Jim’s Offense vs. Defense Matchups and Analysis
Sunday, Jan 21, 2018 (all times Mountain)
AFC: #3 Jacksonville at #1 New England 1:05 pm CBS, Gillette Stadium
Overall rank scoring rank ydg rank
#1 N.E. Offense #2: 3 Pass 11 Run
#3 Jags Defense #2: 1 Pass 23 Run subttls
#3 Jags Offense #5: 13 Pass 7 Run
#1 N.E Defense #5: 25 Pass 30 Run subttls
N.E. outranks the Jags 1 to 3 in net (overall) scoring strength, the definitive stat for team rankings and favorites. But on offense and defense scoring N.E. and the Jags are equally matched. The best part of the game will be when N.E. has the ball. On offense, of course N.E. shines as the #2 scoring offense, especially with Brady’s air attack ranked #3 in yardage. However, the Jags #2 scoring defense is #1 against passing yardage and should cause problems for Brady’s passing attack, slowing it down and possibly causing some turnovers and interceptions. N.E.’s best chance on offense appears to be their #11 running game against the Jags #23 run defense. But this is N.E. in the playoffs and that usually adds up to a lot of passing. That could turn to the Jags favor.
In beating N.E.’s offense and Brady, L,TOWM (on FreeRepublic.com) has pointed out that, “The Giants showed (twice) what the blueprint is for beating Brady’s bunch and Coach Marrone tried to implement that a few times in Buffalo...Now he has the players to pull it off.” Check out the link to read a good article about this very thing. https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-jaguars-are-a-giant-threat-to-the-patriots-1516132540
The Jags #5 scoring offense is matched by N.E.’s #5 scoring defense. However, in yardage, the Jags offense have an overwhelming advantage mainly in the run, but also in the pass. The N.E. defense appears to allow a lot of yards midfield, but gets stingy in the red zone. The Jags should mostly run, but again, this is the playoffs where teams tend to pass a lot EVEN if, like the Jags, the team’s best offensive weapon in the matchup is to mostly run the ball.
This should be a very entertaining game and could be a very close game. I think the Jags have a chance. But N.E.’s decisive #1 NFL net scoring stat puts them as the favorite. Winner: N.E.
NFC: #2 Minnesota at #1 Philadelphia 6:40 pm FOX, Lincoln Financial Field
Overall rank scoring rank ydg rank
#1 Philly Offense #3: 14 Pass 3 Run
#5 Vikes Defense #1 1 Pass 5 Run subttls
#5 Vikes Offense #10: 11 Pass 22 Run
#1 Philly Defense #4: 3 Pass 6 Run subttls
Philly outranks the Vikes 1 to 5 in net (overall) scoring strength, the definitive stat for team rankings and favorites. The best part of the game will be when Philly has the ball. Philly’s strong #3 scoring offense will have its hands full with the Vikes’ #1 scoring defense. Philly’s pass attack is a mediocre #14, hampered because their injured starting QB has been sidelined. The Vikes are tied with the Jags as the #1 pass defense in the NFL. If Philly tries to pass too much, they could lose to the Vikes on turnovers, interceptions and possibly some defensive TD’s. Philly’s best offense bet is their strong #3 running game against the Vikes’ strong #5 running defense. Again, the mindset, “pass if you’re in the playoffs” could hurt Philly because their strength and best matchup against the Vikes, is to run.
The Vikes’ lukewarm #10 scoring offense will have problems with Philly’s strong #4 scoring defense in both the pass and the run. The Vikes should probably pass more than run, but they’ll have to be careful not to turn the ball over or allow interceptions against Philly’s tough #3 pass defense.
This will be a defense battle extraordinaire. It should be a low-scoring but entertaining game. Winner: Eagles.
NFC: #5 Minnesota at #1 Philadelphia
I still feel the same.
A Jack/Minn matchup would REALLY punish the NFL but will also give them a convenient fig leaf to explain the inevitable reduced SB viewership.
A(n) NE loss might also suggest to Brady that it is time to hang ‘em up while he has some semblance of health. I have seen interviews with *many* NFL QBs who say that they have been in pain pretty much all their lives since their retirement.