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Another thing to consider is that polling may be overstating Trump’s support. In state after state, Trump’s support among registered Republicans has been lower than among Independents.

Yuge problem for a general election.

1 posted on 04/15/2016 7:52:36 PM PDT by writer33
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To: writer33

When his own kids admit they cannot vote for him you know things are going to be off for these results


2 posted on 04/15/2016 7:58:53 PM PDT by lonestar67 (Trump is anti-conservative / Cruz 2016)
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To: writer33

Not likely Con Review.


3 posted on 04/15/2016 7:58:53 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: writer33

The only way Trump comes in under 50% is with Diebold machines. There is absolutely no way New York goes with one of those other clowns for any level of support above 15%.


4 posted on 04/15/2016 7:59:42 PM PDT by Kenny (e)
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To: writer33

So you’re telling me there’s a chance.


5 posted on 04/15/2016 8:00:06 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: writer33
there is also a chance, and not a far-fetched one that Trump will finish with under 50 percent of the vote. If that happens, it will signal a seismic shift in the race for the Republican nomination.

Heck, I thought Wisconsin was a seismic shift. Now the Trump bashers are trying to conjure up another one. Guess the Wisconsin seismic shift didn't have much staying power based on some recent polls. Or maybe it was just media and GOPe and Trump basher BS and nothing more.

6 posted on 04/15/2016 8:00:10 PM PDT by Will88
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To: writer33

LOL, and if he does he’ll be now worse that Cruz.

Another McNothin article filled with conjecture.

This is par for the course every few days before another primary or caucus.


7 posted on 04/15/2016 8:00:24 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Hey Ted, why are you taking one for the RNC/GOPe team, and not ours? Not that we don't know.)
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To: writer33

Conservative Review = Mark Levin = But wait! There’s more! Buy our web show for one year and you get two BRAND NEW SPATULAS!


8 posted on 04/15/2016 8:01:43 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it." --Samuel Clemens)
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To: writer33

Another piece of horsecrap from the CR edited and approved by Mark Levin who is currently suffering from severe tds.


9 posted on 04/15/2016 8:02:34 PM PDT by conservative98
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To: writer33
The Optimus NY district breakdown implies a delegate count of:
Trump-75 - Kasich-18 - Cruz-02


11 posted on 04/15/2016 8:05:51 PM PDT by Mensius
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To: writer33

“There is a very real possibility that hundreds of thousands of Trump fans will show up to the polls on Tuesday and be turned away, because they are not registered Republicans.” I can totally see this happening and then the bellyaching begins.


12 posted on 04/15/2016 8:05:53 PM PDT by Savage Rider
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To: writer33

Cuckservative Review? I think the Huffington Post is more fair to Trump at this point.


13 posted on 04/15/2016 8:06:33 PM PDT by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: writer33

Conservative Review = Mark Levin = Crap


14 posted on 04/15/2016 8:09:18 PM PDT by stratboy
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To: writer33

a nice hyrid of BS, wishful thinking, and agitprop


16 posted on 04/15/2016 8:12:46 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: writer33

Oh no! Trump might get only twice as many votes as Ted in NY. He will be finished.

17 posted on 04/15/2016 8:13:12 PM PDT by fireman15 (The USA will be toast if the Democrats are able to take the Presidency in 2016)
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To: writer33

Cruz only got 43% of the vote in Texas


18 posted on 04/15/2016 8:13:48 PM PDT by silverleaf (Age takes a toll: Please have exact change)
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To: writer33

Such bull. It was AOK that Cruz failed but if trump does it’s onver. The establishment is so in bed with Cruz.


19 posted on 04/15/2016 8:13:55 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: writer33

Florida was a closed primary also, and Trump over performed his polls there. He was at 43% in the RCP poll average for FL, but ended up receiving 45.8% of the vote, so he was underpolled by almost 3%, even though there were reports of Independents complaining that Trump wasn’t on their ballots. Arizona was also a closed primary, and Trump got 9.1% of the vote higher than his poll average.

In fact, if you actually look at the Real Clear Politics poll averages for each state, Trump has typically received slightly higher percentages of the actual vote than he polls at (i.e. he is typically underpolled, though not as much as Cruz has been). I’ve checked each state, and this has been true of the vast majority of the contests so far.

The only poll on RCP that has him under 50% (at 49%) has 14% undecided and the poll itself noted that many of the undecided were leaning toward Trump. In other words, in effect Trump is over 50% in all 15 of the last 15 NY polls. His RCP average is 53.4% at the moment. Considering the tendency to underpoll him a tad, that would suggest he should receive around 55% statewide if nothing changes over the next few days.


21 posted on 04/15/2016 8:17:30 PM PDT by FenwickBabbitt
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To: writer33

Yes, this is a propaganda article.


23 posted on 04/15/2016 8:21:47 PM PDT by VitacoreVision
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To: writer33

But but but Trump has a ceiling of 35%....or was that a ceiling of 40%....oh well, the pundits say he can’t win, and they will do everything they can to make themselves right.


25 posted on 04/15/2016 8:35:34 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.......)
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To: writer33

You may stumble upon a bear and the bear may not attack. Highly unlikely, but it may happen.


27 posted on 04/15/2016 8:42:44 PM PDT by Robert DeLong (u)
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