There will no doubt be some interesting things coming, but in the shorter term, the real change is going to be a reversion from the utopian millenial bullcrap that has infected tech. Fantasy land about self driving cars, self driving flying cars, pretend battery tech, solar powered everything that isn’t heavily subsidized, etc...all of these things are going to crash head on into the wall of reality.
I know I just triggered some here by saying the self driving cars aren’t going to happen, but the fact remains that they cannot function in the existing road environment and would necessitate a complete ban on human drivers to function properly. Maybe someday, but that day ain’t soon.
Just take a look at how we have developed an effective model for car insurance in this country. I drive a car, I carry insurance, I screw up, I pay. So, now you’re going to take all that liability and put it on 5-10 companies who will now be responsible for every blip and every accident? That isn’t even close to feasible and again would require a complete upheaval of existing norms to a level that is simply too much for society to stomach. Maybe someday, but surely not soon.
I think the automatic self driving cars which could be called autocars or, heh heh, automobiles, are being introduced in a stealth fashion with all the new sensor operated features in the high end car. You can’t tell me there won’t be a full autopilot within the next five years.
YEP.
Now, if drone tech continues to increase I can see it becoming "flying cars" as that would be much easier to control en mass that cars driving on the surface.
With the extra dimension of vertical elevation controlled "lanes" would be much more direct to various parts of town and lower level "feeder" air lanes would get you to a controlled grid of lanes that would set you down into parking lot sized group landing pads where you "park" and walk to your work or store.
Longer range travel time would be cut into about half as a car like drone would probably do about 80-100 mph and take direct routes to a destination.
Battery powered vehicles would only be for surface use, the airborne drones would probably use a jet turbine generator to power the four vertical lift electric motor props and perhaps CNG for a pusher engine to provide faster horizontal speed.
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One thing to say that autonavigated vehicles are not now, and perhaps may never be, perfectly safe. But the true issue is, “Compared to what? The “what” is like ten 9/11s worth of deaths - and a similar toll of injuries - yearly. What, we accept that because we’re used to it - and we don’t dare risk a change of paradigm? Never??? Not buying it.That change of paradigm might include additional electronic traffic control infrastructure to augment the “driver” electronics we think of now. Think about it this way: airline passenger fatalities used to be pretty horrific, but with black boxes and voice recorders and relentless investigations by safety officials airline fatalities are pretty rare these days. It would be child’s play to put black boxes in all new automobiles which would - especially in self-driving cars - result in rapid advances in safety.
At some point in the next five years or so, the correct decision will be to bite the bullet and promote that approach, and hope that fatalities initially stay level or even drop. But even if they go up, you relentlessly pursue enhancements in safety which can be implemented (especially but not necessarily exclusively in self-driving vehicles) and stay the course. The fatalities drop below what initially existed without self-drivers, and keep on dropping thereafter. And traffic fatalities finally start to drop down the list of causes of injuries/deaths.
Making the transition will save other (unpredictable and unknowable even after the fact) lives. It will also cost certain (unpredictable a priori but painfully concrete after the fact) lives. Is that a reason to continue to accept ten 9/11s on our roads annually into the indefinite future when we have a choice?
Exactly so.
I live in the Seattle area. They've been building a light rail line. The first section went through the 'hood, ML King Way.
Upon starting service they experienced a lot of train/vehicle collisions. As I said, it was the 'hood...and some of the locals didn't accept the fact, I guess, that the train wasn't going to stop when they turned in front of it...even though the signs said not to. Racis, you know.
I'd like to see the software to deal with that mentality.