At this time, they also are not producing enough naval aircraft. This is a result of the change in production from the Kate to the Judy, and as a result no torpedo strike aircraft are being produced. The Japanese flattops at Midway will not have full air complements, in part due to the fact that they just don’t have the planes. And many of the planes they do have are past their useful lives.
The Japanese seriously underestimated the attrition of warfare in trained pilots, trained crews, planes and ships. They entered the war with the best of all of them, but had no plans to replace them.
I think they assumed, wishfully [except for Yamamoto, Homma, Kuribayashi and a few others], that the U.S., Britain et al, would throw it in after the initial victories. Bad judgment on their part.
My belief is reinforced by the fact that after Japan achieved her initial objectives,no further strategic plans were ready to go. Midway, Coral Sea, etc show Japan thrashing around in a strategic muddle that always winds up with “the decisive battle” Bad way to run an airline, so to speak.