Posted on 01/05/2017 1:48:46 PM PST by BenLurkin
Using their hypothesis — that a zombie has a 90 per cent chance of turning a human into a zombie once it has found said human, and that a zombie could find at least one human a day — they predicted how long the population could hold out using the SIR model, an epidemiological model that describes the spread of a disease throughout a population.
Using the model, they split the population into three categories; the susceptible population (S), zombie (Z) and dead (D).
The lifespan of a zombie, they worked out, goes thus: S,Z,D. Natural birth and death rates did not feature in the working, as 100 days as the zombie epidemic took place over 100 days, which meant the natural births and deaths were negligible compared to the zombie virus.
The model works out how much infected humans come into contact with non-infected humans, and how likely it is one will spread the disease to the other.
Human survival rates were pitiful, with only a tiny amount of the population alive over the duration of the zombie apocalypse.
In a more hopeful follow-up study, students worked out humans could prolong the survival of the species by killing off zombies and having babies in the nightmare scenario.
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
It make statistical analysis fun.
Yep, me too. They're the ones who leave their grocery carts sideways, blocking the entire aisle.
I am Legend
I was posting the list as you pinged me.
Had to dust it off, first.
“In their model, for instance, they did not account for humans killing zombies.”
huh. I would say that is a flawed model.
It depends what kind of zombie. I always thought the dumb/slow zombie apocalypse was very unlikely. You watch these shows and the zombies always outnumber the humans. In the early stages of such an “apocalypse”, the humans would outnumber the zombies by thousands to one. And the humans would be armed to the teeth.
But I also believe you’d have people who try to hide loved ones that have turned — that would prolong the outbreak.
The “28 Days Later” scenario is the most worrisome, but also the most unlikely.
Sad but true!
LOL!!!!!....Anyway,My compadres and I are quite prepared for the Democratic Apocalypse!
I took a course in mathematical epidemiology in the 80’s, and we used seir/d models. My professor was a genius, and it was a fun course. We used parameters from real diseases, and some of the results were pandemic in nature. I see nothing wrong with students having fun studying a zombie outbreak, I will be teaching a graduate math course based on the Kerbal Space Program (KSP) game. I like to make learning fun.
50 next year. But saw it on our local PBS once. It’s on Youtube and its a hoot
Farm equipment. Check out swathers, power rakes, combines and corn choppers. But they would be prone to clogging based upon the decay of the bodies. Fresh zombies would be more likely to clog versus a zombie that is several months along in the decay process.
A zombie outbreak would be self-limiting due to the effects of maggots, scavengers, and carrion eaters. Zombies would be nothing but bones inside of 6 weeks and incapable of movement long before that.
Ever notice in these stories that it’s always the other guys who are the gang of violent criminals.
Women and minorities hardest hit.
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