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Dara Massicot
@MassDara

“I’ve been quiet lately; buried in an avalanche of things. It’s that time of year again- the Russian spring draft. 145,000 is a slight increase over recent draft cycle goals. Big picture, their manning numbers don’t make a lot of sense right now, and it tells me a few things:

Their stated goals to reach an expanded force of 1.5 million remain aspirational and probably unlikely, without multiple rounds of mobilization or an extension of the conscription period from 12 months to 24 months again (as it was until mid-2000s).

If they elongated service time to two years, assuming two drafts each year at a capacity of 130-150k, that could net the military somewhere around 300,000 additional conscript billets on the books in a few years, but it comes with drawbacks…

…Extending service time used to come with domestic drawbacks. One of the reasons the military reduced service from 24 to 12 months was to reduce draft evasion, coupled with other qualitative changes to service conditions (and due to force restructuring at the time).

Russia could also keep running mobilization at replenishment rates or intake more with another large pull to count that towards the goal. Shoygu is on record saying he has “25 million” in reserve which tells me a lot about mindset there (but that’s another topic)

The 400,000 goal for more professional enlisted underway right now is probably not going to yield good numbers— it has never worked like that in Russia— unless there is more coercion to enlist than there is at present.

Then, subtracting the casualty figures (which are all over the map), the resignations, captures, and desertions, for which data is anecdotal at best, and the overall manning picture looks worse. I don’t have a lot of confidence right now in their numbers. but-

To reach aspirational plans of 1.5 million, serious changes would be needed like changing conscription and more waves of mobilization. Given the state of equipment losses, such a plus up of manpower would be suitable for occupation in the medium term, not major operations.

Long term, why do they need an expansion? With the return to divisions (also aspirational) they need staffing. That’s a larger conversation on Russian force regeneration. Keeping in mind they face some capacity challenges, the intent is there.

Or, Shoygu and Gerasimov get the boot after this faltering offensive part 2, and a new team comes up with a new plan. /end”

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1642881007907897345