Posted on 07/25/2023 6:46:22 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a
The Case-Shiller home price numbers are out for May. The national home price index is down -0.46% YoY as The Fed slows M2 Money growth into negative growth territory. No doubt Biden (and Karine Jean-Pierre) will take credit for slowing home price growth, although The Federal Reserve slowing monetary stimulus is mostly responsible.
The Fed is still slow walking shrinking its enormous balance sheet. Although The Fed is cranking up their target rate.
The Taylor Rule suggests a 10.42 target rate to cool inflation. They are only half way there!!!
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
NW Arkansas housing prices have fallen about 15%. Homes are on the market longer than last year.
FED is meeting today and tomorrow and will probably increase the rate by 1/4 point.
Bkmk
“Will The Fed continue to demolish the housing market???”
People have plenty of money from the stock market. The capitalization of major companies totaled is about $95 trillion.
Apple alone is priced at about $3 trillion. Microsoft I believe is over $2 trillion for some reason. These stocks are broadly held.
The Chinese have become wary of investing in high-priced American property. They know NYC and San Francisco are getting trashed.
The Russians will not be buying into the US for decades.
The lack of foreign interest should lower pricing in certain areas.
.25% more rate will not really affect the car and housing market, it may not tip the commercial lending market, but it sends the same worn out message. Both buyers are sitting on the sidelines until rates drop immensely, 50% less carry cost, half the rates.
Inflation is driven by the Russo-Ukraine war in many ways we are not seeing, and the fed has finnaly turned off non free market place for banks to dump their crap. Grain and fertilizer up 50%+ and oil has a 30% premium. The commercial real estate crash is here, not because of fed actions but end date or the internal terms on commercial loans make a setting of the new rates unavoidable for the both the bank and the investors. Think the Fed might have fighured out they needed to slam the brakes hard with post covid and do a hard, early and fast recovery time adjustment, instead in practice they boiled the frog slowly. A good portion of the population has no idea what has happened or why cities bussiness districts are dead and rotting.
see the graph at:
“Chart represents weekly averages for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Average for 1971-2023 as of June 15, 2023. Source: Freddie Mac PMMS”
https://themortgagereports.com/61853/30-year-mortgage-rates-chart#loan-purpose
The current mortgage rates are only higher than during the administrations of Donald Trump and Barack Obama. Barack Hussein Obama was Muslim-educated to hate interest and Trump inherited low interest rates and the Fed lowered them more to prevent a Covid economic meltdown and to boost local government real estate tax collections to preserve the generous public employee pension system. However, the Fed overdid it and now young people face a housing market lockout.
Young people will not get a house soon, but their teachers will get their pensions. ‘Free’ public education has costs.
Well, kinda. The Taylor Rule doesn’t account for all the other variables that cause inflation. Interest rate hikes are just one very crude tool to curb inflation. There is no common sense and no coordination between the Biden Administration, Congress and the Federal Reserve.
It seems to me that inflation is best fought by attacking the source of inflation.
Really, am I crazy to suggest to directly fix the things that cause inflation? What so difficult to understand?
The inflation we are experiencing is caused by multiple policy failures that inhibit productivity. The government spends too much. The government regulates too much. The government prints too much money. The government taxes too much. The government inhibits energy production. The government makes everything too complex, inefficient and unproductive. Jeez, the last one accurately describes government and every lazy ass government employee.
If you work for government, get this through your head. You don’t build a damn thing. You are a worthless piece of chit that stands in the way of American greatness. Your ass needs to be unemployed before any productive member of American society loses his job.
Shutter and defund massive portions of government and the problem is solved.
Fix the Eff’n government and then let the market set interest rates. Yeah, put the eff’n Fed out of business. Those Keynesian/MMT morons have no clue what they are doing.
“A good portion of the population has no idea what has happened or why cities bussiness districts are dead and rotting.”
DC court judges have come down hard on obstruction of Congress.
Obstruction of a commercial business district could be made a federal crime. This would enable San Francisco to be cleaned up and made fit for business again. Women don’t want to navigate through a Bidenville homeless camp to get to their workplace.
“If you work for government, get this through your head. You don’t build a damn thing. You are a worthless piece of chit that stands in the way of American greatness. Your ass needs to be unemployed before any productive member of American society loses his job.”
Disconnect your utilities, don’t drive on public roads and never call 911 ...
“You don’t build a damn thing.”
“Disconnect your utilities, don’t drive on public roads and never call 911 ...”
The water and sewer pipes are laid by contractors. The watersheds I believe were gathered up by government employees. Land for the sewage treatment plants was typically obtained by government employees.
Roads are built & repaved by private contractors to specifications typically set by government employees.
The Taylor Rule has not been a useful guide to predicting monetary policy for the last 25 years.
“911”
In New York City:
“Credit for the first Bellevue ambulance goes to Dr. Edward B. Dalton, who had designed an effective system of removing injured soldiers from the battlefield during the Civil War. Recognizing that the wounded were sustaining significant additional injuries in the wagons being used to transport them, Dr. Dalton added roofs for shelter, a suspension system to cushion the ride and a red cross for identification.”
“Each hospital ran its own ambulance service, typically staffed by a physician and driver, with dispatching duties handled by the police department....”
“The 911 System was created in 1968 linking NYPD and EMS communications. Ambulances were dispatched from the police communications center at 240 Centre Street. The following year, the Department of Hospitals was replaced by the Health and Hospitals Corporation, a quasi-municipal agency responsible for managing 16 city hospitals, three extended care facilities and the ambulance and transportation service (which became NYC*EMS the following year). The NYC*EMS agency had 16 municipal ambulance stations scattered throughout the city, most attached to city hospitals.
“In 1969, the NYC EMS system consisted of 109 ambulances; 60 were city ambulances and 49 were provided by the voluntary hospitals.”
https://www.jems.com/operations/a-short-history-of-new-york-citys-emergency-ambulance-services/
“Fix the Eff’n government and then let the market set interest rates.”
The market sets the rates.
call me crazy, but why do central planners ONLY focus on cooling inflation through weakness in demand and forced economic deterioration rather than through encouragement of supply expansion?
You must be a lazy ass government employee since you defend the real enemies of America.
Homes still going up in good areas of Phoenix.
Someone flipped a home just down the street.
I am watching if it sells.
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