the war against Ukraine. Lukashenko knows this well – that it could instigate a coup if he orders them into battle.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbia calls on Russia to stop recruiting its citizens as mercenaries for war in Ukraine. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic criticized Russian websites and social media groups that publish recruitment ads by Russian state-backed mercenary company Wagner Group, a private army of tens of thousands which has played a prominent role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – Hmmmmm, Serbia has been a very vocal supporter of Russia in the Ukraine war. This makes me pause to think if this is a foreshock of what putin may be thinking to announce tomorrow.
Israel –
There were massive protests yesterday in Jerusalem by Netanyahu’s opponents calling for a stop to judicial reforms.
The Biden administration, which has worked hand-in-glove on a wide range of funding projects for Palestinians in the Middle East, now says it is adamantly opposed to allowing Jews to pray on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount.
Muslims have that right as of now. Jews do not.
A Biden State Department official insisted it would be “unacceptable” for Jews to be allowed to pray there. It’s because, the Biden official said, that would change the “historic status quo” that only allows Muslims to pray there.
OBSERVATION - Biden is once again showing himself and regime to be less of a friend and more of an enemy of Israel. This portends bad things coming our way in a Biblical sense.
Iran –
At the WEF in Davos, European Commission President Vonderleyen said on Tuesday she backed listing Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist organization to respond to the “trampling” of fundamental human rights” in the country.
Black Swans -
Weather service computer models suggest that the massively frigid arctic air mass over Siberia (with -80 deg F) will migrate to the east and give the US another slam in the icebox as early as the end of January. Historically, those Siberian airmasses have migrated eastward, the biggest question is just how strong will the air mass be in the face of the extended atmospheric river that has been hosing western US over the past several weeks.
The past few days feel like the calm before a storm on all fronts.
Globalism / Great Reset –
ET, phone home. . . . .
‘When you stop and think about it, it’s pretty extraordinary that we select group of human beings because of whatever touched us at some point in our lives, are able to sit in a room and come together and actually talk about saving the planet,’ climate envoy John Kerry said.
‘It’s so... almost extra-terrestrial to think about, “saving the planet.” If you say that to most people most people, they think you’re just a crazy tree hugging and lefty liberal, you know, do-gooder, whatever.’
Kerry — who delivered the speech during a WEF session titled Philanthropy: A Catalyst for Protecting Our Planet — decried that ‘allegedly wise adult human beings’ still ignored the science, mathematics and physics of climate change.
‘I’m convinced we will get to a low-carbon, no-carbon economy — we’re going to get there because we have to,’ he said.
‘And those worst consequences are going to affect millions of people all around the world, [in] Africa and other places. Of the 20 most affected countries in the world from [the] climate crisis, 17 are in Africa.’
OBSERVATION – Kerry was a nut job long ago, but this takes it to a whole new level. Is it the Grays or the Lizards who are making the call? BTW, Kerry’s home chews through as much energy as some small cities.
One participant in the World Economic Forum’s panel on “The Clear and Present Danger of Disinformation” at their annual meeting in Davos on Tuesday had a chilling prediction for hate speech laws in the United States.
The panel, hosted by former CNN host Brian Stelter, also featured Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) and Arthur Gregg Sulzberger, the chairman of The New York Times Company.
European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency Věra Jourová, who is from the Czech Republic, said there are reasons why many parts in Europe have strong speech code laws and the United States could soon have them too.
“Illegal hate speech, which you will have soon also in the U.S., I think that we have a strong reason why we have this in the criminal law,” Jourová said. “We need to the platforms to simply work with the language and to identify such cases.”
Sulzberger said overall disinformation is “the most existential” challenge and whatever problems with reporting stories inaccurately, the New York Times has made corrections. (Townhall)
OBSERVATION – We seen this in other countries on the increase and just a couple of days ago Rep Shilia Jackson Lee put a bill forth to make any contrary speech against the left’s agenda / narrative illegal. Yes, she’s a nut job, but she reflects the Marxist leftism of the country.
Wuhan virus –
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned of a potential link between the Pfizer bivalent COVID-19 vaccine in adults over 65 and ischemic stroke in the 21 days following vaccination. The FDA and CDC said they are not pulling the Pfizer vaccine off the market or restricting its use yet, but will conduct a rapid-response investigation and determine the next steps the agencies will take.`
OBSERVATION – The proper response would be to pull the ‘jab’ and require further testing and proof of safety. You are the test animals.
On Saturday, Sai, a former NHS Director of End-of-Life Care, wrote a Twitter thread which, amongst other things, gave a personal account of the changes to the system of reporting deaths implemented in the NHS:
“When four different diseases [are] grouped and now being called covid-19, you will inevitably see covid-19 with a huge death rate. The mainstream media was reporting on this huge increase in covid-19 deaths due to the Medical Examiner System being in place.
“Patients being admitted and dying with very common conditions such as old age, myocardial infarctions, end-stage kidney failure, hemorrhages, strokes, COPD and cancer etc. were all now being certified as covid-19 via the Medical Examiner System.
“Hospitals were switching to and from the Medical Examiner System and the pre-pandemic system as [and] when they pleased. When covid-19 deaths needed to be increased, the hospital would switch to the Medical Examiner System.”
In addition, “hospitals were incentivised to report covid-19 deaths over normal deaths, as the government was paying hospitals additional money for every covid-19 death that was being reported,” Sai said. “I have no doubt in my mind, that the Government has planned the entire pandemic since 2016 when they first proposed the change to medical death certification.”
OBSERVATION – This is what many of us have been saying for a couple years now. Big on this list were the financial incentives. This was fraud on a massive scale as these bloated numbers were used to justify the draconian measures that hamstrung our economy and even cost people their careers and even their lives.
Invasion of Illegals –
The United States remains on track to continue setting all sorts of records, the most recent is the revelation from Customs and Border Patrol that more than 250,000 “encounters” with illegal migrants along the southern border were recorded in December. That is the first time since records have been kept that this has happened. And just for the record, that figure of 250,000 does not include the estimated 65,000 known illegal “gotaways.” So in reality, we were well over 300,000. (ABC News)
OBSERVATION – this is not going to get any better any time soon. I think we passed a tipping point in the country that even if the wall got built tomorrow, there are soooooo many illegals in the country we will never be able to get a handle on it and deport.
