Posted on 10/08/2008 10:50:57 AM PDT by bcatwilly
We may lose this election, but I think we ought to demand some accountability of a "respected" polling outfit like Gallup. Allowing use of a registered voter poll to be trumped on CNN and Fox with a large Obama lead can deflate those on our side.
Call and/or e-mail Gallup and tell them to start posting a likely voter version NOW, and let the chips fall where they may. This is totally irresponsible to be reporting only a registered voter poll this late when NO other tracking polls are doing so and when you are supposedly such a respected polling outfit in such a closely watched election.
I called the phone number below and got a guy who was nice enough, but he seemed to think that Gallup was putting out likely voters, and of course I had to tell him that publicly on their site they are only reporting registered voters currently. And I mentioned that every other tracking poll is showing likely voters now, and I mentioned the fact that on their own web site they had an article detailing why likely voters are more accurate.
Phone: 1-877-242-5587
Web Contact: http://www.gallup.com/ContactUs/Default.aspx
E-mail: sarah_van_allen@gallup.com
Also remind Gallup that they were releasing LV polls in early September 2004 for that election. Why be different this election? (I know what the answer is - I want Gallup to answer the question).
That’s okay. Let the Obamabots (who for the most part are too lazy to get out of bed on election day) think they have this in the bag.
We all know otherwise. Even if we lose, it’s not going to be by more than 4%.
Done.
Thanks.
Done.
Found on NRO:
“After the debate last night, Middle Cheese was pretty gloomy. But I would note that the latest batch of polls this morning offer a bit of support for the “we’ve already hit bottom” theory. Obama’s lead in Rasmussen was 8 percent, now it’s 6 percent; Obama’s lead in Zogby was 3 percent, now it’s 2 percent; Obama’s lead in the Hotline was 2 percent and now it’s 1 percent; in the Battleground poll Obama’s lead has shrunk from 7 percent to 4 percent.”
I vote because it's my right to vote. Not because of what the polls say.
As far as being deflated well, life's tough. It's full of disappointment. It's also filled with lots of excitement and promise.
Just my 2 cents
Tell them to adjust their demographics and stop oversampling democrats.
Because just about every time Gallup releases a LV poll McCain is ahead. Their client the media doesn’t want that.
They’re too busy following the discussion thread on Dumpsterunderground that claims McCain and Palin are ‘inciting violence against Obama.’ A related thread says that if Obama goes into the election with a 5 point lead and loses, blacks will and should burn-down the country in ‘justifiable black rage.’
Do not waste your time or energy. What they want is to deflate conservatives.
The worst part of what they do isn’t the LV vs RV’s the real problem is they are over sampling democrats by as many as 10 points over republicans. Thereby giving the inflated numbers for O.
If anything tell them to stop over sampling democrats.
Agree 100% with you, as I and most on FreeRepublic.com will have no problem trying to keep that Marxist from taking control of the country. BUT there are plenty of people unlike us who can be swayed by falsely inflated poll numbers unfortunately.
Sadly, you're correct.
Done.
I say let them exaggerate all they want - maybe it will keep all the Dems newly registered voters on their couches on election day
Let us now take a moment to remember another election.
Pens and Polls in Nicaragua: An Analysis of the 1990 Preelection Surveys, by Katherine Bischoping and Howard Schuman © 1992 Midwest Political Science Association.
Abstract
In order to understand the problems of interpreting political surveys in highly polarized societies, we analyze the results of 17 preelection polls carried out during the three months preceding the 1990 Nicaraguan election. We also draw on findings from a survey-based experiment on response bias administered in the last days of the election campaign. Both sets of data are used to explore five hypotheses that might account for the large inconsistencies between many of the preelection surveys and the actual election results: the volatility of the Nicaraguan electorate; serious problems in sampling a developing country in turmoil; effects of the administration or context of questions; intentional partisan bias on the part of polling organizations; and response effects due to the partisanship of the polls as perceived by the Nicaraguan population. Our analysis indicates that the main explanation for the failure of some polls and the success of others lies in an unusual interaction between respondents’ vote intentions and the perceived partisanship of a poll. Paradoxically, bias on the part of a survey organization was necessary to reduce bias on the part of respondents.
LLS
The election will vilify or validate Gallup. I am betting that Gallup will have egg on their faeces. The pollsters will make themselves irrelevant after this election..
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