Posted on 03/07/2020 6:09:00 PM PST by mdittmar
I’ve been buying!
“Timing the market is nearly impossible. “
If nothing else you are dollar cost averaging when the market is in a trough. Buy low sell high.
The buying opportunity comes after you’re dead.
Tulip bulbs :)
I think the most tulipy stocks are the cruise ships and movie theaters. It will probably take them years to recover, if they ever do.
In my inexpert observation, companies like Disney, with theme parks (about 40% of their revenues), cruise ships, and movies (think movie theaters) might be expected to take a hit. People would rather stay home than be exposed to crowds.
A lot depends on your patience, need for funds, and appetite for risk. Timing bottoms is rarely successful and frequently misses significant upward market movement. On a personal basis, I’m creating a ladder of ETF investments and purchased my first stocks at the end of last week. I’ve set my next entry point and will make adjustments depending on market performance.
Do not purchase stocks if you are a short term buyer relying on growth for a major purchase or if you can not sustain a loss equal to 50% of your investment without changing your lifestyle.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional, just an old guy who has lived through a bunch of cycles and seen the market rebound after each major decline.
I’ve been buying on down days - high dividend stocks, energy, and long call options for SPY, QQQ. Heavier then I probably should be as it will likely continue to fluctuate the next few weeks...but I think it will turn no later than April. I’m looking at travel stocks as they’ve been hit even worse, but think it will take longer for them to recover so biding my time - maybe by late March. Again all for longer term.
My buy calls are in the fall or even into next year so plenty far out should it take longer than that to resolve. The stocks themselves are long term holds at great prices considering their dividends.
If things stabilize at this level then I’ll start to sell some covered calls on the long term holds for extra cash, but too much fluctuation right now to do a lot of that.
Six Flags theme parks are getting cheap as well. (SIX)
Interesting. Thanks.
Dollar cost average.
How many people went bankrupt following this advice too zealously in 2008?
It all depends on your strategy. If you are dedicating a certain percentage of income to stock market with every paycheck - keep doing. It is about to reverse sooner or later.
If you are an active trader there is no signals to buy so far. I know they might be sudden but so is life. I was open here about selling shorts before the crash started and I keep it so far. It paid off big time. Now imagine if I were buying since first dip. Not a good idea.
It’s not over yet. Next week, real testing begins, and the number of victims will jump sharply over the next two weeks. The press will hype that into another panic. I expect another 2-4,000 drop.
I think the cruise ships and movie theaters will be very slow to recover too. I am reviewing indicators of market cycle and trying to decide if I should buy defensive sectors or short sectors that would be hurt. I am just not entirely sure that market cycles will follow expected movement with all the scare that is going on that the reactions and pull-back won’t replace a normal recessionary cycle.
Nobody knows. Don’t listen to anyone who tells you they do.
I see that the 2008 housing bubble crash took the S&P 500 about 4 years to recover while the NASDAQ took only a year to recover.
Excellent advice.
Now extend it to a few years earlier into dotcom bubble. NASDAQ is by the way more volatile. If you are all thrill you might trade oil instead. Making or losing fortunes overnight. And that’s twice a week:)
The stock market crashed every day this week but closed higher on Friday than when it started on Monday.
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