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ISW has observed a significant inflection in western Zaporizhia Oblast
Institute for the Study of War ^ | September 21, 2023 | George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, Noel Mikkelsen, Daniel Mealie, Thomas Bergeron, Mitchell Belcher

Posted on 09/21/2023 8:43:35 AM PDT by Timber Rattler

#Ukrainian forces are for the first time confirmed to be operating armored vehicles (Stryker & Marder infantry fighting vehicles) beyond the Russian anti-tank ditch and dragon’s teeth obstacles near #Verbove.

We are not yet prepared to say that Ukraine has broken through this portion of the Russian line since these vehicles have not yet penetrated the last visible prepared defensive positions in the area.

But the ability to bring armored vehicles to and through the most formidable Russian defenses intended to stop them and to operate them near prepared Russian defensive positions is an important sign of progress in the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Recent footage indicates that the Ukrainian breach of the first two layers of this Russian defensive line is significant enough to permit Ukrainian vehicles to advance through them.

It also indicates that Ukrainian forces have suppressed Russian artillery and other anti-tank systems in the area enough to bring their vehicles forward and have them survive.

These small tactical steps may be the start of a larger and more significant advance, although it is too soon to make confident forecasts.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


TOPICS: History; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: danielmealie; georgebarros; instituteforwargrift; isw; katerynastepanenko; mitchellbelcher; nato; noelmikkelsen; russia; thomasbergeron; ukraine; zaporizhia
Potential breakthrough in the second line...!


1 posted on 09/21/2023 8:43:35 AM PDT by Timber Rattler
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To: Timber Rattler; JonPreston; dforest

I love the smell of fire bag in the morning.


2 posted on 09/21/2023 8:45:29 AM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: All

I don’t know why this debate continues.

Pre war facts. Russia has 100% draft. Few are exempt. They draft all young men of military age. They are sent for 1 year of training and assignment. US Vietnam norms were 2 years. This 1 year schedule for all of drafted men was PRE WAR, and it remains in place.

After 1 year these trained troops are sent home as members of an Inactive Reserve. The US has a similar arrangement for its Reserves, some are weekend types and some are Individual Ready Reserve — the same as Russia’s configuration.

With the years having accumulated, Russia has 20-25 million men of fighting age who are in their Inactive Reserve forces. Of these call it 2 million saw service within the last few years.

This is all in addition to their active duty armed forces, which pre war numbered 1.1 million.

Putin activated 300,000 personnel last year. Of the 25 million available, he activated 300K. They did not need to be trained from zero, they were Reservists and needed only refresher.

Most of Russia’s forces are not in Ukraine. They have a big country to patrol. But should a need arise, certainly more than the 1.5% of the Ready Reserve could be called up.

Putin is up for re-election in March. It’s now a 6 year term and this will be his last. Dmitry Medvedev is his designated successor within United Russia, the party Putin leads. Read some Medvedev speeches and see if you really look forward to him taking the reins. Putin is a moderate. Any challenge he is getting politically is from the more hardliners.

Regardless, his re-election is likely. And so is another few % of his Ready Reserve.


3 posted on 09/21/2023 9:18:25 AM PDT by Owen (.)
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To: Timber Rattler

Looks like Ukraine found a weak spot in the Russian lines. Interesting. Let’s see if they can hold their gains.


4 posted on 09/21/2023 9:19:34 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard ( Resist the narrative)
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To: kiryandil

Notice how this is speculation. They need this to justify another 24B rip off of US taxpayers.


5 posted on 09/21/2023 9:28:40 AM PDT by dforest
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To: Timber Rattler
Ukrainian forces are for the first time confirmed to be operating armored vehicles (Stryker & Marder infantry fighting vehicles) beyond the Russian anti-tank ditch and dragon’s teeth obstacles near #Verbove. We are not yet prepared to say that Ukraine has broken through this portion of the Russian line

So which is it? Eff’n propaganda.

6 posted on 09/21/2023 9:37:43 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA (The Delay Trump’s trial, delay. Elect Trump President. Trump pardons himself. )
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To: Timber Rattler

But the ability to bring armored vehicles to and through the most formidable Russian defenses intended to stop them and to operate them near prepared Russian defensive positions is an important sign of progress in the Ukrainian counteroffensive. ==

They are simply deeper entering into kill box. They are been shot at from 3-sides now instead of 1.


7 posted on 09/21/2023 10:16:22 AM PDT by nickfrost1
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To: dforest
Notice how this is speculation. They need this to justify another 24B rip off of US taxpayers.

Just like the NPR/PBS "begging bowls"...

8 posted on 09/21/2023 10:18:38 AM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Timber Rattler

Zelenskii asked US leaders to supply ukies F35s instead of F16s. Fact.

They want not less than 50 planes.


9 posted on 09/21/2023 10:25:21 AM PDT by nickfrost1
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To: nickfrost1

“””Zelenskii asked US leaders to supply ukies F35s instead of F16s. Fact.”””

When did he ask for 50 F-35s?


10 posted on 09/21/2023 12:08:53 PM PDT by ansel12 ((NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.))
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