Biden / Harris watch –
Former Government Ethics Office Director Walter Shaub, an Obama appointee, said the discovery of classified documents in President Joe Biden’s home and former office “reflects an inexcusable neglect” of basic security procedures. “It’s nothing like Trump’s deliberate refusal to return classified records demanded by the National Archives, but Biden’s own retention of classified records reflects an inexcusable neglect of the most basic security protocols,” Shaub said, Fox News reported Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - I don’t know if you’ve noticed – but Ive been saying it – something is stirring in the swamp and it doesn’t bode well for biden and another run towards the presidency. This is just the latest issue that has put biden in a corner, on top of the over the top issues with hunter and the associated crime involved. The fact the the MSM and now many 0bama agents are openly going after him strongly suggest that pressure is coming to bear to have him pull back from another run. Just a hunch, the pressure will increase the closer to his official ‘announcement’ date it gets.
Republicans were asking why the Biden administration’s Justice Department did not oversee the search for classified documents — while it raided former President Donald Trump’s private residence — but a new report finds the Biden DOJ considered it and just passed on it after consulting with President Joe Biden’s personal lawyers.
OBSERVATION – Remember, FBI kept Trump’s lawyers out of his house during their invasion. Double standards. Further – did these lawyers POSSESS THE REQUESIT SECURITY CLEARANCES TO HANDLE THESE DOCUMENTS?
POLITICAL FRONT –
Clock ticking on the debt ceiling – I don’t see much progress being made. Expecting partial shutdowns in the near future.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
The Energy United Electric Membership Corporation said the Pleasant Hill power substation in Thomasville, North Carolina was attacked Tuesday morning. The company said the equipment was damaged by gunfire, but no customers lost power.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
No indicators either way of note overnight.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Eyes on putin and any statement expected today on the Ukraine war.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Conflict continues in eastern Ukraine with very little change in tactical situation. Russia still pushing in the Bahkmut region and Ukraine pushing in the Kreminna and Savtove areas.
OUTLOOK ——
Things are on a kind of operational pause as both sides position for the advantage when the ground freezes. Waiting for final word on putin’s address and what that may entail beyond what has already been leaked (and highly suspect).
Black Swans -
Weather wildness continues. Iowa had its first set of January tornados in 56 years. Now a rare January disturbance/subtropical storm formed in the NW Atlantic Ocean on January 16, 2023. The system was designated by the NHC as Invest 90L.
Many meteorologists noted that the system was a subtropical cyclone while others compared it to the 1991 Perfect Storm and a 2013 unnamed subtropical storm for the precedent that a system that is a subtropical storm is not operationally classified as such.
“This hybrid system is a candidate to add to the historical database after the fact as a subtropical storm,” said Rick Knabb — the former director of the NWS National Hurricane Center and currently Hurricane Expert at The Weather Channel.
OBSERVATION – Can’t really predict weather but as these two incidents show, there may be some wild actions this year.
Kerry joined the 'elite club' by knowing how to marry up... He makes Biden look smart and honest.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Yuval Noah Harari, Klaus Schwab’s lead advisor at the Word Economic Forum, has announced that human beings are no better than “viruses or bananas” and the WEF has now reached the point where they can “hack humanity.” According to Harari, the idea that humans have free will is over, and for those who oppose, there will be no escaping what Harari refers to as the “Secret Police.”
OBSERVATION – I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again. Harari is pure evil and is the front man for many of the deeper, darker core WEF goals and policies that underlies their globalist agenda.
IN RELATED - The messaging coming out of the WEF is becoming increasingly sinister, with Klaus Schwab noting that the WEF will use communications channels to issue ultimatums to humanity. According to Schwab, the new internet will only be available to those who submit to the WEF’s biometric digital ID. “Now imagine the situation in ten or twenty years when an algorithm can tell any teenager exactly where he or she is on the gay or straight spectrum, and even how malleable this position is.” “You will not be able to hide from Amazon, from Alibaba, and the Secret Police. As you surf the internet, as you watch videos or check your social feed, the algorithms will be monitoring your eye movements, your blood pressure, your brain activity.”
OBSERVATION – Orwellian dystopic future that brings views of the antichrist and the book of Revelation to mind.
WEF’s new “Global Collaboration Village” in the Metaverse can be trusted because Interpol is on board, says Klaus Schwab.
More from Davos - Siemens Chairman Jim Hagemann Snabe: “If a billion people stop eating meat, it will have a big impact ... I predict we will have proteins that don’t come from meat in the future, they will probably taste even better ... They will be zero carbon and much healthier”
OBSERVATION - So what are they eating at their banquets – meat – not bugs.
New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, has said she is resigning, in an unexpected announcement that came as she confirmed a national election for October.
At the party’s first caucus meeting of the year on Thursday, Ardern said she “no longer had enough in the tank” to do the job. “It’s time,” she added.
“I’m leaving, because with such a privileged role comes responsibility – the responsibility to know when you are the right person to lead and also when you are not. I know what this job takes. And I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice. It’s that simple,” she said.
OBSERVATION – A big time WEF’r, she instituted draconian rules/laws that decimated what few rights New Zealanders can claim to enjoy during the wuhan plandemic as well as undercutting the nations power grid thru her global climate change drive. This has made her and her party very unfavorable and the party is facing defeat in the upcoming elections. Her sudden announcement was a shock and has raised questions on whether or not there are other forces at play here.
Wuhan virus –
The Biden administration is appealing the federal court decision from nine months ago that struck down the government’s face mask mandate on public transportation.
The Justice Department on Tuesday claimed in the 11th US Circuit Court of Appeals that it had every right to force the public to mask up on planes, trains and buses, the Washington Examiner reported.
OBSERVATION – the regime just figured out that they lost a tool that gave them power over the lives of the sheeple. Standard Marxist play to maintain power – nothing to do with any disease.
Economy –
Federal Reserve policymakers Wednesday reiterated their support for hiking the U.S. central bank’s target interest rate above 5%, even as inflation shows signs of cooling and the Fed’s own canvassing suggests economic activity is slowing in large swaths of the country. The Fed’s benchmark overnight lending rate currently sits in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
OBSERVATION – Indications of more prime interest rate increases in the coming months, though not as spectacularly large as recent ones. Still the specter out there that they’ve raised it too much too quickly.
