Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response

U.S. Naval Institute ^ | October 19, 2017 | Carla E. Humud, Christopher M. Blanchard, Mary Beth D. Nikitin

[Retain Mike]

Since late 2015, Syrian president Asad and his government have leveraged military, financial, and diplomatic support from Russia and Iran to improve and consolidate the Syrian government’s position relative to the range of antigovernment insurgents arrayed against them. These insurgents include members of the Islamic State, Islamist and secular fighters, and Al Qaeda-linked networks in Syria. While Islamic State forces have lost territory to the Syrian government, to Turkey-backed Syrian opposition groups and to U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish and Arab fighters since early 2016, they remain capable and dangerous. The IS “capital” at the Syrian provincial capital of Raqqah has been isolated and is being liberated, but large areas of eastern Syria remain under the group’s control. The presence and activities of Russian military forces and Iranian personnel in Syria create complications for U.S. officials and military planners, and raise the prospect of inadvertent confrontation inside Syria with possible regional or global implications.

[Navy Patriot]

The presence and power in Syria of armed groups directly opposed to the governance models promoted by many Syrians and the United States suggests that the conflict could persist after any negotiated settlement seeking to replace the current Assad led government with a government of national unity or other inclusive formulation.

Political opposition coalitions active internationally appear to lack grassroots support and, because of their lack of material control over the most powerful armed groups, they appear to lack the ability to guarantee security commitments that might presumably be part of a negotiated settlement.

So continuing the Obama "Arab Spring" policy and pushing "Regime Change" to remove Assad will garner us:

1) World War III, or

2) Continued Islamic Terrorist War in the Middle East to Determine which Terrorist Muslims command the new World Caliphate.

Choose wisely.

[Texas Fossil]

Thanks for the post.

Very current and well done map of Syria on page 6. It is interesting that Turkey is lumped in with all the other Islamist/Jihadi groups trying to overthrow Assad.

Will take some time and study the narrative later.

[Retain Mike]

It seems to me that right now Russia is the only one that can come out on top in this cluster of factions. However, winning political influence doesn’t look like much of prize.

[Retain Mike]

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[Sam Gamgee]

How about GTFOOT - get the $*&^ out of there.

[Retain Mike]

Looks like they need to send out the rules of engagement by twitter to answer the question, “Who the h#)) do I shoot at this week?”