Posted on 08/03/2023 8:19:43 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a
US Treasury yields are up today along with 30-year mortgage rates. There is a lot happening in bond markets.
It’s been a tumultuous week for yields, with the Bank of Japan’s policy tweak, and the Treasury increasing its funding needs. But Fitch was the weatherman with its US downgrade, telling us about the downpour we can see for ourselves just by taking a glance at the fiscal data. In short, the US faces a perfect storm of a vertiginous fiscal deficit, a near-historically swollen debt load, ballooning interest-rate costs and collapsing tax revenues.
First, the deficit. It’s close to historical wides, bigger than it’s ever been outside of a recession, and almost as wide as it was in the depths of the GFC. It’s the largest in the world in GDP terms, and it is currently heading in the wrong direction. This heaps more pressure on the government debt-to-GDP level, already uncomfortably high at 112%.
Second, tax revenues. These have seen almost their largest annual fall ever, in an economy that’s supposed to be growing at 2.4%.
And then there’s rising interest-rate costs. The total interest expense as a percentage of tax revenue is expected to rise sharply in the next year or two, and make new highs by the end of the decade. However, these CBO forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt as they are based on a 10-year yield of only 3.8% (the ten-year average has been higher than that in every decade bar the 2010s and 2020s).
But never fear! Janet “Too Low For Too Long Creating Asset Bubbles” Yellen is still US Treasury Secretary.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Bidenomics the only one with Square Wheels and you can’t wait for them to fall off
Second, tax revenues. These have seen almost their largest annual fall ever, in an economy that’s supposed to be growing at 2.4%.
Why would tax revenue fall? I know we’re at historic lows on paid taxes, but it’s been that way since 2018.
Beware any small business owners. Myself and several other self employed friends have received huge invoices from IRS goons demanding payment for taxes they say we owe from years ago. It is a nightmare since you can’t fight them or contact anyone to ask why. Just a certified letter saying you owe them.
The numbers don’t add up. In addition to your post, we supposedly have job growth, low unemployment and record workforce participation.
Somebody ain’t telling the truth. ( pardon my colloquialism)
Isn’t fascism wonderful?
Small businesses have no protection because they don’t pay huge sums to the politicians and government employees under the table. Only the government-approved get to exist. The rest of us should just go deal drugs or traffic kids, like they want us to.
Babyboomers are retiring in droves. In their 50’s and 60’s they paid huge amounts of tax revenue into the system because they were at peak earning levels and had few deductions.
Now, they have no jobs, no income and pay no income taxes.
Those insiders at Fitch and their friends made a lot of money depressing the stock market. Buying low and now the market is up today.
So, why have tax revenues fallen to historic lows? Anyone have an answer?
Taxable income has apparently fallen, that's where tax revenues come from. I'd say that's an indicator of an economic slowdown.
Hah - I’m there. Went from six figures to below taxable income.
It’s hard to believe even a brain dead thug like Biden would be stupid enough to run on “Bidenomics”... What’s next? Is Biden going to run on high gas prices?
Curious to see what the rates are going to look like for the short term treasuries, 3, 6 month and 1 year
The question those morons in Congress should ask is when will the debt/gdp ratio decline
Pre Biden 47% of all U.S. citizens paid no taxes. Biden’s economy is going to raise that to 50% or 57%—maybe higher. I’m on mostly retirement income now and only paid $600 in federal income tax last year. I plan to make that $0 from now on. Everyone should do it to permanently knee cap the tax and spend democrats.
Why would tax revenues fall indeed?
FY2022 $4.9T collected. Estimated FY2023 $4.71T expected.
Governments enjoy inflation the most due to the increased tax revenue.
I wish I could. I paid 15,000 and still had to write a check for 995 dollars. I’m trying to get it so I don’t have to write a check.
Over and over again the Courts have said that there is nothing sinister in so arranging affairs as to keep taxes as low as possible. Everyone does it, rich and poor alike and all do right, for nobody owes any public duty to pay more than the law demands” — Judge Learned Hand
As a result of Biden’s deal on the budget and debt ceiling, the IRS got mega bucks.
I think this was part of a deal to let Hunter go!
The IRS already hired collections agents to press these old cases.
So you have all new incompetent agents trying to make a name for themselves.
87,000 new IRS agents already in the queue!
Expect that call soon.
"Hi. We're from the IRS and we're here to help you!"
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