According to a report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, early December 2022, hay stocks were 16.4% below the ten-year average and the lowest early December stocks on record since 1973. Stocks in the top ten hay-producing states were down collectively 20.8% below the ten-year average.
OBSERVATION - Winter precipitation has made significant inroads to alleviating the drought in much of the west. If wet weather continues into the spring the hay harvest should regain some lost ground.
Biden / Harris watch –
CNN has begun some investigative programs on the corruption in the biden family. A staunch supporter of the democrat party and so far the biden regime, this sudden switch further implies that there are undercurrents in the Swamp that may be maneuvering to dissuade biden from running for a second term in 2024.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa ramping up for possible violent protests in all the usual cities following an exchange of gunfire with the Georgia State Police at their “antimonious zone” were a law enforcement academy and training facility is planned for construction in Atlanta.
A Georgia DPS trooper needed surgery after getting shot by a militant outside the Atlanta autonomous zone. Officers returning fire shot dead the militant. Last month, 6 there were charged with domestic terrorism.
Antifa et al, shut down the road in the Little Five Points neighborhood of Atlanta to stage a protest over their comrade who was shot dead.
In response, Antifa elements issued a call for deadly vengeance against police as payback . Atlanta Antifa linked their call to a list of Georgia DPS officers & other cops they want to be murdered.
The primary blog for Stop Cop City called for retaliation via “reciprocal violence to be done to the police and their allies” on January 20th which they’re calling a “night of rage”
A Florida Antifa cell, Youth Liberation Front, has put out a call for violent vengeance after their comrade was “martyred” in a shootout against police at the Atlanta autonomous zone.
Seattle Antifa group @black_anarcho is calling for comrades to carry out violent attacks on police (@SeattlePD) on Friday, Jan. 20. The group suggests using fire or explosives in the attacks.
OBSERVATION – This group in Atlanta was exposed earlier readying for violent response to police efforts to clear the construction site. I’ve noted increased tendencies for Antifa to show up armed and more willing to shoot. The loss of one of their own to the nasty police may be enough to generate violent protests starting this Friday and likely into the weekend in all the usual Antifa stronghold cities. There is an increased chance of more gunfire being exchanged by Antifa protestors and police at these events. Also an increased chance of ambush style attacks on LEOs.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
NATO said Friday that it would deploy its fleet of E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System surveillance aircraft (AWACS) to Romania in order to perform reconnaissance of Russian military movements in Ukraine. The aircraft will reportedly operate out of a military airbase near the capital of Bucharest.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Lack of indicators are either a contra or else very good OPSEC. With the start of the Chinese new year just a few days out China may well be waiting for the Davos conference to end before rocking the boat.
IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath expects a sharp economic recovery for China by Q2 2023. Speaking to Reuters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Gopinath said, “Looking at the infection trends, and if those persist, we could see a very quick recovery starting from after the first quarter of this year.” Economists polled by Reuters see Chinese growth in 2023 at around 4.9%, with some analysts recently upgrading forecasts to 5.5%.
OBSERVATION - If this happens, prices for oil can be expected to increase based on increased demand lead by China. However, this could be counterbalanced if a major recession hits in 2023.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Putin’s anticipated talk on the war in Ukraine noted in yesterday’s RUMINT turned out to ba a big nothing burger. His comments were pretty much standard fare. “Everything we do today, including the SMO, is an attempt to stop this war and protect our people who live in these territories, these are our historical territories.”
Putin gave other sporadic statements throughout the day, basically the normal stuff that Ukraine is nazis, etc..
RUMINT-
More Kremlin intrigue building. Prigozhin and other notable voices in Russia, such as prominent milblogger Igor Girkin, are carving out a new space to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin without fear of retribution. Putin has so far decided to not censor these voices. Prigozhin directly attacked Russian President Vladimir Putin’s presidential administration and insinuated that some officials working there are traitors who want Russia to lose the war in Ukraine—one of his boldest attacks against the Kremlin to date.
OBSERVATION – Many see this open conflict as maneuvering that is designed to replace putin. Prigozhin is the chief financier of the mercenary Wagner Group, and more analysts are seeing these attacks as a way to position himself to replace putin. However, by launching these attacks, putin may be giving him enough rope to hang himself as he has also viciously attacked the MoD in the Kremlin for their handling of the war. Prigozhin, would be wise to stay away from windows in tall buildings or drink too much tea.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
RUMINT –
Unconfirmed reports that the US is moving to more active support of Ukraine’s goal of liberating Crimea and may likely provide longer ranged systems like ATACMS for that effort as well as targeting intelligence.
Ukrainian officials have indicated that Russian forces are concentrating in Zaporizhia Oblast, possibly for a large defensive or offensive effort.
NOTE – Concentrations in Zaporizhia Oblast may also be for the defense of Crimea as this area would be a direct run to the access into the territory.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Conflict continues in eastern Ukraine with very little change in tactical situation. Russia still pushing in the Bahkmut region and Ukraine pushing in the Kreminna and Savtove areas.
Russian politicial infighting (See Russia above) intensified as Russian forces have been unable to take advantage of the capture of Savtove – being thoroughly stopped from any further westward assaults.
A lot of discussion about supplying modern western tanks as well as other modern IFV/AFVs. Big push to get German tanks to Ukraine as quickly as possible, but Germany is dragging its feet to authorize any transfer.
Finally, I held off noting the crash yesterday of a helicopter of the State Emergency Service crashed in Brovary. As a result of the crash, the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs died: the minister, the first deputy minister and the state secretary,” the head of the National Police of Ukraine Ihor Klymenko said on Facebook.
The helicopter fell near a kindergarten and a residential building in Brovary. The cause of the crash is being investigated.
So far it seems to be a pilot error in foggy weather, and not sabotage of the copter but as noted, the investigation is continuing.
OUTLOOK ——
Continued - Things are on a kind of operational pause as both sides position for the advantage when the ground freezes. Waiting for final word on putin’s address and what that may entail beyond what has already been leaked (and highly suspect). Weather still dictating much of the battle on the ground.
