<>7.5 hours @ 390mph and 3675 miles<>
should be: 490mph — 7.5 x 490 = 3675
The southern tip of the 0:11 Inmarsat arc where Inmarsat said the plane would have crashed after running out of fuel is about S32E95.
That’s 1933 miles south of the 20:11 @ S4E94 point and in order to reach it the plane would have had to fly at about 485mph for the last 4 hours in order to reach it by 0:11.
So they were saying that the plane was capable of flying 3667 miles [1784+1933]and another 65 miles [8 minutes until 0:19] for a total of 3732 miles from KLA and then ran out of fuel and crashed way down south there — but then changed their mind to a slower speed as they moved to the new search area.
The coastline of Australia at Exmouth is only 3613 miles from KLA as the MH370 flies. So it could have landed there with 100 miles to spare if the Inmarsat arc is incorrect.
What we know and conclude from what we know:
16:41 departs KLA N2.73E101.71 to Beijing
17:19 the pilot signs off and then ACARS and transponder turned off
17:21 the plane turns after 318 miles at waypoint IGARI N6.94E103.58 and heads west toward Penang Island, where the pilot grew up and regularly visits
The plane goes from 35000ft to maximum altitude for 20 minutes and then down to 12000ft and as low as 5000ft as it flies over Malaysia
Plane flies 229 miles to Penang Island N5.67E100.50 where it drops low enough for cellphone onboard to connect with a cell tower and then turns northwest to a point above Banda Aceh N5.55E95.31 outside Indonesian radar
18:03 Log On request from ground control reaches the plane notifying pilot that ground control was on to him and may even know where he is
At 18:29 and 334 miles from Penang Island and an estimated position N7.5E96, in order to avoid being tracked which he thinks is now may be happening, the pilot turns plane abruptly and probably prematurely SSW, which incidentally is toward the satellite’s geostationary position resulting in a noticeable frequency burst
To this point the plane has flown 881 miles [318 + 229 + 334] over 1:48 hours averaging 489.4mph
At 19:40 after 1:11 hours and 569 miles @ 485mph in that direction the plane would be ~@ S0.5E94
At 20:11 after another 0:31 minutes and 251 miles SSW the plane reaches its most easterly position S4.0E93 — 1701 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251]
This is the point of decision:
1]Proceeding further south is suicide — nothing is there and water is cold and survival after landing a plane in those waters is not likely. 484.5mph for 4 hours and 1938 miles puts the plane on the final Inmarsat Arc at 0:11 and S32E95. Total flight distance 3639 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251 + 1938] averaging 485mph start to finish.
Since the family members say that the pilot was not suicidal he probably did not fly the plane here but just wanted anyone tracking him to think that this is where he was headed to end it all
The claim that the plane ran out of fuel is bogus as it had enough fuel to fly for 7.5 to 8 hours @ 500+mph or 3750+ to 4000+ miles
The claim that the plane ran out of fuel because it flew much faster than first thought at the beginning is bogus since Malaysia and Inmarsat both knew from the start that the plane was covering about 485 miles per hour from the time it turned around and even Inmarsat’s 0:11 arc is based on that speed being consistent from start to finish
2]Proceeding SE from its 20:11 position the plane had enough fuel to reach western Australia [Exmouth S21.93E114.12] within 4 hours @ 470 mph which is only 1879 miles SE taking him through the search area. Total miles to Australia would have been 3580 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251 + 1879]
3]Proceeding ESE from its 20:11 position the pilot, who spent most of the last year 2013 practicing extreme landings, could ditch the plane in those disputed territorial waters between Indonesia’s territorial waters south of Bandung Indonesia S6.92E107.6 and Australia’s territorial waters just east of Christmas Island S10.46E105.58 knowing that neither country would likely look there in that grey area of disputed waters
The pilot could have reached those warm smoothe friendly deep waters just off Java, let’s say S10.46E107.6, where he would rendezvous with the person he reached or tried to reach by cellphone over Penang Island, at 0:11 after 1094 miles cruising in at 273.5 mph over the final 4 hours and then heading by boat to shore for morning My Thais before anyone in Malaysia even knew that the plane had been hijacked. Total mileage 2795 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251]
The reason that the Malaysians and Aussies don’t want to search there is politics and economics — searching and/or finding the plane there would involve the Indonesians complicating jurisdictional matters and finding the plane’s black boxes too soon before insurance/lawsuits are settled would drive up the cost of those settlements.