Posted on 12/14/2023 6:42:56 PM PST by davikkm
Last two Christmas’s were the slowest ever at UPS. It’s rare for new routes to be created. In 2018 in my building there were so many routes created they started taking drivers within months of hire where it usually takes 3-4 years in my area as many as 10 in places like Philadelphia to get a shot at driving. 2021 alot of those routes started getting cut and 2022 they were mostly all eliminated.
Amazon is the biggest delivery business in the US now. That certainly has taken a share out of UPS.
Two things
1)The fed is “astoundingly wrong” forecasting rates > 3 months out.
2)4Q before an election year is usually the most juiced quarter in the election run up. The current quarter with the market setting all time highs is a classic example.
That may be true but it could be tied to Amazon delivering with their own fleet instead of UPS or USPS.
From 2019: https://www.brownstoneresearch.com/bleeding-edge/amazon-now-has-a-larger-logistics-network-than-ups-and-fedex/
Bigger than the Postal Service???
Cutting interest rates does not increase inflation.
Raising interest rates does not reduce inflation.
Inflation is caused by government mismanagement of the financial system, specifically by "borrowing" money to spend in excess of what can be directly collected from taxes. It works because most people do not understand how their pockets are being picked or who is doing the picking.
Rising interest rates protect the inner circle of banks who create new money that the government "borrows". But it crushes the lesser banks and other outer circle institutions. Ultimately it wrecks the entire economy and even the inner circle cannot survive that.
Inflation also wrecks the entire economy, but the effect is a little slower than rising interest rates. And it is much easier to shift the blame to someone else. "Big Business" or "Greedy Labor" are the most convenient targets.
And the remedies? Yes, they are complicated, painful, and nasty.
Cuts of about 50% of all government spending is required.
That is going to throw a lot of people out on the street. They had better have some place to go. The only place that they can go is into small businesses of some kind. Large corporations will be dying on the vine without the network of government subsidies and regulatory barriers that protect them.
Elimination of most regulations and licensing barriers to formation of small business is required.
The "Healthcare" business is more than 20% of the economy right now. It is not sustainable and most of it has to go. Health insurance is an extortion racket designed to hide the cost of medical care and who is paying for it.
The pharmaceutical industry is another huge fraud designed to extract the maximum amount of cash from patients without actually curing them of anything. The collusive arrangements and protective regulations they enjoy are direct violations of 100-year-old antitrust and consumer protection laws. Jail terms for a great many executives would be a good start.
All the "mandates" for renewable energy must be dropped. None of it has a net return on investment except for hydroelectric power, and there are very few locations suitable for that energy source.
Modern civilization is based on cheap energy. That means oil, gas, and coal. It could mean nuclear power if we are very careful about pollution control. It does not mean solar power, or wind power, or geothermal power, or "biomass". We passed the point where firewood could be a sustaining energy source several billion people ago.
Inflation is theft. The beneficiaries are people getting most of their income from government sources, when tax collections cannot cover those payments. Debasement of the currency is a time-honored strategy for keeping the game going while longer.
It always crashes eventually. We are rushing toward that "eventually".
Amen. Great econ lesson in a nutshell.
>The scheduled rate cuts will increase inflation. Maybe Powell is working against Biden’s re-election.
They’re going to crash the economy just like in 2008 before Obama, trying to put Newsome in place. The problem is, his state is $60 billion in debt.
Great post.👍
Good post.
Hysterical nonsense. If the outlook were so grim the Fed would act now.
Could it be that there is an election next year! Humm!
Bttt!
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