Posted on 07/28/2016 7:55:26 AM PDT by Gamecock
COLUMBIA Asked about the odds of Hillary Clinton winning South Carolina in this falls presidential election, Clemson University political scientist David Woodard replied: Its more realistic that well be invaded by Martians.
South Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in four decades, and pundits do not expect that streak to end in November.
Even Democrats acknowledge Clintons chances of beating GOP nominee Donald Trump in the Palmetto State are slim. But as Clinton celebrates her presidential nomination in Philadelphia, some within the party hold out hope she could pull off a historic upset.
She has a chance, S.C. Democratic Party chair Jaime Harrison said. Its definitely not a slam dunk, but she definitely has a chance. (President Barack) Obama got 45 percent here in 2008 and 44 in 2012, and that was without the national party putting a lot of effort into South Carolina.
Former S.C. Democratic chair Dick Harpootlian said Clintons odds improved to improbable from impossible with her selection of U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate and the GOPs nomination of controversial real estate mogul Trump.
Kaine is a Southern, moderate gun-owner who checks all the boxes on the kind of Democrat that South Carolinians can vote for, Harpootlian said, adding some Republicans who cant stomach Trump likely will stay home and not vote on Nov. 8.
But political scientists and pollsters do not like Clintons S.C. chances.
I dont expect (Clintons campaign is) going to have much of a game plan at all to win in South Carolina, said Scott Buchanan, a political scientist at The Citadel. Theres just simply not enough Democratic votes or independent votes here.
Clinton is already well known and largely disliked by many in the S.C. electorate, said Clemsons Woodard, a sometimes GOP consultant. They would probably rather drink poison than vote for her.
The analytical website FiveThirtyEight projects Trump is eight points ahead of Clinton in South Carolina and gives the real estate mogul an 83.6 percent chance of winning the states nine electoral votes.
Those figures are up after last weeks GOP convention, where Clintons name regularly was dragged through the mud.
A Trump win in November would be par for the course in a state that last voted for a Democrat in 1976, when most of the South picked former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter over then-President Gerald Ford, a Michigan Republican.
GOP presidential candidates have carried South Carolina in 12 of the past 13 general elections since white Southerners mass migration to the Republican Party during the civil rights movement.
Breaking the link between white voters and the GOP is key to Democrats efforts to win back the state, but it is too tall a task for this election year, according to state Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter, D-Orangeburg, who chairs the Democratic National Committees Southern caucus.
Weve lost white voters, so weve got to figure out how to get white South Carolinians to understand that Democrats are not what they have been told we are, said Cobb-Hunter. Its amazing to me that people who are struggling believe that Republicans have the answer for their struggles.
Even if Clinton cant win South Carolina, her Palmetto State campaign could prove valuable to Democratic party-building in the state, which Republicans have dominated for nearly two decades. Democrats running for county, state and congressional seats will benefit if Clinton mobilizes enough S.C. voters to keep the state race close, Cobb-Hunter and others say.
While President Barack Obamas 2008 and 2012 campaigns failed to target Palmetto State voters for mailers or television ads, Cobb-Hunter and state party chair Harrison want the national party and Clinton campaign to make a strong effort in South Carolina.
Harrison said the Clinton campaign responded positively to a letter that he and other Southern Democratic operatives wrote, asking for the nominee to commit to a Southern strategy.
That commitment could include money, campaign stops from high-profile Clinton backers, such as the Obamas, or high-tech campaign efforts like microtargeting, Democrats say.
Its too tough a hill to climb to expect a Clinton victory in 2016, Cobb-Hunter said. But if you can close the margin, itll help everyone down the ballot.
Ping
Clinton will carry S Carolina? “The Onion”
Haven’t voted for anyone in Decades. Will vote against Her Heinous this November.
Dick is a dick and not a smart one.. everybody in SC knows it
Right now.......Trump wins these states, Florida, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Viirginia, and, all the red states....and, the election!!! End of story!!!
With a name like Cobb-Hunter, she was probably very popular at fraternity parties.
He won’t win ‘rat infested VA . Too much DC Koolaid ...
Watch "Hillary Clinton: A Career Criminal" on YouTubehttps://youtu.be/kypl1MYuKDY (19.46 min)
More pipe dreams...
While they’re at it, the Martians can abduct Linda.
South Carolina Ping
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SC is one of, if not the, reddest states. One of the reasons I moved here.
IMHO, the RATS would be foolish to spend very much money in SC. The chances of Killary winning here are slim and none.
I had to listen to countless hours of that woman’s rantings on my shifts of Statehouse Live or Today years ago.
Probably not this time. However, SC does seem to becoming increasingly yankeefied.
The only time we South Carolinians vote Democrat is to get rid of a RINO who pissed us off with their spineless ways.
For instance the Republican David Beasley, who made the mistake of PROPOSING to take down the Confederate flag from the State Capitol building, was replaced by Democrat Jim Hodges. Hodges, of course, fought to have the flag taken down, but was cornered into putting it on the Confederate Memorial. He was quickly jettisoned after one term, since we had elected him simply to warm the Governor’s seat until a decent Republican candidate came along.
If you can call any politician decent, that is.
Yankee: Why can’t youse guys stop it widdah Civil War crap?
SC native: WHY CAN’T Y’ALL STOP INVADING?
If she could win the Palmetto it would be pointless anyway because she would be winning every other state.
Unforunately you are right. When I went to Navy boot at San Diego in ‘62 people from places like Detroit, NYC etc. looked pityingly at me when I said South Carolina. Now they’re all trying to move here. I liked it better when they stayed up North and looked down on us poor rebels. The worst part is those who come down here and then talk about how great things were in the place they left to come here as they do their utmost to turn South Carolina into New Jersey.
We used to ride around and drink beer and tip the can to any highway patrolman we met but now you can’t fart without breaking a law. It is amazing how many idiots in this state actually DID vote for Obama. The great grandchildren of people who would have starved rather than accept charity now whine that the government is not doing enough for them.
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