Posted on 11/27/2023 8:04:51 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
Hammer time!
With existing home sales collapsing to their lowest SAAR since 2010, new home sales are the only pillar left holding up any hope in the US housing market. However, with housing affordability at its lowest since at least the early 1980s, (and homebuilder sentiment slumping as mortgage rates rose), it’s no surprise that analysts expected new home sales in October to tumble 5.0% MoM (after their unexpected 12.3% surge in September).
As a reminder, The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of home-purchase applications tumbled to 120 – the lowest level since 1995 – as mortgage rates hit 8% for the first time in 23 years in October.
Source: Bloomberg
So, it should be no surprise that new home sales were even worse than expected, plunging 5.6% MoM (and making it even worse, the 12.3% MoM jump in Sept was revised down to +8.6%)…
Source: Bloomberg
The trend of downward revisions continues…
The New Home Sales SAAR of 679k is flat from April (that was below all economists’ forecasts)…
Source: Bloomberg
It appears the homebuilders finally hit their wall eating the gap between these two lines was just not sustainable…
Source: Bloomberg
And as we noted previously, homebuilders can’t be filling this gap either – between the current 30Y mortgage rate and the effective rates that borrowers are currently paying on their home loans – (i.e. subsidizing new home sales) forever…
Source: Bloomberg
The median new home price fell 17.6% y/y to $409,300; average selling price at $487,000
That is the lowest median price since Aug 2021, catching back down to existing home prices…
Source: Bloomberg
Is Powell winning his war on affordability? Or crushing the middle class’s main source of wealth? Or is it Hammer Time??
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Prices down over 17% and so taxes will go down.... when?
Every good Marxist knows the rules:
What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine.
My bad. I saw the headline, and figured this either had to do with retired Rapper M.C. Hammer or Paul Pelosi & The Man from Berkeley.
NEVER
Weird! New neighborhood going in down the road from us (grrrrr!) with prices from mid 500k to mid 800k. Some have already sold. WTAH?
🙏🇺🇸🇮🇱👍
The day after Biden is convicted of his crimes
Wow. Those sound pretty steep. At least to me. Might be good prices for someone else.
Get used to Bidenomics. The senile pedo will get 90 million votes in 2024. Easy to print ballots by the truckloads.
Prices in our neighborhood have not dropped. Houses sell in a week or two. We have an inventory shortage in Atlanta.
Death and Taxes. Not even a nuclear bomb can destroy those 2.
Candle flame is brightest just before it goes out.
Keep in mind, the people that are buying a $500K to $800k house most likely just sold a house for the same or more.
The charts I see on existing home sales are basically flat. No one wants to sell because they is so little inventory in most areas to buy.
However, NEW construction sales were at a 18 month high in September. The amount of new homes available is DOWN 29% from Sept 2022. Meanwhile the sales of new homes is up 34% in comparison to Sept 2022.
Everyone who has been griping about the “ridiculously high” prices for quite a while should be happy.
Prices down over 17% and so taxes will go down.... when?
Most countys do their mass appraisals every two years so there’s a 2-year lag in realizing the next price level, up or down.
A Stormtrooper Breakdancing? Now, I have seen it all!
Gettin’ Jiggy.
County Assessments are not “appraisals”.
“Weird! New neighborhood going in down the road from us (grrrrr!) with prices from mid 500k to mid 800k. Some have already sold. WTAH?”
This could be a good time to buy if you need a home. Prices are down. Interest rates are up but there’s this thing called refinancing adn the next move is expected to be down for rates. Buy at the current lower price, refinance when rates go down, be happy. Or just get an ARM and watch it go down by itself. When rates start down prices will go up fast because everyone ignores that there is still a large housing shortage in most submarkets.
Most states wont automatically reduce the value related to property taxes. Homeowners need to file a petition to get the value lowered to market.
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