RE: All of what you say is true, but it’s anecdotal, and you are simply not going to understand the law of large numbers if you stay buried in anecdotal evidence.
OK, what does the law of large numbers tell us? Can you show me such studies using large numbers?
The burden of proof is on you here actually - because the first law of large numbers shown was that hiring managers apparently believe this. The second thing you ignore is an honest assessment of human nature. The third thing you do is assign a cockamamie motive for these folks hiring who they hire, somehow thinking that business is so easy these days that some kind of perverted agenda can be adhered to in hiring policy.