Posted on 02/16/2024 6:43:18 PM PST by Widget Jr
Posted for the Martin Armstrong Ping List.
Dedicated to discussing and exposing the “Felon Forecaster” who spent a eleven years in prison for fraud.This is to critically evaluate and expose, not agree with what is written. Armstrong foes, friends, and the curious as what this is all about are welcome.
More information at Martin Armstrong Socrates Scam.
Argentina to Permit Provinces to Create Own Currencies
Posted Jan 18, 2024 By Martin Armstrong | 3 minute read
COMMENT: It is apparent that you are advising Argentinian President Javier Milei on economic theories. You said at the WEC that we would eventually see local currencies. If you are not informing him directly, they attended the WEC. He even warned about irresponsible provinces resulting in inflation. That is what you explained.
DA
REPLY: I am not at liberty to say who I have spoken with because we have to sign confidentiality agreements. As for attending the WEC, it is also confidential who attends. We are not like Davos, which shows off the politicians to attract others in hopes of meeting them. Because of the Israeli/Palestinian events, we had a surge in people coming to the site and to the WEC virtually because they wanted answers from our computer, which has a reputation of generally being correct and unbiased. After all, it is not a human opinion. The amount of people coming in was simply overwhelming,
That said, yes, I covered the fact that we would see local currencies emerge as they took place during the Great Depression and other times throughout history. This is a fascinating subject where some people have written and cataloged such forms of currency as in the Depression Script or the private money in Germany during the hyperinflation.
There are catalogs of what is called the Hard Times tokens (private money), especially during the Panic of 1837. I have been trying to assemble all the various times we have witnessed private and local money throughout history.
The first time I could identify private money in a financial crisis dates back to the Panic of 33AD, where there was a shortage of money, and we see an array of private money coined at that period in time to relieve the shortage precisely as we see during the Great Depression. I will publish a book on this aspect, bringing the various incidents together in one reference. As I have often said, history repeats because human nature never changes. People will respond the same way regardless of the century to the same set of circumstances.
During the Roman Empire, the emperor issued gold and silver, and the Senate issued bronze coinage. The provinces were also allowed to issue their own coinage in bronze, but some regions were allowed to strike in silver under the Greek monetary standard of drachms rather than a Roman denarius.
For example, Egypt struck its own coinage based on the Greek standard yet placed the image of the Roman emperor on the coin like that illustrated here with Nero (54-68AD). So, there is a historical precedent for both local and emergency currencies throughout the centuries.
The American colonies issued their own coin as well as paper money. The US Constitution strips them of the right to issue their own currency. When the US dollar was created, this was the exchange rate, and you can see that there was a significant disparity in the value of the various currencies of the colonies.
However, the Constitution did NOT outlaw private money. Therefore, during the Panic of 1837, we see a flood of private tokens appearing, which were, ironically, trusted more by the people than the paper money issued by the banks thanks to Andrew Jackson shutting down the central bank, which opened the door to every bank in the country issuing their own money, which became known as shinplasters.
The Fake Fan Email.
Armstrong starts off with the The Fan Email Confidence Trick, where he pretends to get fan mail and responds to it. Naturally, there is a lot of high praise and self congratulation. Its "obvious" Armstrong is advising Argentinian President Milei, because in his made up world, he has to be. He talks all to the movers and shakers, according to him. For all of his talk how everyone important knows and listens to him, no major news, no major policy centers, no one high up in economic and financial policy talks about Armstrong in their own words like he says they talk about him.
That is just the self congratulatory introduction. Next is the first major problem with this article.
The Non Existent, Non-Disclosure Agreements.
The first problem in this story is the implied claim in the title and in the fan email that Armstrong is advising Argentinian President Milei. He says he is, however there are Non Disclosure Agreements. Armstrong then proceeds to make it clear he is advising Milei to allow private money separate from the Argentinean treasury.
The problem of discussing the NDAs is immediately clear. If he has NDAs with Argentina, then giving out information compromising those NDAs breaches them. If there are no NDAs, Armstrong is lying.
Playing word games to break a NDA's confidentially, fiduciary responsibilities, trust, etc., will burn a person's professional reputation. As we know, Armstrong's reputation is the illusion he created.
