Sadly; I think you are correct. With the influx of Puerto Ricans after the hurricane and the restoration of convicted felon voting rights, it looks rather likely that Florida will flip in 2020. Hopefully Trump will still carry the other states he carried in 2016. If so; Floridas EV's will not sway the result.
After Beto, the trans-hispanic's near hit on Cruz, the real hispanic, I would not be quick to assume Texas is a sure thing in 2020.
I've come to the conclusion that as long as the black & Jewish vote is liberal monolithic, that is proof the libs game plan of identity politics is still successful.
When a Pubbie gets 14% of the black vote, against a black communist racist, and those on the right are ecstatic, that says a lot about how desperate we are.