I’ve personally never demeaned the Spanish or Portugese maritime adventures. They were true explorers. As much as the presence of the islands should lend itself to discovery, the distance involved suggests that the Spanish were not so lucky. Hawaii is about 2500 miles from Acupulco and maybe another 3,000 miles from Manilla. That’s a lot of food and water to carry. If they knew about Hawaii, it makes sense that they would establish a base there. It would allow the ships to carry less rations, which would allow them to carry more goods. The islands would be a shelter from storms in the South Pacific and a source of food and fresh water.
It sure does. That's why I lean toward the "bad luck" scenario. If sailing westward from Mexico on the prevailing easterlies for 150 years, it would be just plain bad luck to miss the Hawaiian Islands entirely!