It seems on a strategic level, there is a race between the West and Russia to get supplies and personnel ready for some sort of a late winter/early spring offensive.
Europe / NATO General –
The European Parliament just voted for a non-binding resolution calling for a special international tribunal to prosecute crimes of aggression against Ukraine by Russia, noting it should investigate not only Putin and the leadership of Russia, but also Lukashenka and leadership in Belarus
OBSERVATION – Note, “non-binding”.
The NATO Military Committee in Chiefs of Defense Session of 2023 began Wednesday. The Military Committee plans to discuss strengthening the defense and deterrence posture of the alliance and increased integration of military planning. The committee will also discuss the war in Ukraine and NATO deployments in Kosovo and Iraq.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
“For us, Crimea is Ukraine, Donbas is Ukraine — and it’ll remain so”, Serbia’s president Vucic says.
OBSERVATION - Vucic is definitely not happy with Russian actions in Serbia and the attempts of recruitment of Serbian policemen for Wagner’s forces. This marks a big split with one of Russia’s more vocal allies.
Took a day off yesterday to get other things done.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Davos confab ended yesterday and the snippets of the global elites views to be imposed on the rest of us keep coming out
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In general, Klaus Schwab called for the merger of the China model and Western governments. Elite one party rule that controls business, military, media, food, police, every aspect of people’s lives. The ruling elite pass their power and wealth down to their children. The peasant middle class never move up and are never free.
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Australian Safety Commission Julie Grant said that the world would need to ‘recalibrate’ how it defines and views human rights. As if that’s not enough, she explained that she explicitly meant freedom of speech. She’s not the only one who wants to turn the world into an oppressive surveillance state. Last year Israeli professor Yuval Harari said at the event:
“COVID is critical because this is what convinces people to accept to legitimize total biometric surveillance.”
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CNN alum Brian Stelter, hosted a panel discussion on none other than hate speech and disinformation.
During this panel European Commission vice president Vera Jourova said:
“Illegal hate speech, which you will have soon also in the U.S. I think that we have a strong reason why we have this in the criminal law.”
**
Why is Wray in Davos? Director of FBI Christopher Wray says “the level of collaboration between the private sector and the government, especially the FBI has made significant strides”
He states the FBI’s concern about technology getting into who they determine are the wrong hands
OBSERVATION – One word - Twitter.
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What is Manchin doing in Davos? Democrat Senator Joe Manchin (W.V.) was forced to walk back his complaint that free speech is a “problem” in America because official narratives are being challenged.
“The problem that we have is the open press system and basically all the platforms,” he said at Davos alongside other U.S. lawmakers, including Gov. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.), Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).
Following fierce online backlash, Manchin walked back his remarks on Wednesday, claiming that he just meant that he’s frustrated people aren’t accepting official narratives at face value.
“I totally apologize,” Manchin said on Fox Business. “I didn’t explain it properly. That was the problem. The open press that we have, which is absolutely the bedrock of democracy, ok? But there’s so much access. So, it used to be to where something was said, and it was accepted, and that was it.”
OBSERVATION - Manchin supporting censoring free speech and associated platforms. People aren’t accepting the govt narratives at “face value” because the govt has lost all credibility over the past two years and the American people are increasing seeing through it. Second – WEF wants to destroy the coal industry, yet Manchin is seen here sleeping with the enemy – after a fashion. He is sucking badly in polls and looks to be on the losing side of any reelection effort – providing the Republicans don’t snatch defeat from the jaw of victory once again as they did in 2022.
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WEF’rs are still seeking retribution against those unjabbed -even in the face of the overwhelming evidence that the unjabbed have been correct all along.
Tony Blair, former UK PM, suggests a worldwide digital infrastructure: “You need to know who’s been vaccinated.” Medical tyranny at the global level – all about power. Just look to the sanctions that were levied against the resistance the past two year as well as the incessant drumbeat from leftist to try to continue the effort to punish the unjabbed.
Wuhan virus –
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) didn’t include serious adverse events like heart inflammation on post-vaccination surveys even though the agency knew the issues could be linked to COVID-19 vaccines, documents show. Even before the surveys were rolled out in December 2020 after the first vaccines were authorized, the CDC knew that myocarditis—a form of heart inflammation since confirmed as being caused by the Pfizer and Moderna shots—and other serious adverse events were of “special interest” when it came to the vaccines, according to a newly disclosed version of the protocol for the survey system.
OBSERVATION – SMH, just more of the deliberate push of the jab on the American people by the CDC and Pfizer KNOWING FULL WELL there were deadly aftereffects from the jab. In the Before Years people would be going to jail over this.
Economy –
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday he favors a quarter percentage point interest rate increase at the next meeting, confirming market expectations.
“Beyond that, we still have a considerable way to go toward our 2 percent inflation goal, and I expect to support continued tightening of monetary policy,” he added. Other officials have pointed to a 0.25 percentage point increase at the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting, but Waller is the highest-ranking member to be that explicit.
OBSERVATION – Upward pressures on the prime rate will continue to erode our economy’s stability. Will this slow down be too little, too late to prevent an economic crash?
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Biden has found a reason to crack down along the border – people purchasing cheap eggs in Mexico and Canada and bringing them back. $10,000 fine.
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Australia to produce 36.6 million tonnes of wheat in its 2022-23 marketing year, an all-time high. After a smooth planting season, growing areas have received plentiful rain. Concerns that heavy rainfall during the harvest season might affect quality did not change the USDA’s forecast.
High wheat prices were a driver of last year’s soaring inflation in many countries, prompting warnings of a global food crisis. Now, market pressures are easing.
OBSERVATION – Good news for once, hopefully the weather will hold out thru harvest season.
Invasion of Illegals –
Shots were fired around 4:20 a.m. Sunday after two Texas National Guardsmen joined Border Patrol agents and a trained dog who tracked a group of migrants to an abandoned house, the report said.
The soldiers entered the building and three of the four migrants inside surrendered, the report said. The fourth fled through a window and allegedly resisted when a soldier tried to catch him. After a struggle on the ground the soldier was struck with fists and elbows, the document said.
During the struggle, the soldier shot the migrant with his M17 pistol. Only one shot was fired. No other injuries were reported.
