PAR35: Let's see - out of roughly 17,000,000 vehicle sales, Tesla accounted for about 1%.
Figment: Not so difficult to increase sales from near zero.
adorno: It's very easy to overtake a market which is ceasing to exist, and the same reason that is seeing the sales of sedans going down, will eventually see EV sedans disappearing too.
What we're seeing is a shift away from low-markup sedans into higher-markup vehicles, which includes SUVs (soccer moms), pickups (single men, farmers, construction workers), and luxury sedans. We've seen this before, we've seen it decline, and we'll see it decline again.
Pickups (the new prices around here start around $40K I think, haven't shopped for one, but had a $45K club cab as a loaner during a repair to the sedan) are rugged, practical, mostly very well made, and stay in use by the original owner for a long time (and often enough, wind up in the used market). Sales of pickups epitomize the auto manufacturing and sales cycle.
SUVs seem to have a much broader price range, because the smaller ones aren't very "U", and the largest ones share components with pickups. While idling away a few minutes at the local dealer, I temporarily blacked out at the sticker prices for the full sized "soccer mom" transports. Many people will pay that premium in the belief that their wife and children will be safer in all weather, and of course be able to haul the kids, and the neighbors' kids, to and from school and sports etc..
In twenty years, perhaps half the sedans in urban areas will be EVs; five to ten years out, an EV will enter consideration as a household commuter vehicle in suburbia; in fifty years, whomever is alive then will be zoomin' around in hovercraft.
Good post.
Tesla sedans are performance low end luxury cars. The Model X is a crossover, and they have a pickup in development. Their semi truck is on the road being tested.
I wonder if the people who hate Tesla/Musk have any idea.
In twenty years, perhaps half the sedans in urban areas will be EVs; five to ten years out, an EV will enter consideration as a household commuter vehicle in suburbia; in fifty years, whomever is alive then will be zoomin’ around in hovercraft.
.........
Which means that peak oil demand is about 10 years out. Which means that the demand for dollars to fund the international oil trade will decline subsequently. Which means that the USA has get its trade deficit down so that the world is not awash in dollars as dollar demand for international trade—declines. So that the USA is not drowned by inflation starting in 10 years.
The USA is blessed to have real leadership.
Driverless Hover-Taxis to Take Off in Singapore
Phys.org | October 24, 2018
Posted on 10/24/2018 1:38:00 AM PDT by piasa
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3699318/posts