By simple estimates NY state could have up to 31000 dead at the end of this (assuming no therapy will help those who are vulnerable). That's a cumulative total until the epidemic subsides. It could be half that if you assume the coronavirus is no more contagious than a really bad flu epidemic (I assumed it will infect twice as many people as the influenza strain of 2017-2018).
So NY is looking at somewhere between 15000 to 31000 deaths because of the virus.
Many states aren't doing as badly and while I agree we should stop this shelter in place non-sense. Once we open back up for business the deaths will rise. I think people deserve to know so those that can choose to isolate can do so and those that continue with some personal protective equipment can feel confident they may be helping to prevent themselves from getting it.
At current hospitalization to death rates even if this is only as contagious as a bad influenza. You are looking at 250,000 (by my simple model). As much as I hope Hydroxychloriquine+azithromycin (and anything else you want to add on) will cut into that number. There are no statistics on how much it will do so. We don't even have enough supply to treat people on an outpatient basis if it did work. Which again is OK and we should get back to work but at least if this guy supplied a better model and we knew how well the "trump pills" work, people could start going back to work with some confidence they weren't playing Russian roulette.
Even if we go back to work, are you going to go to a crowded restaurant or any restaurant for that matter? The virus, until it subsides, is still going to make a ton of businesses fail. You getting on a plane? Are you going to visit NYC anytime soon? How about a movie theater or a concert. Anyone feel like going to one of those right now? The damage is done hopefully in a year or two things will get back to normal.
“We don’t even have enough supply to treat people on an outpatient basis if it did work.”
India just ordered 100 million doses of the malaria medicine. I guess they think it works.
When do we order 100 million doses?
If you use Italy as an example and take their death/1M people and extrapolate it to here it shows a total death count of a little over 83,000 not 250,000. I believe Italy is considered the worse case scenario so your simple model would seem to be way off