Second District of Maine — Ballotpedia says in part:
No incumbent has lost an election for Maine’s 2nd District seat since 1916, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is targeting Poliquin. The group added challenger Jared Golden (D) to its “Red to Blue” program.[1][2]
Before Poliquin won the seat in 2014, Democrats held it for 20 years.[3] Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 9 percentage points. Donald Trump (R) won the district in 2016 by 10 percentage points.[4]
Voters will use ranked-choice voting for this office during the general election.[5]
22nd District of New York:
Claudia Tenney is an Incumbent, fairly conservative, Republican in a flipped district. Ballotpedia says this about this district to the east of Syracuse and Finger Lakes running from Utica in the North to Binghamton in the South:
This district is one of 108 congressional districts that intersects with one or more Pivot Counties. These 206 Pivot Counties voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.
The 206 Pivot Counties are located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. The partisan makeup of the 108 congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties is more Republican than the partisan breakdown of the U.S. House. Of the 108 congressional districts that have at least one Pivot County, 63 percent are held by a Republican incumbent, while 55.4 percent of U.S. House seats were won by a Republican in the 2016 elections.[3]
Now for the 32rd District of WV.
Ballotpedia says:
State Del. Carol Miller (R) and state Sen. Richard Ojeda (D) are running in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent West Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District.
Nick Rahall (D) represented the district from 1976 to 2014, when Evan Jenkins (R) defeated him by 10.8 percentage points. Jenkins won re-election in 2016 by 43.9 percentage points, while Donald Trump won the district by nearly 50 percentage points. Jenkins did not seek re-election in 2018, choosing to run for the U.S. Senate instead.
West Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes Boone, Cabell, Fayette, Greenbrier, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, McDowell, Mercer, Mingo, Monroe, Nicholas, Pocahontas, Raleigh, Summers, Wayne, Webster, and Wyoming counties.[1]
SO it appears to me that Republicans hold the edge but these are all targeted races getting more money, I imagine, for smear money.
I think anything that makes Carville say its time for Democrats to throw up and go to bed early is good to watch.
I am on record as calling for another inverted wastebasket.
I’m not sure I agree with Carville on the Nelson part. Incumbency is a powerful staying force. Trump won FL in 2016 by 100,000 points, but IIRC Rubio got elected by 700,000. We should expect incumbents to stay as a general rule. That’s why I predict relatively few Senate flips compared to others (but also relatively few House flips).