OBSERVATION – Immigration “rights” groups are all worked up over this. It was bound to happen.
Biden / Harris watch –
President Joe Biden responded to the investigation into him Thursday over his handling of classified material by saying that he has “no regrets” over his actions.
OBSERVATION – With all the hullabaloo from biden and other leftists regarding Trump’s classified materials, this coming from a VP clearly not allowed the same privilages as a president to take and store SCI marked material in a box in a car garage and call it good is clearly over the rainbow. He has no regrets because he doesn’t give a rats rear end about protecting national secrets.
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How has ‘ol Joe been with others (mis)handling of classified documents?
Biden reportedly played an integral role in then-President Jimmy Carter withdrawing his selection to lead the CIA during the late 1970s — over the apparent mishandling of classified documents.
In 1977, the first full year of Carter’s tenure as commander-in-chief, American lawyer Ted Sorensen never got past the Senate confirmation process, largely stemming from his question-and-answer session with Biden, then a U.S. senator from Delaware.
According to Fox News, Sorensen admitted to taking boxes of classified records home with him after leaving the White House in 1964 — after working for the administrations of Presidents John F. Kennedy Jr. and Lyndon B. Johnson — as a means of using certain materials for a Kennedy biography.
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White House aides say President Biden will wait to announce plans for reelection until after his State of the Union address on 7 February. If he is able to ride out the multiple scandals that long.
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Speaking of 2024, the ‘current’ other half of the ticket continued to make even biden’s incoherent ramblings sound intelligent.
Harris: “The issues that are present in the climate crisis are varied and it requires us to be present and to be in front of each of the iterations and variations that include extreme weather that produces a lot of water and extreme weather that produces drought.”
CW2/Domestic violence –
Atlanta as well as other Antifa stronghold cities, called for a “Night of Rage” to reciprocate for the death of the Antifa protester. A Twitter account called “Scenes From the Atlanta Forest” called for vengeful violence.
OBSERVATION – As of this morning, I’ve not seen any significant violence from this call of protests. But then the weekend is youn. This has potential to gain some traction in Atlanta, but little elsewhere given the very little MSM coverage of the ongoing sit-in protests, other arrests for terrorism and now this shooting. This group in Atlanta have shown a willingness to resort to lethal violence and there is a risk of that in any of the associated protests this weekend.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Interesting that Musk, known to be a WEF hobnobber, is lashing out at the WEF for trying to impose its global government on an unwilling population.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden’s Justice Department has just sent a letter to House Republicans saying that it will not co-operate with document requests from GOP committees and investigations.
OBSERVATION – Calculated move by the regime knowing that it can tie up subpoenas for upwards of years in the courts and thwart investigaitons in the lead up to the 2024 elections.
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The Supreme Court announced this afternoon that the leaker of the Dobbs draft opinion remains at large.
OBSERVATION – This has lead to all kinds of speculation. To me only two logical options stand out 1) It was one of the liberal court members and 2) one of the favored aids that will get to quietly disappear into the night while having their career protected by said liberal justice(s).
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Members of both parties in the House are entertaining the idea of using a rarely-utilized “discharge petition” to force a vote on raising the debt ceiling as Democratic leaders refuse to negotiate.
The procedural maneuver by which a measure gets forced out of a committee for a House floor vote is being discussed by Democrats and moderate Republicans as the United States hit its borrowing limit at $31.4 trillion, prompting the Treasury Department to take “extraordinary measures” to prevent a default in the short term.
OBSERVATION – Basically raising the limit without debate on the amount of the raise and any conditions associated with the increase. Once again, we see the purple republicans sideing with the democrats to put politicial expediency above forcing changes to the govt spendingpalousia. BTW, democrats have refused to enter any negotiations on the debt ceiling measure.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
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Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said that China is “more likely” to invade the island nation in 2027 when Chinese President Xi Jinping is seeking his fourth term. “To me, 2027 is the year to watch out… [If] in his previous three terms, he cannot claim any achievement during his office, he might need to think about something else for him to claim as his achievement or legacy,” Wu said. Wu left open the possibility that Xi could act sooner and added that Taiwan is willing to negotiate with China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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In an unusual move, PANTSIR-S air defense systems were hoisted by cranes onto the rooftops of Russia’s Ministry of Defense, and several other government buildings around Moscow as well as around putin’s Moscow home. S400 systems have also been deployed around the Moscow area as well. The deployment of these ADA assets has generated a great deal of speculation as to ‘why’. Some of the most straight forward suggest putin is afraid of a miltary coup – either by Wagner Group elements or MoD.
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President Vučić of Serbia and the Iranian foreign ministry declared they do not recognize the annexation of parts of Ukraine by Russia.
Serbia and Iran have been friendly – if not allied – with the Russia
OBSERVATION – Both the Serbs and Iranians backpedaling from Russia? Suggests that something is afoot and they don’t want to get tangled up in it at this time. As noted, both have been strong supporters. See Serbia/Kosovo below – Serbs are not providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
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The US Treasury Department designated the Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group as a “transnational criminal organization” and will impose additional sanctions next week against the group and its support network across the world, the White House said on Friday.
“These actions recognize the transcontinental threat that Wagner poses, including through its ongoing pattern of serious criminal activity,” National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby told reporters on Friday, ahead of the Treasury Department announcement.
Along with the new sanctions, the US has released newly declassified photos of Russian railcars traveling from Russia to North Korea and back in November, in what the US believes was the initial delivery of infantry rockets and missiles for use by the mercenary organization Wagner Group in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – With it seeming that the Kremlin trying to decouple from Wagner midst their spat and ‘allies’ like Serbia and Iran showing cold feet, this will in no doubt work in putin’s favor as the power struggle continues. I had to laugh at the ignorance expressed by some on the interwebs over the photo ‘quality’ of the Russian rail cars – idiots don’t realize that is how they were able to declassify them by reducing the resolution. Cant say more about that specifically – not allowed. This is perhaps why N Korea has been able to say they haven’t been supplying arms/ammunition to “Russia” as Wagner is a separate entity.
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Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov continues to frame Chechen fighters’ involvement in the war in Ukraine on distinctly religious grounds, thereby building out his reputation and the reputation of his power base.
