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To: CondoleezzaProtege
Anything's possible, and China and Russia are Venezuela's two top creditors. That said, it won't be simply a matter of starting to pump out the oil that those two countries are already owed, because if the Venezuelans could do that with their present infrastructure they would be. Extracting that debt from the ground would require a substantial additional investment even to begin, and if that investment is more than it would cost to purchase an equal amount of oil on the open market, it's a net loser. That's what the Chinese and Russian bean-counters are looking at.

Clearly, however, it's going to require a substantial foreign investment from somewhere to get Venezuela on the road to recovery. What that will require is a new regime with credibility enough to attract not just Chinese and Russian money, but money from investors all over the world, including non-oil companies the Chavez/Maduro machine have already ripped off; this will require confidence that they aren't going to get ripped off again. Anything short of that won't do, and there are roads to build and electrical grids to rebuild and hydroelectric generators to repair, none of which the Russians and Chinese are going to bring to the table.

Moreover, pre-empting existing creditors within the oil market may have long-lasting effects on China's and Russia's participation in it. For example, China at the table with, say, BP, negotiating a trade deal and BP says yeah, by the way, we're going to need a little premium on top of that price to replace our assets that you have - take it or leave it. And the other oil companies all say the same thing. It isn't an embargo, but it is business.

16 posted on 08/16/2018 3:36:30 PM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: Billthedrill

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Venezuelas-Oil-Meltdown-Defies-Belief.html

You’re right about foreign investors. I’m thinking France’s Total. They are one of the few oil majors that have the scale and resources to turn things around, and so far they’ve stuck it out.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-total/oil-major-totals-ceo-says-will-not-give-up-on-venezuela-idUSKBN1HQ109


19 posted on 08/16/2018 3:52:02 PM PDT by ameribbean expat (Socialism is like a nude beach - - sounds great til you actually get there. -- David Burge.)
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