Posted on 03/14/2012 3:58:38 AM PDT by God-fear-republican
MATHEMATICALLY MR. ROMNEY CANNOT CLAIM THE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE OUTRIGHT (Vanity)
After March 13, after Alabama and Miss., Romney gets total of 391 bound delegates and he needs 1,144 for nomination. So he still needs 1,144 – 391 = 753 bound delegates.
About 100 bound delegates of Florida and Arizona that Romney “won” will be challenged and will be re-allocated proportionally by CD or will be unbound, so his number will be reduced even further.
In the remaining elections, I consider the following states which traditionally more conservative and growing weary of Romney’s electability, the bound delegates probably will be allocated 3 ways overall equally. They are Ark ( 33), Ind (27), Ken (42), Loui (18), WV (28), Wis (42), Missou ( 49), Neb (32), NC ( 52), SDa ( 25), TX (152).
So Romney is projected to get 1/3 of 500 = 166 bound delegates.
He will get all 40 bound delegates from Utah. Total = 166 + 40 = 206 bound delegates.
That bring the total bound delegates he needs to win to get out-right nominated is 753-206 = 547 bound delegates.
And the remaining “moderate” states with their delegates are Cali (169), Conn ( 25), Del (17), DC ( 16), Haw (17), Ill (54), Mary ( 37), NJ ( 50), NM (20), NY (92), Ore (25), Puer ( 20), RI ( 16), with total of 558 bound delegates.
So he has to win 547 out of available 558 bound delegates!!! (Did I do my math correctly?)
I believe we will have a brokered convention because the following reasons:
1.The establishment realize they get damaged good in Romney with dwindling electability especially in conservative states.
2.Ron Paul positions himself to win a bunch of unbound delegates in the second round voting as he stacks caucus delegates with his supporters.
3.Newt and Santorum factors.
My last contribution as I wait till national convention. It has been fun!
MR. GINGRICH, NO NEED TO GET OUT!
YOU NEED TO STAY TO MOP UP. I AGREE WITH YOU, YOU ARE THE ONLY ONE WHO CAN RESCUE US!!!
The ‘establishment’ thinks that the south does not matter - those states will go R regardless. They think that mitt can win in ‘contested’ states.
Your caps-lock key is stuck.
FYI
I pray that Sarah will save us all... Because what else is there to hope for, really?
“Did I do my math correctly?”
No.
There are still 1360 delegates to be allocated in the remaining races.
This means that Romney needs to win 47.79% of the remaining delegates, Santorum needs 65.66% and Newt needs 74.48%.
Technically, all three can still win the nomination. This thing will only be decided when the winner-take-all states begin to vote in April.
there are 2286 total delegates
The Green Papers has him with 382 hard and 481 soft, with 1329 delegates yet to be awarded, and it appears there are 7 truly uncommitted delegates.
So 99 legally uncommitted delegates have committed to Romney. He needs about 1/2 the remaining delegates to get a majority of the soft count — very doable, even likely.
Now yes those unoommitteds can change allegiance if one of the other candidates makes a convincing case. It’s going to be easier to do that if Santorum is beating Romney 65-30 instead of 35-30.
CA - winner take all per CD (159) plus 10 WTA statewide.
TX - proportional (152) plus 3 party officials.
NY - winner take all per CD (58) plus 34 statewide.
50% statewide gets all 34, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold.
PA - delegates with the highest vote totals win (59).
13 seats for party insiders. All are legally uncommitted.
IL - same as PA but it’s 54 + 15.
NC - I’m guessing “accurately reflecting the division of votes in the statewide primary” means proportional - 52 plus 3 for party officials.
NJ - WTA plus 3 for party officials.
MO - complicated - delegates chosen at CD (24) and state (25) conventions - Santorum may have an advantage since he won the primary to get the ball rolling here.
IN - WTA by CD (27) plus 16 at state convention plus 3 party officials.
LA - proportional with a 25% threshold (20) plus 26 party insiders.
KY - WTA by CD (18) plus 24 proportional statewide (15% threshold) plus 3 party insiders.
WI - WTA by CD (24) plus 15 statewide WTA plus 3 officials.
More later.
I heard this very attitude conveyed by a guest on Bill Bennett’s radio show after the 6:30am time slot this morning.....”Meh...we’ll win the south anyway”..mentality. It INFURIATED ME!! If enough conservatives, maybe only 5 to 7% vote to DEEP SIX Romney(third party vote) in the general election, they WILL NOT WIN....PERIOD. If Romney is the nominee, it’s just Obamalite, and America is finished anway.
(Dn-Dw)/Dr = (delegates needed - delegates won)/delegates remaining = % of remaining delegates needed.
There are 1358 delegates remaining (Dr) and 1144 (Dn) required for a majority.
Romney has 495 (Dw), needs 47.8%
Santorum has 252, needs 65.7%
Gingrich has 131, needs 74.6%.
If Gingrich instructed all his delegates to vote for Santorum (or vice versa), they would have a combined total of 383 and need to win 56% of all remaining delegates.
Confirmed delegate wins overnight were 43 for Romney or 41.7%, 36 for Santorum or 35%, 24 for Gingrich or 23.3%.
you got it rigth but the simpler fact is that Romney needs to win ALL the remaining states by 50% to take it outrigth
As it stands today, he does NOT have it in the bag- we are going to a brokered convention
It looks like a brokered convention to me too. Once that happens all bets are off but it is going to be tough to go from the convention in late August to the election in early November. Ten weeks isn’t long enough to fight Obama’s billion dollar super pac ads.
How the hell someone picked Romney as inevitable I just don’t know. Someone screwed this up big time.
I agree with Rush. The ‘establishment’ does not care about the WH. They want Congress, so they will control the money - that we don’t have. I don’t want mitt because I do not trust him to repeal ocare. O-care must be repealed or the country is lost, I am afraid.
I am not worried about the 3-month short campaign season as it works to our advantage. Obama is losing ground daily, we don’t need to campaign. Plus, to Newt, 3-month is long enough for him to destroy anyone, not alone Obama who has to speak through a teleprompter. He might have a problem to rebut Newt during a debate because he does not comprehend what Newt says quickly enough. Talking about debate, they become more weighty in the short campaign season.
Just rising gas price is enough.
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