To me, this is a interesting Armstrong post to take apart. He was a legitimate and successful coin collector. He has previously written about debt script, hard times tokens, and the use of private money before. Like many Central and South American nations, Argentina has had problems with high inflation. Between 2000 and 2004, private money was used in Argentina. Argentina's woes become a easy target for Armstrong to exploit for his own ends.
The NDA issue is the first problem, not the only one. There is what is happening in Argentina and Milei's policies, apart from Armstrong's claims about them. Next up and tied into Armstrong's unclearly stated thesis, is the history of private money in the US and how it ties into the thesis this article presents after looking at the facts.
What is Happening in Argentina, Anyway?
The governor and legislature of La Roija province have approved creation of a quasi-currency and pay 1/3 of their administration's salaries with it. This is not allowed under the Argentinean constitution. This affects Martin's historical argument about US currency and banking to back up his case. The other quasi-currencies or private money he talks about were legal, until they weren't, and have the same problems as national currency, on a smaller scale.
That said, here is the issue with Armstrong's claim about advising Milei is this:
Milei's Currency Policy Contradicts Armstrong.
In the real world Milei opposes the creation of private money and has stated the Argentinean government will not back it. From T.com, January 14, 2024:
"On Wednesday, his interior minister sent a letter to La Rioja’s government warning that issuing its own currency was illegal and could endanger future funding for the province."What Milei wrote on X.com (translated), January 16, 2024, https://twitter.com/jmilei/status/1747406573004099769?s=48&t=UuZrkhayGvvbZAjTLTdoOg :
"To think that during the campaign they treated me like a crazy person for postulating a scheme in which there was free currency competition and now they are promoting it...!!!"
"Welcome the provincial currencies to the competition, which, I want to point out, unlike what happened in the past, are in no way going to be rescued by the National Government."
"At the same time, the price they have with respect to parity will give a market evaluation of the quality of the Government that issues it...!!!
"Therefore:"
"LIVE THE COMPETITION"
"LONG LIVE FREEDOM""PS: do not forget that the Nation has had to face the correction of a deficit of 15% of the GDP, while all the provinces together add up to 1% of the GDP. With such an advantage, unless they are VERY BAD, they would have to be quoted far above par..."
Now, look at the timeline. On Jan 14, Milei's interior minister sent a letter to La Rioja's telling them the central government will not back private money. On Jan. 16, Milei tweeted his opposition to private money and stated the central government will not bail it out. On Jan, 18, Armstrong wrote his article, indirectly saying he is advising Milei ("It is apparent that you are advising Argentinian President Javier Milei on economic theories"), and that Milei is following through, on the opposite of Milei's publicly stated policy.
When someone lies this badly, why does anyone trust anything they say at all?
The Historian and Book Author Scams.
Scammers use "history repeats itself" the cherry pick to fit their narrative. This does tie in back to his claims about the use of private money historically. The also promote the books they have or will write.
"The first time I could identify private money in a financial crisis dates back to the Panic of 33AD, where there was a shortage of money, and we see an array of private money coined at that period in time to relieve the shortage precisely as we see during the Great Depression. I will publish a book on this aspect"Armstrong talks about the Panic of 33AD, as if he is a historian, instead of looking it up. The second trick he uses is writing a book about it. About Armstrong's Books on the Martin Armstrong Socrates Scam blog goes over his book writing and selling scheme. He has teams writing books for him and giving out positive reviews. Critics of his books point out that the titles are really click bait to get people to buy them, while the content people are buying the books to get isn't there. It is like buying a collection of Wikipedia articles.
The last point, is about his view of history of private money in the US, and how that ties in with the rest of his argument.
What is Armstrong's Thesis, if He Has One?
The article continues into the history of private money in the United States with this:
"The American colonies issued their own coin as well as paper money. The US Constitution strips them of the right to issue their own currency. When the US dollar was created, this was the exchange rate, and you can see that there was a significant disparity in the value of the various currencies of the colonies.""However, the Constitution did NOT outlaw private money."
Despite the Constitution's prohibition as written, states found ways to get around this, as there was no effective enforcement to stop it. For example, from the 1830s to the post Civil War period there was the "Free Bank Era". States could legally charter private banks. Effectively, the states printed money through the banks they chartered. At first there were lots of bankruptcies, bank notes becoming worthless, and localized depressions. The National Banking Acts of 1863 and 1864 ended all the state chartered banks and started the creation of the monetary policies the US now has.
