Former Cruz Spokesman: 'It's Possible' O'Rourke Could Win

The Hill ^ | September 09, 2018

[HamiltonJay]

This is the reality in TX...

APATHY by the conservative voter... they have won so often for so long they just expect it, and its going to bit them in the arse...

less than 40% turnout in the last presidential election... The TX GOP better get its GOTV efforts to fight that apathy, or TX will wake up to a surprise statewide loss in the near future.

I don’t think it will be this one.. but who knows.. its definitely coming without something changing

[sailor76]

TX isn’t about to go blue.
=============

When was the last time you were there?

[HamiltonJay]

June...

Read the whole post. TX risk of a statewide blue wind in Apathy.

It keeps having 40% turnouts the. Yes the energized blue will win.

Not because the majority of Texans are liberal but because the majority of Texans aren’t voting

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

PING!

I donated to Cruz through SCF. What is Tyler doing?

[SmokingJoe]

Yes, because the opinion of voters in NC, GA and FL have any bearing on how he’s going to do in TX.... (rolling eyes).

You don’t win a massive 551 electoral votes against probably the best field of GOP Primary candidates ever assembled if you are a “miserable not charismatic campaigner”. You just don’t. Don’t matter if it’s in NC,GA, FL or TX.

I expect Cruz to win when all is said and done, but I also expect that Cruz’s margin of victory will be far less than it should be.

The primaries are your friend. With Ted Cruz pulling in 300,000 more votes than all three Democratic Party candidates combined, and over TWICE as many votes as O’ Rourke did in the primaries, I think see the elections being that close at all. And the GOP race wasn’t even competitive (Ted Cruz got over 85% of the vote) so there really was no need for a high turnout.

Xcnmlkoo

[gibsonguy]

How much help/hurt is the GOPe providing? We know they hate Cruz. Would they actually help this worthless little leftist? From what I hear Beto is getting massive help from somewhere. Social Media even flooding cell phones with texts. Looks like Soros is all in on this punk.

[SmokingJoe]

Where were all these energized “blue wave voters” during the primaries then? Ted Cruz alone got more votes than all the US Senate Democratic voters combined, by a massive 300,000.

[DesertRhino]

https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/wendy-davis-greg-abbbot-texas-poll-099303

Wendy Davis was only 6 points behind in 2013.
She lost to Republican Party nominee Greg Abbott, 59–38 percent. That’s 21 points.
And wait till after Trump fills Cowboy stadium and pats Cruz on the back.

[HamiltonJay]

Cruz getting 85% of the vote is nothing surprising, its a PRIMARY and he’s the incumbent for his party.

Speaking of Primaries.... lets look at the 2012 primaries.... shall we?

The Democratic primary in 2012 only attracted a total of less than 250k democrats bothered to vote.... 2018?? The Democrats put up over 1 Million votes... more than a 4 fold increase.

While republicans increased too, from about 1.1M to 1.5M, which is good for Cruz, it doesn’t equate to a cakewalk for him.

The sad reality in TX is, MOST PEOPLE DON’T VOTE! Turnout is sub 40%.... even in a presidential year... with that kind of turnout, and a far more motivated and organized D than R... the D definitely are likely to sneak out a win as long as the apathy of the right continues...

That said, I do expect Cruz to win, but I don’t think its going to be remotely by the margin it should be.

[HamiltonJay]

TX Primaries:

2012 democratic primary... TOTAL votes < 250,00

2018 democratic primary TOTAL votes > 1 Million!

You can keep denying the existence of an energized Democratic electorate, but the evidence is staring you in the face.. you are just refusing to see it.

The evidence of a motivated Democratic Base is EVERYWHERE... just because most of the special elections have been in deep red places, where even huge D turnout isn’t enough to win, don’t think that’s the case nationally...

The evidence is EVERYWHERE that they are going to turn out big... And while it may not matter in the deep south... in the upper midwest, and in purple and pink districts around urban centers across the country.. its going to make a big difference. Won’t affect the senate, because those are statewide, but in the house, you better believe this is a real threat.

[DesertRhino]

“Oh wait, Cruz’s spokesperson is saying it now.”

Oh wait, it’s his ex-spokesman, on MSNBC.

[Theo]

Insane because I think Cruz is a good representative, and I often defend him against anti-Cruz FReepers, even now, years after the primaries are over. Gotcha.

[SmokingJoe]

Cruz getting 85% of the vote is nothing surprising, its a PRIMARY and he’s the incumbent for his party.

I was making the point that Ted Cruz won by such a huge margin that there was no need for a high turn out in the GOP primaries. Usually, close contests bring in a higher turnout, yet Cruz managed to get over twice the votes that O’Rourke got in the primaries even with the GOP contest not close.

[Theo]

On this thread? Nobody yet. But the vitriol against Cruz continues on other threads, years after the primaries are behind us. Anti-Cruz FReepers are tiring.

[chris37]

You’re the only one attacking people that I see, and yes, Cruz lost some friends with his behavior in 2015, apparently. I do not hold anything that happened against him. Nothing.

I’d vote for him if I lived in Texas, no doubt about it.

[Theo]

Just took a quick look. Here’s one example of an anti-Cruz comment:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3686326/posts?page=69#69

They’re epidemic on FR. Still. And they’re pathetic.

[Theo]

Yes, I “attack” those who oppose a principled conservative Republican candidate. Yup. Drain the swamp.

[houeto]

Listen up Vandy. This is nothing but a bunch of liberal media BS! We’ve got this completely under control...because Texas!!! ;-)

[HamiltonJay]

Can’t have it both ways... 2012 was an open seat and competitive, yet turnout was lower.

Turnout is driven by MANY factors... not simply, a competitive race.. that’s flappy lip pundit ignorance....

Yes, a highly competitive race can drive turnout... but down ballot and other races can enjoy high results that have nothing to do with their own races.

Competitive races for the other side, can also drive turnout for the other side in primaries as well... depending on the dynamics and psychology fo the race and the voters.

The problem in TX, and its bigger than Cruz, is simply COMPLACENCY... With less than 40% of voters bothering to vote even in a presidential year, there is indeed a very very real possibility that a D can win statewide... not because the state is suddenly blue, but because the larger conservative majority has grown so complacent that they are beaten because they don’t show up....

TX looks very much like, unless the GOP gets their GOTV efforts rolling, is likely to happen sometime in the reasonably near future. I expect Cruz to win this, but I also do expect the margin to be closer than it should be....

The D’s are motivated, and organized... 4 times more D’s showed up to vote in this primary than the 2012 primary, and that was a presidential year. ANd yes, GOP primary turnout was up significantly as well, which is a good general sign for Cruz as well.. but its clear that what’s going on in TX is not just simply media nonsense like there was with sneaker abortion girl a few years back... There are underlying currents that really exist. They are being oversold by the media, but they aren’t completely manufactured.

However with all that said, what’s going to happen, is going to happen... and when it does a retrospective will happen... One way or another in a few months this will be history one way or the other.

[Lurkinanloomin]

I would also vote for Cruz if I lived in Texas, but I do hold it against him that he ran for President while Canadian.