OBSERVATION – Haven’t heard much from this snake in a while. Last known that Chechen fighters were working the Bahkmut sector, but really haven’t been seen as much of a force. Other reports have had them working rear areas – imposing ‘discipline’ on Russians seeking to flee fighting as well as being enforcement for occupation forces over the civilian population.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, warned the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on Thursday that the defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war. “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war,”
RUMINT-
Knives are out in Russia as General Gerasimov, 1st Deputy Defense Minister, has declared that Wagner PMC, run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, “does not belong to the structure of the Russian Armed Forces” in an official government letter.
Putin has essentially thrown Prigozhin under the bus. Without MoD, Wagner have no means. This follows a day after Prigozhin launched one of his most vitriolic denunciations of putin so far.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian casualties in Ukraine hit about 188,000, according to US intelligence.
NOTE – this exceeds the initial invasion force size.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
As with so many previous posts, even after skipping a day, very little change in the activity on the ground. One note is Russia has increased attacks on the south side of Bakhmut – a zone believed to be using what little Russian airborne troops they have left.
One item that is beginning to stick out has been a gradual increase in Russian artillery strikes along the border north -northeast of Kharkiv.
At least thirty-two (32) military Generals have convened for a meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, to discuss future “aid” and “tactics” for the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict.
OUTLOOK ——
Looks like the Russian effort at Bahkmut is shifing to the southern side of the town. OSINT and other analysts are noting that recent skirmishes are seeing platoon/company sized Russian forces apparently conducting recon in force, seeking weaknesses. Russians – and inparticular – Wagner forces are using just about every piece of artillery they can get their hands on to maintain their tactic of massive artillery fire covering for forward advancement of the Russian ground troops. Those artillery assets keep getting less and less with ammo supply issues combined with artillery tube losses (both from Ukraine counter fire and the wearing out of the tubes -warping- etc). Some indicators that the MoD may be willing to divert assets to other sectors – just to show Wagner how dependent they are on the Russian military.
Big discussions now concerning German Leopard tanks going to Ukraine vs the M1 Abrams. Looks like Germany is finally buckling. While there are a lot of cheerleaders for the M1, Ukraine’s existing logistics and training level is more affiliated with the Leopard and it is what the Ukraine military is asking for. Far quicker train up time and less logistics needed.
Finally, noting the pull back of Serbia and Iran’s unqualified support for Russia. May be an indicator of unease with the potential power struggle going on between Wagner and the MoD combined with putin’s poor health. Insider info on their part.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
The government of Serbia has decided to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine to support the country’s energy system, Serbian publication Nova.
NOTE – Serbia is trying to get on the EU’s good side as part of their petition for EU membership.
Iran –
Iran warned on Thursday that the European Union would “shoot itself in the foot” if it designated the Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist entity, a day after the European Parliament called on the EU and its member states to do so.
“We have repeatedly said the Revolutionary Guards are a formal and sovereign organisation whose role is central for guaranteeing Iran’s security,” Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said during a phone call to the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell.
OBSERVATION - This is one of the spinoffs from Iran’s nuclear treaty maneuvering. To Iran, the IRGC is sacred and the strong arm of the mullahs to main control of the country and project force in the region. This can also be seen as Iran setting up justification for any military strike (by itself or one of its proxies) against the EU.
Central / South America General-
Massive protests in Peru over the past few days. A massive fire reported near Plaza San Martin in Lima, Peru amid anti-government protest. Peru sent additional police forces to confront pro-Castillo protesters in Lima, Peru.
OBSERVATION – leftists not afraid to use violence to further their political goals. Again, watch the copper mining industry for any closures, that is big global leverage.
My takeaway was we desperately need a better class of 'elites'...
Slow getting the motivator going, up much later than usual last night with the grandkids.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Education Minister Chris Hipkins is set to become New Zealand’s next prime minister after emerging as the only candidate Saturday to replace Jacinda Ardern. Hipkins became well-known during the COVID pandemic when he emerged as an authoritarian crisis manager for New Zealand’s government.
In July 2021 he warned that the government will start tracking down individuals who haven’t “come forward” to take the COVID jab.
“I think early next year we’ll be in the phase of chasing out people who haven’t come forward to get their vaccination, or missed their bookings and so on,” Hipkins told reporters.
“So everyone will be able to get a vaccine between now and the end of the year. Of course, I want every New Zealander to come forward, but human behavior suggests that there will be some people that we actually have to really go out and look for, and some of that may spill into next year,” Hipkins said.
“But, our commitment is everyone will have the opportunity to get the vaccine by the end of the year,” Hipkins continued, adding that, in fact, “everyone WILL” get the vaccine.
OBSERVATION – Its all about power. With elections coming and his party underwater with the electorate, he may or may not have time to continue with his threats.
Biden / Harris watch –
When she visited Highland Park, Illinois, after a heinous mass shooting last Fourth of July, she had another ‘Veep’ moment. When addressing the press, she said,
“We gotta take this stuff seriously, as seriously as you are, because you have been forced to have take it seriously.”
OBSERVATION – What?
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The Department of Justice just announced they searched Joe Biden’s home on Friday and found SIX MORE classified documents. This comes after Biden said there were no more classified documents. Found were document including some from Biden’s years in the SENATE
OBSERVATION – Apparently biden’s lawyers didn’t sanitize the house adequately since now the DoJ was the one that found these. This as well as other discoveries regarding who handled the documents and how they got to there various discovery sites is gaining traction even in some corners of the MSM and liberal mouthpieces.
POTENTIALLY RELATED - White House is chief of staff Ron Klain has resigned. WH observers note he was the real power of the Biden administration. Is his departure some how related to the ongoing classified document scandal?
CW2/Domestic violence –
Down town Atlanta is in cleanup mode following Antifa’s temper tantrum overnight. Because serious violence failed to materialize on the original planned date of Jan. 20, the militants escalated their tactics for Saturday. They were hoping to burn down the Atlanta Police Foundation. They managed to set a police vehicle on fire and damage a number of businesses. Atlanta Police have arrested 6 people so far, some of whom were carrying explosives.
Far-left extremists & Antifa also gathered in Minneapolis to vandalize businesses, pass out propaganda & radicalization texts, in addition to raising more money for the domestic terrorist suspects arrested in Atlanta.