Then there is the idea that states have the right to print their own currency and the Constitution took that away.Governments delegate authority within themselves, including printing and coining money. This is not a right automatically owned by provinces or states of a larger nation.
The implied thesis is, since US states had the right to print money until the Constitution took it away, and did so anyway until central banking was enforceable, Argentinian provinces have the same right despite their constitutions prohibition. Armstrong brings this up, fails to explain, justify, argue from it or defend it. This is his historical argument that is central to his claim Argentina should and is allowing La Roija to print its own private currency.
What's So Great About Private Money?
While Armstrong talks about private money, he ignores that it has he same problem of security, poor fiscal policy, corruption, and enforcement as any national currency. The history of money and banks in the US, and the use of private money in Argentina from 2000 to 2004 shows this. After the civil war, there were more reasons than centralizing power to have a central bank. Private and state chartered banks often failed. Its is hard to have a stable national economy when local, regional, provincial or state banks keep failing.
What Do We Get Out of All of This, If Anything?
Armstrong claims he advised Milei to follow through on allowing La Roija to print private money. The implied thesis is, La Roija province had the right to print its own money despite the constitutional prohibition, as Armstrong asserted US states had. Milei refused to allow this. In responses, Armstrong violated his NDAs by writing this article. Because this is how world class experts behave when those privileged to hear their advice reject it. Of course, this is assuming he is telling the truth, was advising Milei, and had NDAs.
The simpler explanation is Armstrong lied about advising Milei, then got caught up rationalizing his lies.
Besides being a bad liar, when someone puts this much effort into lying, why trust anything they say at all?
Comments, questions, informed critiques, angry ranting and raving?
Tear Collection Kits available at poster's expense.
More information at Martin Armstrong Socrates Scam.
OK... second time’s the charm since I am, shall we say "HTML coding challenged"? Taking Armstrong to task without writing a book on the history of US monetary policy or world depressions was a challenge, so I was brief there. This was a hard one to go over. Constructive criticisms are welcome.
You cannot have a single sovereign country without a central sovereign currency. This is a recipe for the breakup of Argentina.
Argentinian provinces have issued their own "quasi-currencies", both in 1985 and early 2000s (link). Issuing alternative currencies during a inflationary cycle, without security other than the hoping to force the central government into eventually buying it out, only perpetuates the problems the currencies were created to address.
Milei rejected alternative currencies or buying them out the week before Armstrong wrote this. Not only will what Armstrong (claims) he recommended will not work, he is pretending after the fact he was a key player he never was. He never advised Milei or the Argentinian government at all.
We could use a Javier Milei type in America.
Wow, that is a very good write up.
Thank you.
When Armstrong said US states had the right to print money until the Constitution took it away, that was harder to work through. I don't think he thought through the implications of what he was writing, and just trying to sound smart amd involved behind the scenes.
Pardon me for being pedantic, Armstrong is a convicted felon, barred from directly or indirectly working as a investment adviser by the SEC. His claim he is a world class economics adviser is all a fantasy he created as part of his financial advising scam.
John Smith's bank was the Kirtland Safety Society. It started January 1837 and collapsed in November of that year. It was a "Wildcat Bank", and didn't last because these banks had no real financial security and were often barter using unsecured paper money. This was during the Free Banking Era from 1837 to 1862.
TLDR, The history of US monetary policy had a lot of politics, favoritism, corruption of all kinds. After the Civil War the National Bank Acts of 1863 and 1864 finally created national banks.
(Not that any of the really important people in investing, fiscal or monetary policy care what the "felon forecaster" says.)
No one on the Armstrong threads posted to this forum, who agree with him or praises his forecasting accuracy, has come over to defend him.
Granted, breaching non-existent NDAs and the timeline of Milei's public statements are impossible to deny difficult to counter.
It would be nice to see those who agree with Armstrong try to defend him.
Is anyone willing to defend Armstrong's post where he claims he advised Milei (when he obviously did not)?
Please? Armstrong fans? Any takers?
Aww, come on man...
Those who post Armstrong articles, may or may not be an actual person, and seldom replies.
But has a cadre of fellow travelers to reinforce/echo the original post, followed by simple trolls stirring the pot.
And interestingly, they all claim to be conservatives that support Putin.
Most odd.
As to M. Armstrong, it is said that a sucker is born every minute.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
