Posted on 10/18/2018 4:48:17 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX
LOOKING GOOD BUT DON’T RELAX TOO MUCH.....GET OUT AND VOTER EARLY AND OFTEN....KEEP OUR COUNTRY IN MIND.
You folks are going to be surprized at the voter turnout in the Panhandle of Florida. Why? Because Governor, Rick Scott, Ex-congressman, Ron DeSantis and our great POTUS, Trump and all the support folks from local, county, state & Federal Government have pitched in along with the power company folks to get things back to normal as safely and quickly as possible.
As for low life, Democrat for Governor, Andrew Gillum...he has done zilch, Nothing, Zippo,...a true “zero” from head to toe!!!
“We have to be very careful about telegraphing our victory.”
Cruz is doing just that in Tx. Make them blow big money. Now if Beto were smart enough to have moved just 10 miles north to NM he’d get that stepping stone/jump board in the Senate.
Beware....
Comparing VBM ballots returned to the 2014 VBM turnout. Focusing on the larger counties. This assumes all counties sent out ballots at the same time which is probably NOT correct, but I am not going to try to figure out the day each county mailed their ballots out.
Blue counties - Alachua (27%), Broward (35%), Leon (19% - impacted by hurricane), Miami-Dade (22%), Orange (32%), Osceola (51%), Palm Beach (21%)
Red counties - Brevard (28%), Charlotte (49%), Collier (61%), Duval (17%), Escambia (41%), Hernando (61%), Lee (56%), Manatee (41%), Pasco (57%), Polk (30%), Volusia (50%)
Besides Duval we are doing pretty well in returns compared to 2014.
Are you seeing a bump in R requested ballots? In terms of total requested ballots I am seeing Republicans net -69,807 ballots but I think that number was over -100k earlier this week.
Republican “Mail-In’ votes lead over Democrats increases to 44,000 votes, are posted by FDE at 10:00 am this morning.
Republicans get those “Mail In’ Votes in the mail today...do it...mail in every single “Mail-In” vote as you vote 100% GOP!!! Do, it, Do it, Do,it....like right now....TODAY.!!!
In Broward County, the Dems have 57,293 that have not been returned compared to 20,945 for the Reps. In terms of votes received, the Dems have 56,156 to the Reps 23,256.
In Miami-Dade the Dems have 74,617 that have not been returned compared to 40,552 for the Reps. In terms of votes received, the Dems have 55,253 to the Reps 53,310.
At the end, I expect the Dems to have a lead in mail-in votes and early voting. Historically, that has been the case. The Reps, according to LS, are running ahead of the 2016 and 2014 numbers and the Dems are lagging. That's a good thing, but until we see the final numbers, especially from Broward and Miami-Dade, it is a little early to be spiking the football. And early voting has not begun.
As long as the Reps are in shouting distance on election day, we have a good shot at winning the Senate seat and the governor's race. The wild card could be black turnout given that a black is running for Governor. He could spark a large black turnout that could impact the ticket further down. On the other hand, he may scare many independents and moderate Dems who will vote against him. FL is a true battleground state.
The independent vote in Florida are heavily weighted with disenfranchised Tea Party voters and those who were tired of the Jeb Bush GOP crowd. They will swing hard to the right when their numbers are counted.
The independent vote in Florida is heavily weighted with disenfranchised Tea Party voters and those who were tired of the Jeb Bush GOP crowd. They will swing hard to the right when their numbers are counted.
FYI .. be careful, as a lot of the numbers you are citing are from the completed 2018 primary.
To your point there are a lot of potential votes for the Democrats in Broward and Miami-Dade, but so far they are really under-performing in terms of RETURNED ballots so far. Obviously that could change.
Thank you! And please spread this around:
Next Governor gets to immediately appoint 3 Supreme Court Justices. is in Soros pocket. That means
IF GILLUM WINS, GEORGE SOROS WILL APPOINT THREE NEW SUPREME COURT JUSTICES!!!
Bye bye guns.
What numbers am I citing from the 2018 primary?
In Broward there are 118,519 Dem ballots not received compared to 42,240 Reps. Votes received are 22,749 Dem and 12,400 Rep. It makes my point that until we see more of Broward and Miami-Dade, it is a little early to draw conclusions. My point is that the Dems usually win the mail-in/early vote total. This normally comprises 60% of the vote. If the difference remains relatively small for the Dems, then we should make that up on election day.
Yes we are gaining about 3 thousand daily. Soon REQUESTS will pass 2016 Requests I believe. We will see. How does this affect overall turnout?
Not sure. If you are not aware, in FL it appears that if you request a VBM ballot, that request is good for the current and next election cycle. So anyone who wanted an absentee ballot in 2016 (with its higher turnout) will generally get an absentee ballot mailed to them for 2018.
So in requested terms that’s why you may not see a big drop-off.
Okay that makes sense.
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