Dr Ross is an astrophysicist. Perhaps what you have not plugged into your calculus is the very narrow window of conditions (and timing is a major factor) necessary for higher life forms to develop on a planet with rudimentary life on it, and to go to the level of contemplative life (intelligent seekers) is even more astonishing. It became popular to use statistics (the Drake equation), without applied science, and the notion that the odds are in favor of life popping up all over the universe was popularized. Applying science methods to 'false' the statistical vagaries leads to a very different set of conclusionsSo, statistics are okay to use as long as conclusion is that the odds of life are vanishingly low? I don't look to astrophysicists regarding the likelihood of life's arising. Nor did I bring it up.
The Cycle of Cosmic Catastrophes:
Flood, Fire, and Famine
in the History of Civilization
by Richard Firestone,
Allen West, and
Simon Warwick-Smith
http://creationontheweb.com/content/view/3004/
http://www.talkreason.org/articles/ross.cfm
http://www.reasons.org/about/staff/ross.shtml
Dr. Ross appears to have started with a survey of what must be the conditions and for how long in order that life arise and advance to the stage of intelligently surveying the universe around the planet upon which that intelligence arose. From one perspective, it is sort of like the Drake Equation was conceived for a box of "S" size, while ignoring that the "S" size was not constant. That box size dramatically effects the fundamental conditions required for a 'long enough quiet period' so that life evolves to the level of intelligence. Hey, the whole notion of intelligent life taking more than 500 million years to emerge may even be erroneous. It took that long on this planet, but can we apply the process fundamentals to other planets? We assume we can, for contemplation purposes. Given a consistency of temporal conditions (time is neither expanding or contracting), the changes to the universe, the environment, the biochemical processes, all these other variables were mostly ignored in the Drake Equation.