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'REAL unemployment rate 6.3% - 7.4%': Deep dive thread into Jan Jobs Report RAINS all over Biden's parade
Twitchy.com ^ | 2/2/2024 | Sam J.

Posted on 02/03/2024 2:45:56 PM PST by NetAddicted

The January 24 Jobs Report dropped today and of course, our pals on the Left are doing what they do every month and acting like Biden is doing a great job! So many new jobs created! Unemployment down! BIDEN BOOM they say.

And as usual, it's a bunch of horse crap.

Big thanks to E.J. Atoni, Ph.D. for doing the actual footwork and showing the reality of our country right now.

Hint, it ain't good.

STOP going crazy about this jobs report: BLS themselves told us last month that data from Jan '24 and later months are NOT directly comparable to prior months b/c of methodology changes - stay tuned for a full thread on this jobs report... pic.twitter.com/l7g4TZ7x5S

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

And here we go:

Jan jobs report🧵- here's what you need to know that the talking heads and gov't statisticians won't tell you, including why the real unemployment rate is btwn 6.3% and 7.4%... pic.Recommend/2powAlBaoN

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

But wait, there's more.

Lots more and none of it looks good for the Biden administration or Democrats in general.

First the headlines: Nonfarm payrolls rose 353k last month Unemployment rate steady at 3.7% (more on that later) Note that updates to the BLS' data make it difficult to compare Jan '24 to prior months, so this monthly change needs an important qualifier...https://t.co/jCKEXc6AvN

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

In brief, things once again look good b/c prior periods were revised down; the new seasonal adjustments and other changes reduced the number of payrolls in every month last year except Dec; cumulative monthly difference is -1.3 million w/ average monthly difference -126k... pic.twitter.com/SyVMfPwqvG

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

Gotta love those magical revisions.

Ok, only if you're Biden.

So, do we have more jobs or not? Depends on which survey you look at: establishment survey, which allows for double counting, continues rising while household survey declines - there's an unprecedented gap btwn the 2 right now: pic.twitter.com/MIWKMeuaFc

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

Another important divergence is part-time vs. full-time; even after adjusting for seasonal changes which are huge in Jan, economy still lost full-time jobs and only gained part-time jobs... pic.twitter.com/nE0sPq7w6D

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

Not to mention how many Americans are having to work multiple jobs just to tread water in Biden's economy.

That's a continuation of an established trend: part-time has trended upward fairly consistently while full-time has leveled off; economy has lost ~1.6 million full-time jobs since Jun '23 and replaced them w/ ~1.6 million part-time jobs, which helps explain the next red flag... pic.twitter.com/Xi6pkAVZBB

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

Weekly hours are plummeting, now down to lowest level since covid lockdowns; aside from abnormalities of '20, it's at the lowest level since the Great Recession w/ housing meltdown and global financial crisis; firms are cutting hours and replacing full-time jobs w/ part-time: pic.twitter.com/RYxIsc4Pit

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

Weekly hours are plummeting.

Not good.

As people work fewer hours, their paychecks buy less, even w/ hourly raises, b/c prices are still rising faster than weekly earnings; significantly higher hourly wages still leave workers behind - about 4.3% behind Jan '21... pic.twitter.com/lCDIe7lRDn

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

As far as where the jobs are, they have overwhelmingly been created in gov't and gov't dominated/funded healthcare sector - take away both direct and indirect gov't expenditures funded by debt and Y/Y job growth turns negative, pointing to unsustainability... pic.twitter.com/i7sVaoYyIk

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

Government jobs.

Color us SHOCKED. Biden is growing the government ... and calling it 'job creation'.

Interesting to note who has the jobs: they've all gone to foreign-born workers; not only are native-born workers way below their pre-pandemic trend, but they're even below the pre-pandemic level (Jan '24 vs. Jan '20): pic.twitter.com/k4nBBvYw2t

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

Foreign-born workers.

Shocking.

In just the last year, a net 193k native-born workers lost their jobs, while a net 1.2 million foreign-born workers gained jobs (important to use Y/Y comparisons w/ these datasets b/c they're not seasonally adjusted): pic.twitter.com/9cHXHtnS59

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

Holy crap.

Welcome to Biden's America.

