I’ve been playing the stock market since I was in college 30 years ago, and I know as well as anyone that it’s impossible to time it with precision. When it’s been going up like crazy and you think it’s become unmoored from reality, it can (and does) often go higher. When you think it has sold off irrationally and can’t go much lower, it can (and does) tank another 10, 15, 20% or more.
With all that said, I’ll tell you how I’m playing it at the moment. I strongly suspect that it’s going go lower within the next month or so... probably quite a bit lower. The economic impact of so many events being cancelled, so many people skipping trips, staying home, eating in instead of eating out, probably forgoing big ticket purchases like cars, etc. will have a very real impact on the economy. A coronvirus recession seems likely. I don’t think that “the Street” has fully baked that into equity prices yet. It’s always hard to feel the bottom, but what I try to do is look at really stalwart companies like Coca-Cola that will be fine in good and bad times... when companies like that sell off really badly, and their dividend yields (which are safe as safe gets) start to approach crazy high levels, then BUY, BUY, BUY. The last time that I really felt like that was in spring of ‘09 after Obama came in and everything sold off for 2 months.
Interesting. Thanks.
Agreed, not baked in yet. Not quite enough of normal life disrupted yet. Once we see a large quarantine area like is hitting Italy. Maybe $1.50 gas and the Trump gains get close to being wiped out and people panic to sell to capture some gain then start buying stocks. I can’t be only person or company preserving cash in case business or income dries up due to illnesses. There seems to be plenty of downside left.
Agreed, not baked in yet. Not quite enough of normal life disrupted yet. Once we see a large quarantine area like is hitting Italy. Maybe $1.50 gas and the Trump gains get close to being wiped out and people panic to sell to capture some gain then start buying stocks. I can’t be only person or company preserving cash in case business or income dries up due to illnesses. There seems to be plenty of downside left. Back the truck up under dow 20k
Coca-Cola that will be fine in good and bad times... when companies like that sell off really badly, and their dividend yields (which are safe as safe gets) start to approach crazy high levels, then BUY, BUY, BUY
ABSOLUTELY!