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I think the chances are lower, but a repeat of the Carrington event (September 1859) in this high-wired tech civilization would knock us for a loop. We should have plans in all advanced nations, that would bring back the grid as fast as possible in this eventuality.

How they got to their probability number is a bit baffling to me. A major solar flare event would likely happen near the peak of an active solar cycle. We are currently in the dying phases of a rather weak solar cycle that peaked in 2012 and 2013. The next peak is unlikely to be very strong according to those who research these things, and not due until perhaps 2023-2025.

My guess would be that solar flares will be weak and not very frequent between now and then. Even the next peak provides no greater opportunities than any of the past several. We survived very strong peaks in 1947 and 1957, and strong ones again in 1979 and 1989. The worst thing that happened in all of that period was a moderate flare event that knocked out the grid in Quebec in March 1989. That was disruptive but not catastrophic.

We have no way of predicting when this mega-flare will take place. The 1860 peak (as it is identified) that was associated with the Carrington event was not a particularly strong one but one of a series of rather average peaks in the mid-19th century. Why it happened then and not any other time is unknown and perhaps unknowable.

We would have a warning of a day or so, and could presumably shut down some of the grid to prevent it from shorting out (something that happened on a smaller scale after the Carrington event around 1919 IIRC). Technology was not very advanced then but it knocked out telegraph service in much of the U.S. for days.

With things like this, probability numbers are meaningless and useless. The bottom line is, this could happen and we know it could happen. Since we can’t predict it, we would be stupid and short-sighted to ignore the risk. And there are probably things that could be done in terms of advanced planning and creation of back-up resources (in well positioned locations). It would still be a huge dislocation event, but perhaps not as catastrophic, if a plan was available. I don’t think a plan is available today. This is something Trump can probably work on over the next few years. He needs to find the right experts to advise not on when, but how we recover. The when part is unknowable and there is no point in wasting time speculating about that.