A good example of building a model is one that perfectly fits the historical data of the Stock Market. Trust me, give me enough parameters and I can build an equation (* See Note Below) that maps to the DJ Industrial average with in an inch over that past 50 years. Essentially a perfect fit.
The question is: How good is that model when it comes to telling where the market will be a year from now.
The answer is: About as good as your best guess. Maybe not quite that good.
* Note Below: OK, I confess I couldn’t actually build that equation but I could have at one time and that all that counts. ;)
You’re comparing apples and oranges:
The stock market doesn’t influence the climate.
The climate influences the stock market.
The stock market isn’t primarily based on physics.
Climate is based on physics.
The stock market relies on human nature.
The climate is nature.