The Gathering Storm: 91% of Fund Managers Predict Falling Rates, Echoes of Past Crises

Citizen Watch Report ^

[davikkm]

A sense of foreboding emerges as 91% of fund managers unite in the belief that interest rates are destined to fall. This unnervingly high consensus has historically preceded major market downturns, reminiscent of the Dotcom bear market in 2000-2001, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the Covid panic in 2020.

[brownsfan]

You know, if you predict a market trend long enough, sooner or later you’ll be right.

I’m going to beat the market and go listen to Marc Chaikin! /s

[Leaning Right]

> You know, if you predict a market trend long enough, sooner or later you’ll be right. <

Old joke: Economists have predicted 9 of the past 2 recessions.

But now we have perhaps the most incompetent administration in American history running things. So maybe all bets are off.

[dynachrome]

Interest rates fall in time for the election and bidet’s corpse gets re-elected with 300 million vote.

[SaxxonWoods]

Do people really think the cycle is just going to stop? This is all as normal as it can be. These adjustments always happen. Ride the waves, big opportunities are always coming. Don't listen to permanent losers who want to drag you down where they reside.

[aquila48]

Uh??

Markets love low interest rates. Everytime there’s even a hint that they may drop the market shoots up.

[Signalman]

That’s what I thought. If banks and money market funds are paying lower interest rates to account holders, won’t account holders tend to move their money into equities for higher returns?

[Honest Nigerian]

Looks like Citizens Watch Report is a dud website, but somehow their stupid and vacuous content gets posted at FR.

[calljack]

I’m think it has more to do with companies needing low interest rates to fund operations and develop new products. Growth companies need low rates for years as they grow to profitability. High rates stunt growth. Individual and retail investors have little to no effect on the market. Institutional investors move markets.

[aquila48]

That’s part of it, the other part is that lower interest rates stimulate the economy.

More people can afford car payments, mortgages, etc.

[PeterPrinciple]

I’m think it has more to do with companies needing low interest rates to fund operations and develop new products.

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I would disagree, they heed low interest to cover up bad management decisions.

[calljack]

That comment is not based on economics. Sounds like you think everybody running companies are a bunch of idiots who just run around making bad decisions. While I am sure there are some, that train of thought dies not represent the majority. Maybe some high profile examples have created that opinion but I don’t think it reflects reality. Opinions vary.

[Zathras]

I can tell you one thing.
The high tech job market matches 2001 exactly.
We tried to get GWB to pay attention w no luck.
Thats why I knew 2006 was going to be a GOP bloodbath.

[PeterPrinciple]

but I don’t think it reflects reality. Opinions vary.
\————————————
What you propose is the way is used to be and the way it should be.

The evidence supports my position.

It very much applies to our federal government. THEY NEED LOWER INTEREST RATES to cover up bad management decisions..

Yes, there are exemptions.

[PeterPrinciple]

That comment is not based on economics.

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Business is NOT based solely on economics. There is very much a psychological aspect to business/life

I spent 40 years analyzing small business for profit management.

Big business deals with OPM which makes management decisions worse.

Has any of the low interest loans/grants helped a business become more profitable? They are rare. But the ones that bootstrap themselves without help are the survivors.

What I learned is most people/business are cash flow managers, not profit managers.

There is a huge difference between the two.

Now there may be a correlation between cash flow and profit or not. It depends on the individual.

Right now, individuals/small business/big business/govt is spending past and future wealth, not current earned profits.

It is pretty much cash flow Managment all the way. Forget what you learned about economics, there is MUCH more to it.

I grew up poor, still think/act like I am poor. The truth is I am should no longer be a wealth accumulator, but spend some of the moldy stuff. Some one is going to spend it foolishly: me, the nephews or the govt.

History has proven this.

[calljack]

Well stated sir.

[calljack]

I think business cards more about it than government. Business eventually has to answer to somebody. Government does not.

[Jacquerie]

I love the walls of worry posted to FR.

Rarely acknowledged is that the current Bull Market began in October 2022. The NAZ is up 50%.

Shhh.