EVERYONE makes O-2 from O-1. It’s a paper drill. Look at Nidal Hassan. He made O-4 from O-2 despite being goo-goo-eyed nuts and having a greeting card calling himself a soldier of allah. In my Reserve squadron we had a guy passed-over for O-3 and thus tossed-out of the Regular Navy. Not a top performer.
Everyone does not make 1LT or CPT, but the selection rates are very high. An officer not promoted to Major must resign, Majors and above can stay to retirement.