That’s really an interesting take, and I hope it is true. I hear a repeated refrain that fracked oil wells peak and output diminishes quickly after 2 to 4 years. It made sense economically with oil above $110 per barrel, but not at half that. That’s what I hear from one side, and they claim to have the well-life data to back it up.
And Venezuela needs $110 per barrel oil for its government to stay afloat. Persistent costs below that rate and it is coup time. So I really hope you are right.
Viva la Revolucion!
Many companies are now involved in the business of obtaining oil and gas from shale. Their expertise and interest is not going to simply disappear. The technology that has contributed to the cost-benefits of obtaining this shale oil is not going to go away. In fact, the technology is continuing to advance and lower the cost per well further. There is continuing effort to do the fracking with air/gas instead of water. If that can be mastered (I probably ought to have used “When” instead of “If”) the cost and political resistance will plummet.
There is no turning back... and we know that there is on the order of 100+ years of shale oil already known available in the US, and even more gas. By the next century, it is likely that other advances will make it unnecessary to worry about getting to all that oil.
In any event, the current technology places a severe cap on the price that any monopoly will be able to demand for oil in the forseeable future.