[papertyger]

The probability appears to have been exactly one, since that’s what happened.

If you do the math instead of employing circular reasoning you'll find the probability is so far from one it becomes preposterous.

[aNYCguy]

I was intending to get the other poster to show his math, since he's the one who made a claim about probability, but you'll do.

Please do show me the math and arrive at a probability.