And the number of people missing from the labor force remains stubbornly high, artificially reducing the unemployment rate... pic.twitter.com/Z2z6RPlkg1

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

Depending on which methodology you prefer, you can calculate a more realistic unemployment rate that accounts for all of these missing workers: somewhere btwn 6.3% and 7.4% - that's not horrific, but significantly higher than "official" 3.7%... pic.twitter.com/yq0CcOpE80

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

TLDR: economy is still adding jobs, but they're overwhelmingly lower pay, fewer hours, and either directly or indirectly paid by gov't; also, Fed will need to look for a different excuse to cut rates and end QT - another banking crisis would fit the bill perfectly... pic.twitter.com/013Ji5NQuD

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 2, 2024

But hey, otherwise great report, Joe.

Aces.

======================================================================

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====================================================================

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TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: atoni; biden; employment; jobs; jobsreport; labor; twitchy; unemployment
There are lots of graphs in the online article.
1 posted on 02/03/2024 2:45:56 PM PST by NetAddicted
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To: NetAddicted
Fed will need to look for a different excuse to cut rates and end QT - another banking crisis would fit the bill perfectly...

Bookmark this. As they prep for the election year ...

2 posted on 02/03/2024 2:53:14 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (The kernel of our firm's job is to go with lots. - tnlibertarian job offer letter)
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To: NetAddicted

Wow, I can’t believe the MSM is reporting this. Oh wait ...


3 posted on 02/03/2024 2:54:35 PM PST by CatOwner (Don't expect anyone, even conservatives, to have your back when the SHTF in 2021 and beyond.)
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To: NetAddicted

Butt, butt, butt joementia and pals wouldn’t lie to us would they?


4 posted on 02/03/2024 3:11:23 PM PST by rktman (Destroy America from within? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this💩? 🚫💉! 🇮🇱👍!)
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To: NetAddicted

Can we stop saying, “deep dive?”


5 posted on 02/03/2024 3:12:05 PM PST by HIDEK6 (God bless Donald Trump. )
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To: NetAddicted
In brief, things once again look good b/c prior periods were revised down;

This happened throughout the Obama Administration. Everything was always rosy and the top of the news cycle. Then, a couple of weeks later, revisons happen; and, always in a downward direction.

Biden watched Obama do it; and, he and his staff are doing the same. They can do this because they know that the "media" will never call them on it.

I am becoming more and more worried about the future of this country and what it will be like for my children.

6 posted on 02/03/2024 3:19:41 PM PST by LibertarianLiz
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To: NetAddicted

First off.. any numbers coming out of the Federal Government are pure BS, always have been and always will be until government is replaced with anyone but lawyers.

The covid numbers should have been the wake up call for anyone dumb enough not to know that before.


7 posted on 02/03/2024 3:23:26 PM PST by maddog55 (The only thing systemic in America is the left's hatred of it!)
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To: NetAddicted

Bottom line, the true numbers behind the job report are terrible, and the MSM is doing whatever they can to cover it up. I would even go so far to say that the true numbers of the unemployed are over 10%.


8 posted on 02/03/2024 3:23:41 PM PST by ducttape45 (Proverbs 14:34, "Righteousness exalteth a nation: but sin is a reproach to any people.")
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To: ducttape45

If that were the case, you wouldn’t have help desperately wanted all over the place.


9 posted on 02/03/2024 3:28:25 PM PST by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: napscoordinator

Why people apply for jobs if they’re still getting more money to stay home cuz of Covid?


10 posted on 02/03/2024 3:36:37 PM PST by ducttape45 (Proverbs 14:34, "Righteousness exalteth a nation: but sin is a reproach to any people.")
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To: NetAddicted

It’s even higher than the 7% rate, much higher. Look at labor participation rates. Lots of other tricks as well. I’d put the real number around 15-17%.


11 posted on 02/03/2024 3:41:43 PM PST by StolarStorm
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To: NetAddicted

Many folks have simply retired or no longer wish to work...so they don’t get counted...


12 posted on 02/03/2024 4:01:35 PM PST by Sacajaweau ( )
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To: ducttape45

I think that money dried up.


13 posted on 02/03/2024 6:17:09 PM PST by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: StolarStorm

Yes, easily that high. I expect even higher if you can filter out the jobs held by illegals.


14 posted on 02/03/2024 9:31:47 PM PST by curious7
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