Posted on 04/15/2016 7:52:36 PM PDT by writer33
Florida was a closed primary also, and Trump over performed his polls there. He was at 43% in the RCP poll average for FL, but ended up receiving 45.8% of the vote, so he was underpolled by almost 3%, even though there were reports of Independents complaining that Trump wasn’t on their ballots. Arizona was also a closed primary, and Trump got 9.1% of the vote higher than his poll average.
In fact, if you actually look at the Real Clear Politics poll averages for each state, Trump has typically received slightly higher percentages of the actual vote than he polls at (i.e. he is typically underpolled, though not as much as Cruz has been). I’ve checked each state, and this has been true of the vast majority of the contests so far.
The only poll on RCP that has him under 50% (at 49%) has 14% undecided and the poll itself noted that many of the undecided were leaning toward Trump. In other words, in effect Trump is over 50% in all 15 of the last 15 NY polls. His RCP average is 53.4% at the moment. Considering the tendency to underpoll him a tad, that would suggest he should receive around 55% statewide if nothing changes over the next few days.
He may very well do that. This just suggests there’s a possibility that it could happen that way. Nothing more and nothing more should be read into it.
I will point out that the largest difference for those paying attention between Trump’s home state and Cruz’s home state is a largely reduced number of people on the ballot.
And Kasich is hurting Trump more here than Cruz is.
Yes, this is a propaganda article.
Seems like there are a few people here who love to post anti-Trump propaganda articles.
I don’t mind anti-Trump material if it’s credible - haven’t seen much along those lines though.
But but but Trump has a ceiling of 35%....or was that a ceiling of 40%....oh well, the pundits say he can’t win, and they will do everything they can to make themselves right.
Absolutely, mark Levin has destroyed overnight any good he did over a period of years. He is ready for mattawan post haste.
You may stumble upon a bear and the bear may not attack. Highly unlikely, but it may happen.
I wonder if you are watching a man deteriorate so greatly,so fast,and not feel like some have helped him go off the deep end by not leveling with him. I remember when Levin had serious heart issues,they don’t go away,and this mad,Looney, raving,and anger cannot be good for him. I cannot listen to him,he just sounds nuts.
I’m voting for Trump right after working overnight and getting breakfast.
Keeping a bat in the car in case anyone tries to stop me.
But not likely on staten island :)
We’ll deliver him a ton of votes.
Be careful. Use legal means to accomplish your goal.
I don’t want you to get in trouble and obtain a record.
It’s a crime to prevent you from voting and the police should respond.
Kick butt in the poll booth.
Can’t wait until my turn.
With the potential exception of a few specific congressional districts, I certainly agree with that. Cruz should actually be thankful that Kasich is remaining in the race--at least until April 26.
That has a real potential to be true in Connecticut too, in particular. Trump is leading by double digits in all five CT congressional districts, which are each winner-take-all. However, from what I've read, the remaining 13 statewide delegates are proportional, unless someone gets over 50%. In the latest CT poll, Trump was right at 50%. If he ends up with only 48 or 49% in CT, it will likely be due to Kasich, who is polling much better than Cruz in the state. In that scenario, Trump would only receive 6 statewide delegates, instead of all 13. Those lost 7 delegates could come back to haunt him potentially. I think this is perhaps why he was in Hartford, CT tonight, just a few days before the NY primary.
ok. I promise to use legal means up until the generals.
But If Trump loses, get back to me on that.
| Discrict | Representative |
|---|---|
| 7th | Nydia Velázquez (D-Brooklyn/Queens) |
| 9th | Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn) |
| 10th | Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan) |
| 12th | Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) |
| 13th | Charlie Rangel (D-Manhattan) |
Interesting that YOU made your return after your 2 year hiatus.
You like to post only during election years.
WHY is that?
Cruz Review
Cruz has the lunatic fringe vote down.
In a five man race - Cruz, Trump, Kasich, Rubio, Carson. The totals I saw added “other” after those names so it was at least a five man race.
WHY not?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.