Posted on 05/04/2018 9:37:18 PM PDT by TBP
An inside look at how the 143rd Kentucky Derby will shape up:
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Who are you picking? If you haven't decided yet, perhaps this will help.
(Does anyone understand the so-called "Dosage" system?)
https://nypost.com/2018/05/04/kentucky-derby-betting-guide-field-odds-and-the-winner-is-2/
Rooting for Magnum Moon - a Missouri owner.
My son is placing my bets tomorrow morning at the sports book.
Justify,
Promises Fulfilled
and Noble Indy.
Win, place and show on all.
Trifecta in that order I think, still working on that.
5,6,7,11,14 box exacta $2. Total bet $120
11
If you want your horse to win the Triple Crown, give him a name that starts with A (Assault, Affirmed, American pharaoh) or S (Sir Barton, Secretariat, Seattle Slew.) That covers half the Triple Crown winners.
Two had names starting with C (Count Fleet, Citation) and two with W (War Admiral, Whirlaway.) Taht’s another four.
Combined, those 4 letters begin the names of 10 of teh 12 Triple Crown winners.
Cangialosi (the Post writer) is picking Audible. He certainly looks like one to consider.
“5. Audible (8-1)
Current form: Pletcher’s stalker has made all the right calls winning four in a row. Rallied from 8 lengths back before opening of 3 of his own in the Florida Derby.
Worth a wager? Florida Derby winners Nyquist/Always Dreaming took the Roses last two years. Pedigree concerns raise red flags, but Castellano came off Bolt d’Oro to ride here. Good call. Winner.”
Magnum Moon will finish somewhere mid-pack.
Could be, he doesn’t have a good position at 16.
JUSTIFY doesn’t seem to know how to win anywhere but on the lead-—he will be WAY more heavily bet than any other entrant, yet the consensus of DRF ‘experts” gives him just a slight edge over horses like Mendelssohn, Audible, and Good Magic. I don’t like any of those...a couple of real overlooked longshots are Flameaway (my win pick),My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso (my second win pick who m ight drop down considerably below his 12-1 Morning Line. I will make lots of superfecta bets involving 9,10,4,11, and 12....with JUSTIFY mixed in there 2nd 3rd or 4th.I will post my exact picks Saturday late morn/early aftern oon.
I’ve noticed that the favorite rarely wins.
Derby
the favorite has won the last 5 years in a row
Mendelssohn won’t be the odds favorite but that’s who I like
Good Magic.
The audiobook company Audible notes a horse by that name is competing. If Audible wins, members get a free audiobook I believe.
Audible hopes you have enjoyed this program.
Good Magic at 12-1 all day long. Looks like a very sloppy day.
Spike Jones “William Tell Overture”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BavRrRNvz8g
It’s a beautiful day for the race
Stooge Hand is the favorite today
Assault is in there
Dog Biscuit is 3 to 1
Safety Pin has been scratched
Ya ya
And at 20 to 1 ... Beetlebomb
Now the horses are approaching the starting gate
And there they go!!
And it’s Stooge Hand going to the front
Cabbage is second on the rail
Beautiful Linda is third by a length
And ... Beetlebomb
Around the first turn
Stooge Hand is still in front
Cabbage is second by a head
Cabbage by a head
Beautiful Linda is third
And ... Beetlebomb
Into the back stretch
Dog Biscuit is now leading the pack
Lady Evelyn is second, very close
Banana is coming up through the bunch
Banana coming up through the bunch
And ... Beetlebomb
At the half
Stooge Hand still out in front
Assault is passing Battery
Assault and Battery
Notary Sojac is fourth
And in last place by 10 lengths
I believe it is, yes it is ...
Beetlebomb
Around the turn heading for home
It’s Stooge Hand and Dog Biscuit
And Girdle in the stretch
Flying Sylvester is third
And Mother-In-Law nagging in the rear
Oh oh oh
And now they come down to the wire
And it’s number one
And now number two
And it’s very close
There’ll need to be a photo finish
Or an oil painting
And now Louis leads with a left
And Louis is in there slugging
And it’s a battle
And now they’re tearing hair
There’s hair all over the ring
There’s hair all over the place
I don’t know whose hair it is, ah ah
It’s mine
And there goes the winner ...
INSTRUMENTAL
Beetlebomb
great odds for a horse of this quality...Jose Ortiz is the best rider in the world right now...plus hes got a great post. I put 100 smackers on him yesterday.
ive been to 3 Kentucky Derbies in person....everyone should go to at least one Derby ...it is really something.
And here comes Beetle Bomb!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.