There are a bunch of stories out claiming that they will be cheaper than regular cars in a few more years because of declining battery prices. I am sorry to tell you that this is mostly nonsense. It is based on the expectation that previous declines in price will continue. But that is not realistic in this instance. The prices are more likely to go up than down.
Most electric car batteries have been based on the 18650 3.7v Li-ion cell. I have been buying them from Chinese retailers for over ten years for flashlights and computer battery refurbishing. The price on these have not gone down much during that time period although the quality has. The thing that has changed with these cells is that you can now but then on Amazon and not have to wait for a month.
The tested capacity of the cheaper batteries has gone way down. If you order a batch of 18650 cells with an advertised capacity of 3500mah and you get them for $3 a piece... I can pretty much guarantee that they will not have even half that capacity when you test them. The Chinese are known for wildly exaggerating their specs, and that explains a good deal of the chattering by advocates about falling battery prices and better performance. It is mostly nonsense.
The price of a quality cell is not much different than it was 10 years ago other than that they are a commodity item whose price fluctuates depending on market conditions. So people can cherry pick their data to demonstrate non-existent trends. When there is more manufacturing capacity than demand the price goes down. But since the raw materials are also commodities subject to market conditions the cost to produce the cells goes up and down also. If the price for the finished product goes down too much the manufactures lose a lot of money and go out of business.
The cells themselves have changed very little; the way they make them has changed very little. The economy of scale is unlikely to lower the price much more than it already has. So no, electric cars are not going to be cheaper to produce than normal cars any time soon despite the greenie hype. Their predictions are about as reliable as the climate models used by Al Gore 13 years ago in his block buster movie. I'm other words they lie.
Freakin’ Google autocorrect makes me crazy!
Recalling your battery price trend...
Renewable Energy Will Only Be Possible With Massive Increases in the Supply of Critical Minerals
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3779316/posts
And that is not the half of it.
We have been reeled in by master fishermen.
Chum the water, cheap labor; will more than cover transportation costs.
Bait the hook with big flashy bucks $$$; look at the money Jack Ma made with Alibaba $$$, you can not count that high!
Nibbling, so play them slow for the big one; so cheap, no need for local US supplies.
Gently set the hook so they won’t notice; load them with our best engineers and workers, copy everything.
Now set the hook hard, no escapes; new rules for repatriation of profits from China.
Careful with the gaff, lots left on this one; the workers are striking for higher wages.
Ready to land the beauty; Tesla Gigafactory closes for lack of local sales, too bad, so sad.
What a delightful fish dinner; and the price of fish has just skyrocketed!
Nothing wrong trading with China, a fat Chinaman is less dangerous than one with nothing left to lose.
A coworker did QC in China for Dell, he said they would cut any possible corner but with tight specs and closely watched did very nice work.
A friend says, cut out the middle man, buy it straight from China, a good plan.
About a third of the stuff I buy is junk and was probably taken from the rework bin.
I’ve had better luck with stuff made for local consumption with Chinese instructions, Chinglish descriptions, software drivers all Chinese all the time…