(Vanity) The Mitt Romney Doomsday Scenario

[kvanbrunt2]

there are state-level dates coming up, >>> i saw a table posted here that has president only tickets out to july-august. parties much before that.

[GLDNGUN]

We already know that Romney does not cut into the liberal vote. He will cut into Trump’s vote so that NEITHER of them win the states that Trump is supposed to get while Clinton wins all of those she is supposed to get.

IOW, the ONLY beneficiary of this plan is Hillary Clinton.

Agreed that those who think Romney would take votes from the democrat are wrong. It could turn a Trump near landslide into a very close race. Trump has a chance to win many states that Romney lost in 2012; however, if there's a 3rd-party candidate like Romney pulling votes away from Trump, that could flip some of those states back to the democrats.

[catnipman]

“he sceanio is no winning the third party but denying the two a 270 then going to congress. where the lackies are the delegates now. the electoral college already voted and this would be after dec 14 when they vote.”:

it’s still fantasy.

[niki]

I will close with this, the time is now to send the weak, the puny and the flaccid “hill inhabitants” back home, many with ill gotten gains!

Else, we...

Agree.

[Behind the Blue Wall]

Nobody’s going to be believe that Trump is going to win states that Romney lost in 2012, but then lose states that Romney won.

[GLDNGUN]

So who would win Utah?

[Behind the Blue Wall]

Again, it doesn’t matter. Even if you assume Romney won half of the states that he won in 2012, if neither he nor Trump won any Obama states, Hillary would walk away with a majority of the delegates, end of story. So in order for this to work, you have to somehow assume that Trump or Romney will take several states from Hillary splitting the GOP vote that Romney was not able to win alone. There’s just no way that could happen.

[GLDNGUN]

Again, who would win Utah?

[Behind the Blue Wall]

Dunno, but for the sake of argument, I’ll give you that Romney will win Utah.

[GLDNGUN]

Ok, so Mormon Romney carries heavily-Mormon Utah. That would I think be the expected result; however, I don’t that means Trump couldn’t carry any states that Obama nearly lost in 2012 such as Florida, Ohio and/or Virginia.

[Behind the Blue Wall]

I understand the argument, but I don’t see how it’s remotely possible for Trump to win an Obama swing state against Hillary with Romney on the ballot. He not only has to make up the difference by which Romney lost to Obama, but he would also have to add to that however many votes he loses to Romney.

To put it into numbers, let’s say Obama beat Romney 5 million to 4 million in State X. For Trump to win, he would need to first convert half a million Obama voters and/or add 1 million new voters (or combination thereof). Then let’s say Romney keeps half of his 2012 voters against Trump. Now Trump had to add to the above, another million converted Obama voters and/or add another 2 million new voters (or combination thereof). That’s to win the election by 1 vote.

That just doesn’t seem possible. Bottom line is that for a three way race to go to the House of Representatives, either Trump or Romney needs to win some major Obama swing states, and for either one on their own, that’s a tall order, but with both of them on the ballot splitting the anti-Hillary vote? Impossible.

[GLDNGUN]

It might seem "impossible" now but Trump may be headed for a landslide. In the spring of 1980 had someone predicted Reagan would win in a landslide, they would have been called crazy. If someone predicted a Reagan landslide even with another Republican running as an independent and thus splitting the anti-Carter vote, they probably would have qualified for a mental health evaluation, yet that is exactly what happened.

So maybe without Romney, Trump would be headed for a comfortable electoral win, but maybe with Romney he loses some swing states he would have otherwise to deny him a majority but not enough to give the Democrat a majority.

[Behind the Blue Wall]

Possible just exceedingly unlikely but then you’re right, not only 1980, but the Trump phenomenon has made fools out of a lot of people betting against exceedingly unlikely outcomes!