Posted on 07/25/2018 10:59:01 AM PDT by pabianice
I am betting that POTUS works to have charges brought against several democrats just before the mid-terms. That would be a sweet October surprise.
Sabato è un commentatore falso.
A couple of Freepers posted that Sabato predicted Cagle would win the Georgia runoff......
Kemp won by 38.8%
Having fifty-eight US Senators for the GOP would be yuge. It would lessen the voices of people like Romney and Collins.
That was the biggest blowout I ever saw in Georgia. I proudly voted for Kemp.
Very low turn-out in GA Dem District 6 run-off.
In 2017 Jon Ossoff got 124,893 votes against Karen Handel.
Yesterday the total Dem vote in District 6 was 26,588.
Theoretically their process should work well, as they take a “poll of polls” which should theoretically eliminate outliers in the polling.
But if they are determined to show that Democrats are poised to do very well in the elections, people can twist the data to show that too.
Same here. I voted for Kemp at 6:30pm....
and then took a relaxing 30 minute walk before I got in the car to go home.
That’s a whole lot closer to reality than the predictions of a massive “Blue Wave” we were hearing preached from every major media outlet for the last 6 months...
But yes - I just don’t see it being that close, barring some massive “October Surprise”. The vast majority of Americans across party affiliation are better off than they were pre-Trump. Yes - our Congress still sucks. Yes, they (GOP) are idiots who have let the MINORITY party of Marxists have what they want far too often... But most are still better off today.
Realclearpolitics had George H.W. Bush beating Bill Clinton by a mile.
Virtually ALL the tossups went to Clinton, and leaning Bush went to Clinton.
Realclearpolitics SUCKS. It averages in very old polls and dubious polls with a few legitimate polls.
IT IS WORTHLESS!
Quinnipiac, among others(Reuters), always skews the RCP results way left
There was an Axios/Survey Monkey poll a couple of weeks ago showing Marsha Blackburn up 14 that wasn’t included in the polls that were averaged at RCP. Thus, RCP still has Tennessee as a toss up.
It was an Axios/Survey Monkey showing her up 14 and, conveniently, it was excluded from the average of polls at RCP.
The evangelical Christians who stayed home in 2016 because they didn’t believe Trump’s would not keep his promises regarding religious liberty and appointing pro-life Justices to the Supreme Court will votes in far larger numbers.
RCP Average: 7/15 - 7/22 51.3 - 37.3 Kemp +14.0
Kemp won by 36 points (22 points better then they predicted). Enough said.
“It would lessen the voices of people like Romney and Collins.”
Romney will be loud supporting Trump if things are going well ... and taking credit for it too. Romney will be extremely loud knifing Trump in the back if *anything* goes less than optimally. That meme with Mitt as a used car salesman sums him up perfectly. He makes John Frigging Kerry (did you know he served in Vietnam) jealous with his flip-flopping skills.
Collins would be silenced though ... once it’s clear that McCain is truly gone and a decent margin exists on the R side, she’ll behave more like a quiet version of Lindsey Graham (who seems to be more for Trump than against him, but he also faces reelection in 2020 IIRC).
The conservative news site Tennessee Star reported on that poll, but here is what they said about it:
“The methodology used by Axios-Survey Monkey differs from that of standard polling. First, it was conducted over a longer period of time, covering three weeks beginning June 11 and ending July 2. Second, instead of using live or automated phone calls to land line and cell phones, the Axios/Survey Monkey Poll is primarily online.”
In the Tenn situation...there’s around 10-to-12 percent undecided, and that’s OK for July timeframe. In public news, Bredesen is often conveyed to the general voters as a ‘moderate’ Democrat. Whether that works or not....is another thing. I think if Trump shows up once or twice in September for some public speech....it’ll help Blackburn.
Aren’t they the ones who amalgamate a select group of polls and then average them out? If you have a couple of kook polls, it’ll skew.
2016 was all we need to know about polls.
People worry about Demonrats and media surprises in October? They pulled that deal on Trump with the Access Hollywood tape in October 2016 and it burned them. All this Trump hate in the media is only energizing that vote they didn’t see or want to see in the last election.
“Translation—Democrats are burnt toast.”
Another translation : Dems need money, badly.
Everything the media spews is “close” ... it makes them money and idiots will throw good money away on Democratic candidates.
The Dems will gain two seats in PA ... possibly 3 ... that’s thanks to the stealth, judicial tyranny redistricting plan they snuck through. Outside of that, I can’t see them gaining much more ... certainly not enough to flip control.
If there is a “blue wave”, it’ll make the House very close, but they’ll still fall short.
If the Dems neglect the Senate (and they really seem to be doing that), they could suffer catastrophic damage there :-). They’re not doing well cash wise despite media reports of them raking in the dough in the midwest (keep in mind a lot of that cash paid for Primaries).
I don’t want to paint a perfect picture since things can and will go wrong, but the media painting this doom and gloom picture for Trump is ridiculous.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.