OBSERVATION – These Atlanta protests (called peaceful by CNN and other brain dead MSM outlets) have questionable traction in starting stuff on a national level. In 2020 Antifa piggybacked on BLM and the presidential election campaign protests/riots. This doesn’t seem to have the same inertia. It is notable that this was one of the most aggressive ANTIFA riots in some time.
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The Connecticut cell of terrorist-linked John Brown Gun Club, a violent extremist far-left militia, is urging its members to begin preparing NOW for violence this summer.
OBSERVATION – Affiliated with Antifa JBGC was one of the first to develop a gun-culture related training and support for Antifa’s overall operations. At one time also associated with ‘Redneck Rebellion”, an Antifa affiliated splinter group seeking to infiltrate and develop a presence in the predominantly Red rural area – but RR and JBGC has a parting of ways.
The catalyst for ‘violence’ is not readily apparent, but may have to do with classified document issues surrounding biden and hunter and any political transition.
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An Antifa cell in Salem, Ore. has used the mass shooting in Monterey P ark, Calif. as a call for comrades to join cells & get trained to use weapons. The group says it was a “presumably racist attack” despite police announcement stating that the wanted gunman is Asian.
OBSERVATION - As noted above, Antifa syngerized with BLM riots and are seeking another ‘racist” incident to spring board off of. This doesn’t appear to be the one for them though....
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
We are now at the front end of that window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Russian Air Force strategic bomber voice net was active on 8131 Kilohertz USB, 1644 UTC. Aircraft calling ground station and passing radiogram. Frequency was reportedly being jammed.
OBSERVATION – When these nets become active, there is have been Russian missile/cruise missile/drone barrages coming soon thereafter, Its been a good week and a half or so making another barrage highly likely.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian efforts to encircle Bakhmut from the north and south made grudging slow progress and updated mapping of forces show an increased encirclement in progress. Pretty much the same elsewhere along the eastern LOC with Ukrainian forces making headway into Kreminna.
Continued reports of Russian buildup in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with some Russian recon in force attacks northward.
OUTLOOK ——
Most likely Ukraine will be hit with another missile barrage before my next post tomorrow.
More brutal, bloody fighting around Bahkmut in particular as well as along the whole eastern front. Weather still dictating the curtailing of major offensives as the ground is just starting to freeze.
A lot of what Russia will do next depends on how quickly its generals can reorganize and gain control following recent shuffling in the high command. Also in the mix is Wagner and just how much ‘support’ they will be getting in the future from the MoD.
Protests in Stockholm on Saturday against Turkey and Sweden’s bid to join NATO, including the burning of a copy of the Koran, sharply heightened tensions with Turkey at a time when the Nordic country needs Ankara’s backing to gain entry to the military alliance. In Turkey, individuals burned a Swedish flag in front of the embassy in Ankara. Turkey has demanded Sweden to hand over Kurdish activists and prevent rallies attacking its leadership.
OBSERVATION – Protestors in Stockholm were supporters of Kurdish elements Turkey has declared to be terrorists and part of Turkey’s refusal to accept admittance of Sweden to NATO is Swedish allowing Kurd supporters to have such an open voice in the country.
**
Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki - ‘if Germany does not consent to the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks then we will build a “smaller coalition” of countries ready to send tanks. Poland will not look on while Ukraine bleed. Ukraine & Europe will win the war with or without Germany.” He further added “that Poland would not look on passively while Ukraine bleeds.”
OBSERVATION – Germany has really been hit with a lot of pressure over what some European nations consider as their reluctance to support Ukraine.
Iran –
Iran’s troubled currency fell to a record low against the US dollar on Saturday amid the country’s increasing isolation and possible Europe Union sanctions against Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards or some of its members. The rial has lost 29% of its value since nationwide protests following the death in police custody of a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, on Sept. 16.
OBSERVATION – While protests have died (almost literally) down, pressure continues as the protest movement has moved underground. Currency devaluation is going to continue Iran’s economic woes.
Syria -
Assad Regime artillery strike has targeted a Turkish base near Afes, leading to the death and injury of more than dozen Turkish Troops, this is on the same par as the Baylun Airstrike, where Russian airstrikes killed 40 Turkish Troops
OBSERVATION – Turkey, Syria (Assad) and Russia continue to do the dance in N Syria.
Turkey -
Erdogan says he will call for elections on March 10, so the elections will be held on May 14 after 60 days preparations.
OBSERVATION – This should prove very interesting. Turkey is experiencing inflation in the hundreds of a percent and the citizenry are not thrilled at that. Turkey also has its fingers in a number of hotspots across Europe, N Africa and the middle east.
My guess? Biden's got hundreds of classified documents out - if the FBI gave a damn they would raid Biden's brother's home, sister's home and Hunter's whore's homes and the FBI would dust for Chinese commie's fingerprints.
Did the Archivist, DOJ and FBI conspired together to keep this out of the news, and to allow Biden plenty of time to 'make it right'. The problem was Biden taking the classified material wasn't a mistake. It was intentional and keeping them was intentional. And Hunter used them. And there's a hell of a lot 'there there'...
If Biden and Hunter were innocent the FBI would have been called in and dusted the files for finger prints.
IMHO
And the excuse the documents were accidentally placed in a burn bag while leaving the White House won't work now... same with blaming this on low level flunkies (Hunter's laptop has pictures of classified documents on a table at a Birthday Party...)
Their newest 'excuse' that 'everyone' in power has classified documents at home is a lie - and undermines their endless hate attack against President Trump. Also whipping around the press bimbos in this short a time is backfiring. Even NBC bimbos need more time than two months to go from 'this is the world thing in the world and Trump needs to go to prison' to 'this is nothing since it's Biden'.
Good points.
Thanks
A little late this morning – been chasing the granddaughter around the house as she’s just learning to crawl (and so it begins)
Seem things have calmed some more - as the storm builds.
Biden / Harris watch –
Are they getting ready to toss biden under the bus? Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) are raising questions regarding national security amid the Biden document debacle.
“The reports about President Biden’s mishandling of classified documents are extremely irresponsible and disturbing,” Manchin said while speaking on Fox News. “These allegations should be investigated fully.”
