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Well, I think the point is that those counties are where a lot of campaign stops have been made.

As for whether they are bellwethers or not, some are some aren’t

I’ll go county by county that they name.

Clark NV is only actually carried GOP in landslides but it’s where 70% of people in the state live so obviously that’s where the candidates go.

Hamilton Ohio (Cincy and burbs), Obama twice, Bush twice, close to statewide %s in last 2 elections. So yeah, probably will go for the winner.

Prince William VA has trending badly, Seems like when Republicans do well (win or come close) it’s only slightly more rat than the state but when rats win easily they have good margins here. Obama beat Romney 57%-41%, no improvement from 2008. Important state to took look at, Trump wins the state if he’s carrying it, if he’s getting creamed, that’s bad.

Hillsborough (Fort L) and Pinellas (St. Pete) FL, Obama twice, Bush in 2004, split in 2000 (Bush H, Gore P). Obama ran ahead of his statewide % both times. I agree this is the biggest battleground in the state since the Orlando area and Miami-Dade have trended rat. Dem for Governor last 2 times (Crist is an area native, also carried P over Rubio in 2010). Trump at least needs to come close to winning them, I would think. St. Lucie is another FL county to watch, there was some weird fraud there in 2012 IIRC

Wisconsin, Brown (Green Bay), Winnebago (Oshkosh) and Racine. Brown leans GOP, any Republican doing respectable (45%+ let’s say, the 2004 Senate nominee got 44% and lost it) is gonna carry it. Romney did, McCain did not. Winnebago and Racine voted for Bush in 2004 and 2000 as he narrowly lost the state due to fraud both times. I’d guess Trump and Johnson would carry both if they win.

Bremer, IA, Obama twice, Bush twice, Ernst for Senate. I figure any winning Republican likely carries this but it’s too small to be good bellwether I think, I can see dems winning statewide without it.

Hillsborough Township NH! There’s a Hillsborough County, and Hillsborough TOWN (subdivision of a county in New England) in that County. No TownSHIP. Township means unincorporated little populated. The town voted Obama by 10 points in 2012, went Bush in 2004 when he lost. The county voted for Obama by a hair in 2012, any Republican winner needs to be carrying the county.

Wake County NC (Raleigh), Bush only narrowly won it in 2004, bigger margin in 2000, Dole narrowly won it. Almost 57% Obama in 2008, 55% in 2012. It’s trending the wrong way, more dem than the state now. Shill will carry it unless Black turnout is even lower than I hope.

Bernalillo NM (Albq), More dem than the state, Bush didn’t win it, only Gopers winning easily will win. But it’s the most populous county so of course that’s where the candidates go.

PA, Lackawanna (Scranton) is heavily rat, only Philly county is worse. Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) is closer, rat leaning. Hasn’t gone GOP for Prez since 1988 when Bush I won it by a nose. Corbett (former GOP Gov) carried it in 2010, Toomey lost it by a nose. Trump probably has the state if he carries it or loses it only by a little.

Chester has been trending the wrong way but is still more GOP than the state, went Obama 08, rat gov in 2014 and Rendell twice, big for Rendell (ahead of his statewide %), I can tell you a Chicago Mayor would not carry DuPage County IL if he ran for Governor. Romney only lost Bucks by a hair, he did a little better than Bush. A Republican winning statewide will have both.