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Posted on 11/04/2018 12:13:37 PM PST by Conserv
So true: let’s hope Floridians are not clueless on this.
Agree:
Never Mind Congress: Do Democrats Have Enough to Turn Red States Blue?
Forget Congress. State legislatures are where the real action happens. Roads. Schools. Sewers. And, of course, legislative district boundaries.
“Washington gobbles up all the oxygen, and there are thousands and thousands of reporters who are tracking it and watching the horse race polls. And, of course, you’ve got the president tweeting and driving the news cycle every day,” said Tim Storey, the director of state services for the National Conference of State Legislatures.
“But the real work is being done in state legislatures, the real work of governing, and most of it, by the way, is being done across the aisle in a bipartisan fashion,” Storey added.
Bipartisan, Storey may say, but most state legislatures are partisan affairs, controlled by Republicans. GOP state lawmakers control the House and Senate in 31 states. Democrats hold the majority in just 14 state legislative chambers and have hope of tipping the balance of power if only slightly.
Democrats like Jessica Post, the executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, want to change that this year. She’s hoping to see at least a few Republican-dominated states turn blue Tuesday.
There are 7,383 state legislators in the 50 states. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 6,066 — more than 80 percent of those politicians — face the prospect of losing their jobs this election.
....Dr. Carl E. Klarner, an election analyst, told the Washington Post that New Hampshire, Maine and Connecticut Democrats will likely be able to flip their state Senates from Republican to Democratic majorities. He also said Arizona Democrats might flip their state House if they can persuade people to vote Tuesday the way they did in 2016 in several districts that went for Hillary Clinton.
Klarner also said the Michigan GOP should lose its supermajority hold over that state’s Senate, if only because so many Republican lawmakers can’t run again because of term limits.
If Democrats can flip just one Republican seat in the New York Senate, they will wrest control of that chamber from the GOP. Democrats will then control all three branches of New York’s state government.
Colorado Democrats expect to retain control of the state House. If they can win just two state Senate seats, Dems will control the state’s legislature. The Colorado Sun reported that scenario prompted outside groups and candidates on both sides of the political spectrum to spend more than $7.5 million on the races.
....But Storey also said Republicans have never been in a stronger state legislative position. “You can look at that in terms of chambers; you can look at it in terms of legislatures; you can look at it in terms of members. There have been more Republican legislators in the past back in the early 1920s.”
Storey expects by the end of Tuesday night more than 90 percent of incumbents — Democrats and Republicans — will have won re-election.
But he also believes there will be a Democratic wave.
“The question is,” Storey said, “will it be a small wave or a fairly large wave?”
BUMP!
For the record.
Betfair:
“Consider the battle for the House of Representatives. Fivethirtyeight have been very strong about a Democrat majority since unveiling their model and have become more so over time, currently rating it 86% likely. By contrast, Betfair odds of 1.60 imply a mere 62% chance and have at no stage bettered 71%.”
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-mid-term-elections-betting-odds-and-analysis-301018-171.html
At Paddy Power, the over/under is Dems win 232 seats
https://www.paddypower.com/politics
(I think I read that right!)
I’m much more afraid about the communist getting the governorship of Florida than Scott losing to Nelson.
I’m also much more scared about the Democrat electorate so passionate about some of the biggest extremists ever to run for office. I’m talking about their candidate for Senate in Arizona, and their candidates for governor in Georgia and Florida.
““It’s a waw, Larry! It’s a waw!””
So many fun memories. Hadn’t heard that in years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vM2uevYzSU&t=125
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