Kaine reiterated the need for Biden to be probed, while also praising the DOJ’s decision to allow a special counsel to investigate.
OBSERVATION – Not the hard core leftists, but a crack in the dam.
**
Jeff Zients, the former White House coronavirus response coordinator, is expected to replace Ron Klain as White House chief of staff, two sources familiar with the plans told The Hill. Zients left his role as Biden’s first COVID-19 czar in April 2022 after advising the pandemic response effort and was replaced by Ashish Jha. He returned this fall ahead of the midterm elections to assist Klain with preparations for staff turnover as well as other projects.
The White House declined to comment.
Zients was director of the National Economic Council under former President Obama and before that was acting director of the Office of Management and Budget. Between the Obama and Biden administrations, he was chief executive officer of an investment firm, Cranemere, and was on the board of directors of Facebook.
OBSERVATION – Ok, let the games begin
**
Kamala quotes the Declaration of Independence at a Florida pro-abortion rally: “We are each endowed with the right to liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”
Notice how she didn’t say “right to life”
OBSERVATION – A not so subtle snub towards life. Democrats believe in death.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The son of Democrat House Minority Whip Katherine M. Clark was reportedly arrested during an Antifa riot in Boston, Massachusetts after allegedly vandalizing personal property and charged with assaulting an officer while resisting arrest Saturday night.
OBSERVATION – In a smaller protest associated with the call out by Altlanta antifa. NOTE, this is not the first instance that a rich or politically connected ‘kid’ has been arrested for Antifa acts of violence. In this same series an individual from Maine was arrested – with multimillionaire parents.
**
A group of pro-choice protesters gathered outside the home of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh on the 50th anniversary of Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion case.
The protesters converged on the sidewalk outside Kavanaugh’s Chevy Chase, Maryland, home. The march appeared to be organized by the far-left group known as Our Rights DC. The group tweeted a poster inviting members to participate in the march within the neighborhoods of Justice Kavanaugh and Chief Justice John Roberts.
The group chanted as they marched in the rain, saying things like “cut his time short, a rapist should not rule the court,” and “no privacy for us, no peace for you.”
Several members of law enforcement could be seen standing nearby on Kavanaugh’s property.
OBSERVATION – The left’s continued threats of violence against conservative members of the USSC continues – and the DoJ is completely absent.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Republican National Committee is set to resolve a bitter leadership feud that has exposed perilous divisions within the institution charged with electing the next GOP president.
Those inside the fight believe the days ahead of Friday’s secret ballot at a luxury seaside resort could get even uglier as rebel forces within former President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement threaten to upend RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel’s reelection bid. The attacks have been led by McDaniel’s chief rival, Harmeet Dhillon, a Trump attorney.
OBSERVATION – If the republican party is to start getting credibility with the base again, McDaniel has to go. With the disastrous 2022 mid term results and the exposed flamboyant expenses that only served to boost the party elite and lack of fight for close election results – McDaniel is on thin ice. Her only chance are the deep pockets of the RINO donors and power brokers in the RNC to sway the vote.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
We are now at the front end of that window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch.
Indicators –
In his new year message to China, President Xi Jinping issued a veiled warning to the United States not to interfere in China’s relations with Taiwan. China’s state-backed media CCTV and Xinhua news agency reported Xi said China will be engaged in “serious struggles” against separatism and interference in its reunification plans for Taiwan. Xi, who is also the chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission, told the military in charge of border defense to raise their vigilance during the Lunar New Year and be ready for combat.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia expels Estonian ambassador. “Downgrading Diplomatic Relations”
**
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says that war between Russian and the West is not hybrid anymore, but “almost” real
OBSERVATION – Part of the ongoing narrative that tries to deflect Russian military failures by saying the war is against NATO and not Ukraine.
**
Russia announced its Baltic Sea Fleet is conducting combat readiness exercises.
**
The Admiral Gorshkov, a Russian frigate carrying hypersonic Zircon missiles, will join Chinese and South African navies for exercises starting 17 February. According to a statement from the South African National Defense Forces, the exercise is intended to strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, China, and Russia.
**
As mentioned in previous, the tide is shifting for Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin as he appears to be on the outs with the Kremlin after failing to capture Bakhmut with his troops.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Well, no Russian missile barrage as warned about yesterday but still in the mix in the coming days. Battles as Bahkmut, Soldar,Kreminna and Donetsk continue with little territorial changes.
The dust-up with Wagner and the MoD may be shifting to the MoD’s favor.
President Zelensky ordered General Staff to prepare additional military reserves. Looks like a long, hot summer.
OUTLOOK ——
Still looking at the increased probability of a Russian missile barrage attack in the next few days.
Bloody battles continue with Russian gains around Bahkmut and Ukrainian gains around Kreminna. All in all, the fight for Kreminna is the most significant of the two as it directly threatens supply lines to the northern Donbas campaign region.
It also looks like unseasonably warm winter weather is going to delay offensive actions by both sides. It also appears to be a scramble for each side to reman, rearm and reequip its forces for the offensives and counter offensives. At this stage the advantage is still Ukraine. Russia has wasted lot of men and material in its attacks in the east, with very little to show for it. Personnel readiness is even further behind, while Ukraine began a million man call-up at the start of the war. They have been getting training from the west and that advantage has borne fruit so far.
Belarus -
Observers and analysts monitoring Belarus still see no evidence of a buildup that could lead to an invasion to the south. It appears Russian units are rotating out of training with no abnormal equipment buildup.
Germany will not stand in the way if Poland sends leopard tanks to Ukraine, Germany’s foreign minister Baerbock says- Reuters
We will apply to Germany for permission to send Leopards to Ukraine, but even if there is no such consent, we will hand over the tanks as part of the “small coalition” - said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki
OBSERVATION – Germany realizing that Poland will get the leopards there one way or another and caving to the pressure.
**
Meanwhile the spat between Turkey and Sweden continues with Turkey threatening to block NATO membership application of Sweden.
Grand-kids grow up so fast... A few weeks ago one of the grand-kids insisted on 'picking up the check'... another step into adulthood. Enjoy them when they're young - someday you'll turn around and they'll be grown up - still wonderful and loved, but adults.
Believe me I’m loving it.
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