Posted on 12/25/2009 12:29:03 AM PST by myknowledge
Russia announced that arms exports for 2009 would be $8.5 billion. That's less than two percent more than last year's $8.35 billion. This is not good. Increasing these sales is very important for the government. The defense industry employs nearly three million people and accounts for about 20 percent of industrial jobs in Russia. At the end of the Cold War in 1991, defense work was more than three times as large as it is now. It was the large size of the defense industry that played a major role in bankrupting the Soviet Union. The Russians were never quite sure (cost accounting not being a communist favorite) what proportion of their GDP was devoted to military spending, but it is estimated that it was over 20 percent. That was more than four times figure for Western nations.
Russia exported $8 billion worth of weapons in 2007, and two years before that there were hopes that sales might reach $10 billion for 2008. The sudden fall in Russian arms sales comes from problems with the two largest customers; China and India. Russian arms exports had been growing rapidly for a while. In 2005 Russian arms exporters had already booked orders for six billion dollars worth of sales per year through 2008. In 2004, Russian arms sales were $5.6 billion, and that went to $6 billion in 2005 and $7 billion in 2006. Russian arms sales were only $4.3 billion in 2003, and ballooned as the economies of their two biggest customers (India and China) grew larger. That, and the escalating price of oil (driven largely by increased demand from China and India), has sent international arms sales from $29 billion in 2003, to over $60 billion now. Oil rich countries, particularly those in the Persian Gulf, as eager to buy more weapons, with which to defend their assets.
The United States and Russia are the largest exporters of weapons, together accounting for about 70 percent of world sales. Traditionally, the U.S. sold nearly three times as much as Russia, and that ratio seems to be holding. There is more effort by the Russians to not just sell on price, but also on service and warranties. Most of the cost of a new weapon comes during the lifetime (often a decade or more) of use. In the past, Russia had a bad reputation for support, and lost a lot of those "after-market" sales of maintenance services and spare parts. The U.S. was much better in that respect, but much more expensive. Now the Russians not only have the price advantage (often half, or less, the cost of equivalent American weapons), but an improving reputation for providing good service. The Russians are also selling more high tech, and expensive, warships. For many years, warplanes comprised about two thirds of Russian sales, but now, about half the sales were for warships.
Over the last decade, about 40 percent of Russian arms exports went to China. But that is now at risk, as Russian manufacturers feud with the Chinese over stolen technology. The Chinese have been quite brazen of late, as they copy Russian military equipment, and then produce their own versions without paying for the technology. Worse, the Chinese are now offering to export these copies. The Russians are trying to work out licensing deals with the Chinese, with limited success. The Chinese say their generals are angry over how Russia sells technology to potential Chinese enemies, like India. The Russians don't understand that, as they have been selling weapons to India for decades. Russia fears that the Chinese have just decided that they don't need to buy Russian technology, or equipment, any more, and can just steal what they need.
Then again, all this could just be a lot of posturing, as the Chinese negotiate to get the best deal they can for Russian military technology. It is cheaper to build under license, because that way you get technical assistance from the developer of the technology.
India is unhappy with Russian sloppiness in handling large projects, like refurbishing an decommissioned Cold War era carrier. This project has been a financial disaster for India. Worse yet, India is buying more Western (Israeli, European and American) weapons, and notes the differences in performance and service.
If Russia cannot change a lot of old habits real quick, their flourishing arms export business is going to slide back into the cellar.
But I wonder where Russia would find more potential customers? Latin America? Africa maybe? Perhaps the Middle East?
Wow, that's a pretty surprising percentage. It does make me wonder what the percentage is in the US now given that the US is one of the largest exporter of military equipment.
Obamao and the dhims will decide that they can claim to be shrinking the deficit by buying the less expensive Russian versions of armaments...
I think it would be good strategy to indeed buy Russian made military hardware, in some respects quantity has its own quality.
It would not be too difficult to take an inexpensive Russian tank of a generation or two past like the T-72 and convert it to remote control, same for certain aircraft.
Well, Russians are still selling their junk and keeping Russian citizens employed. Someone is doing something right.
India's indigenous MBT, the Arjun, has entered service with the Indian Army, and is superior to the T-90 in terms of firepower, FC systems and survivability (because it was designed along the lines of current generation Western MBTs). The Indian army babus preferred the T-90 (export model) anyway because they get the monetary kickbacks from it.
One particularly nasty disadvantage of previous and current generation Soviet / Russian MBTs is the tendency of the turret to be blown clear of the hull if a satchel charge is detonated directly beneath it, because the ammo is stored in the gunner's room instead of a separate sealed compartment.
as a former tanker that is the foirst time i have heard of the turrt (or fighting compartment in a non turret tank destroyer (ww2)) referred to as the gunner’s room.
many a penetrating round into the fighting compartment of a russian tank will set off the on board ammo and blow the turret off.i was in m60a2 missle tanks in the 70’s and we had combustable cartridge ammunition in the tirret. it was protected by asbestos sleeves but still.
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