Posted on 11/29/2018 12:36:35 PM PST by SMGFan
GOP path to retaking control likely goes through Trump-won districts now held by Democrats
— Following the 2018 election, it appears as though Republicans will only hold three districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Democrats are on track to hold 31 districts won by Donald Trump in 2016.
— As Republicans plot a House comeback in 2020, most of their obvious targets are in those Trump-won districts now represented by Democrats, many of whom just got elected.
House 2020: A first look
s of Wednesday afternoon, Democrats appeared likely to hold a 235-200 majority to start the next House, or a net gain of 40 seats, a handful more than it seemed like they had won in the immediate aftermath of the election. A lot of that has to do with the laborious and long vote count in California, where Democrats do better in the votes that are counted later in the process (there’s nothing new or unusual about this, by the way, so please look for conspiracies elsewhere). Earlier this week, engineer T.J. Cox (D) took the lead over Rep. David Valadao (R, CA-21), and as of this point Cox appears to be in the driver’s seat to win.
Assuming Cox wins and nothing else changes, Republicans would need to net 18 seats in 2020 to win back the House.
(Excerpt) Read more at crystalball.centerforpolitics.org ...
Not predictions. But many dismissed Sabato's 2018 analysis. "He predicted President Hillary!" But House analysis were really good ( prepared me for the -40 results back last Summer)
The solution is not for the Republicans to move away from Trump/MAGA. RINOs will get slaughtered of they do that.
What ever Sabato says DO THE OPPOSITE.
November 2018 was another reduction of RINOs in Congress. If candidates emerge with a clear message, those seats can be reclaimed.
The House was lost when 42 cowardly RINOs decided not to run again, taking their fat retirement cash instead, They didn’t care about the future of the country.
Stop posting this Dems talking point polls crap .
His State analysis was very bad.
He missed Ohio - Gov, Florida - Gov & Senate, Iowa - Gov & Georgia - Gov.
will be tough during 2020 primaries to see the RINOS. Hope a November victor is chosen. And GOP gets control of the House.
Redistricting & reapportionment can clean house in 2022.
The house was lost when mccain voted no on hc reform to spite President Trump
P.S. Sabato was correct about the House in 2018.
If the wall isn’t (mostly) built, and illegal immigration isn’t addressed by the candidates, the 2016 energy will be hard to repeat.
Stop peddling this fraud in a BAD Hair pieces crap .
None of the Donk candidates here used Trump in their ads... it was all about the crap about preconditions and “working with both sides” and “Washington is divided”..etc
1992...41 demoncrats resigned.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/11/near-record-number-of-house-members-not-seeking-re-election-in-2018/
Most of the swing was fraud, plain and simple.
Since the DemoKKKrat Media is in on it, it doesn't get exposed.
Sabato dropped the ball in the 2016 election because he and his fellow KKKrats figured it was "in the bag" for Felonia:
Clinton 322, Trump 216; 50-50 Senate; GOP holds House
- Larry "The KKKrat" Sabato
Now that the Fraud Machines in Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania have been fixed and the Once And Future Fraud Machine in Northern Mexifornia [KKKalifornia, Nevada, KKKolorado, Arizona & New MeKKKsico] is starting to hum, 2020 is beginning to look like a blowout for the KKKratzis.
Quelle surprise!
A DemoKKKratzi explaining away DemoKKKratzi election fraud...
He knew the state Fraud Machines had been fixed by his fellow KKKratzis after the failures of 2016.
I agree that Larry is a very thinly veiled democrat; however, the analysis he does of past elections are fascinating. His talent is analyzing what happened. He calls races based on polls, so he is no better than anyone else
I believe he singlehandedly cost George Allan his first senatorial loss and that is when he outed himself. Yes, his hair piece is awful...you are very funny!
no doubt they intentionally supported HRC, but in the past they were accurate in 2010, 2014 GOP House & Senate control.
Months ago the open house races losses were predicted as well as endangered GOP incumbents. Didn’t most GOP seats called a Democrat Pickup happen. Large # of Toss Ups got moved Dem gain before election. (Some here thought GOP would lose than 10 seats and gain far more in Senate. )
I believed months ago few to none Senate Democrats would be listed as Tilt GOP rather than Toss Up.
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